My issue with the warlock discard mechanic

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If Doomguard's Battlecry said: "Deal 6 damage to your Hero." instead, do you think it would be better, or worse than it's current incarnation?
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worse, because you would not be able to play a 5/7 charge for 5 mana alone. The nature of the deck promotes playing everything in your hand. The 6 damage would have to be able to kill you though, not have no effect if you were 6hp or lower.
Edited by AriseChicken on 6/28/2014 7:29 AM PDT
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06/28/2014 04:48 AMPosted by AriseChicken
worse, because you would not be able to play a 5/7 charge for 5 mana alone. The nature of the deck promotes playing everything in your hand. The 6 damage would have to be able to kill you though, not have no effect if you were 6hp or lower.


Only for that specific deck. In many ways it would be better, particularly for other deck-types. The damage dealt could help get out Molten Giant, you could reliably combo the Doomguard with other cards like Power Overwhelming, Demonfire, Abusive Sergeant, or Earthen Ring Shaman (to heal it after it charges into something, or yourself I suppose if you're still alive after taking 6 damage), etc.

My point is that there IS a cost to having to play out your hand. Even though Zoo does it's best to mitigate this cost by using a very specific (and limited) playstyle and mana curve it's still very much impacted by the discard Battlecry even if the Battlecry does not directly cause discard. You can't Doomguard and then PO reliably. You can't tap to see you're other options before playing Doomguard. You can't Doomguard and then DoA or SSC reliably. Any and all 4+ cost cards are a "risk" because you might end up having to discard them to either DG or Soulfire as it becomes too mana-intensive to play out your hand, etc. Also, for how fast Zoo tends to either win or lose, I have to say that 6 damage is generally not an issue, since it's life-blood is in board presence/control rather than, well, life-blood. What it might mean is that Flame Imp gets replaced by something else.

Zoo is FORCED to rely on top-decking in part due to the inclusion of Discard mechanics. Even for something as homogenous and spammy as Zoo (relative to late-game Control decks anyway), having to top-deck is not ideal.
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Tsenzei, I admire your patience, but we really should just ignore this thread and others like it. He's not here to discuss, he's here to cry, as evidenced by his statement that it "always" happens (when in reality, it cannot happen more than 40% of the time, just from raw probabilities).
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40% with lifetap and 2x copies of cards, good one
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06/28/2014 01:30 PMPosted by AriseChicken
40% with lifetap and 2x copies of cards, good one


The more cards you draw, the more likely you are going to have multiple discard effect cards (and thus not be able to play them out without discarding something). If you're trying to maximize your return from Doomguard or Soulfire, you are not using Life Tap till turn 7 (assuming fantastic top-decks with the most unfair scenario).

Personally, I don't think the probability matters much, simply because of the points I made above, but it is very possible to draw multiple discard-effect cards after mulligan, which then "forces" the effect. Especially if you're going second (and thus drawing more cards).

Tsenzei, I admire your patience, but we really should just ignore this thread and others like it. He's not here to discuss, he's here to cry.


Maybe, but I figure even if I don't convince AriseChicken that there are others who might read this, and it was the most recently active thread on the subject since I thought of making the point about health-loss vs discard. Plus, who knows, many people who've been dismissed as "whiners" can often end up making decent points or whatever after their emotionally-driven rhetoric dies down.
Edited by Tsenzei on 6/28/2014 3:30 PM PDT
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Pulling arbitrary numbers like 40% out of your behind do not make it reality. Can you show us how you came to this conclusion btw? Or the person who originally did?
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I really should just ignore you, but I'll be nice and show you the math.

You have four total cards that trigger a discard. The chance of NOT drawing one of them after 8 draws (turn 4) is 26*25*24*23*22*21*20*19/(30^8)=0.1, or 10%. This means that the chance of drawing one of them is 1-0.1, or 90%. You can also write this as a factorial to clean it up a bit, 26!/(18!*30^8), but with your limited mental capacities we should probably avoid math you cannot do on your fingers.

The chance to NOT draw any of the other 3 discards in those same 8 draws is now 27*26*25*24*23*22*21*20/(30^8)=0.14, or 14%. So again, the chance of having another one is 86%. This is slightly lower because we're not counting one of the first four, so we don't double-count it in the calculation.

These chance of both of these happening is .86*.90=77%, or actually quite a bit higher than I said originally. I estimated way down in case of a math error, so you can feel free to use 60% if you want, which is still quite high.

So yes, your statement that it "always" happens is not just ridiculous, it is mathematically impossible.

Of course it can and does happen and it's damn frustrating when it does. Somewhat ironically, I was doing the Shaman daily today and ran into a Zoolock. I had played a good game of removing his minions and making him lifetap himself to death and next turn I had lethal unless he pulled a Doomguard. His hand was empty and he pulled a damn Doomguard (his 2nd one too, already used one).

Homework for those who are tired of Miracle Rogues "always" having Auctioneer by turn 6: calculate the probability. It ends up being around 90% if you have two of them in your deck.
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So you are only calculating these odds for one card to loophole the drawback one time? You are not taking into account lifetap, the turns after turn 4, or the fact that the design of the deck is to dump a hand full of small minions?

you also ignore soulfire conveniently.. but based off of your witty insults and emotional investment here, it is obvious you love to play zoo warlock.
Edited by AriseChicken on 6/28/2014 8:51 PM PDT
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06/28/2014 08:48 PMPosted by AriseChicken
So you are only calculating these odds for one card to loophole the drawback one time?


If you have two (or more) cards in your hand that have a discard effect, you will trigger at least one of those cards discard effects.

The more cards you draw, the more likely you are to have multiple discarding cards, and thus be unable to avoid the effect.

That is what Zoid has been trying to convey to you, giving the probability of having 2 such cards in your hand by turn 5 (which requires you to go through at least 8 cards if you're going first, 9 cards if going second, thus improving the odds of getting multiple discard effects at the same time. Also, if you Mulligan anything other than a discard-effect card, you'll have even greater chance etc.).

You seem to be grossly misunderstanding the point they are trying to make. Mainly, that it isn't that easy to empty your hand. That Life Tap does not help you empty your hand. And that if your hand is not empty, you have a much greater chance of being forced to discard; as a result, it is unlikely that "every time" Doomguard or Soulfire is played, people avoid the discard effect. Thus, you are exaggerating the frequency with which those effects are avoided.

It's a minor point (again, because there are other costs to emptying your hand in the first place), but you seem intent on missing it so far.

Personally, I wish Zoid had left out their speculation regarding your mental capacity. It served no purpose and seems to have distracted you from their otherwise perfectly valid points. Then again, I wish a lot of things. Like that you would have picked up on the point they were making yesterday. Or that you knew the difference between Handlock and Zoo. Or that I had gotten a free Pizza today. Or that the US would stop trying to irradiate and/or grope me at the airport.

We don't always get things we wish for though, or at least not in quite as timely a manner as we'd have liked.
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For those of you saying Shaman's overload is the same, it is only the same when you win with an overload card. Regardless of how well you play and plan to spend your mana efficiently, you are still affected by it on your next turn. The cards themselves give you an immediate tempo boost due to their low cost, but you do get less mana the following turn. This is far more situational than the Doomguard/Soulfire situations.
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My argument is not that every time these cards are played, that the drawbacks are ignored. My point is that the drawback is ignored sooner or later. (not every time a card with a drawback is played) It is easy to pick apart a magic turn 5 scenario that was never brought up in the first place though.

BTW zoolock has an easier time empyting its hand than other decks, based on its design. I do not see how you find this difficult.
Edited by AriseChicken on 6/28/2014 10:06 PM PDT
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06/28/2014 09:53 PMPosted by Lolerster
For those of you saying Shaman's overload is the same, it is only the same when you win with an overload card. Regardless of how well you play and plan to spend your mana efficiently, you are still affected by it on your next turn. The cards themselves give you an immediate tempo boost due to their low cost, but you do get less mana the following turn. This is far more situational than the Doomguard/Soulfire situations.


Unless the total amount of mana you have remaining after Overload is still equal or exceeds the amount of mana you can spend on cards and/or your Hero Power (or at least those you can/would want to play anyway).

If you're in Top-Deck mode on turn 10+, for example, with a deck that has nothing costing over 6 mana, playing a Doomhammer will cause the subsequent Overload to always mean precisely nothing, short of a Naturalize or Coldlight Oracle (which, amusingly enough, can also be good ways to "force" discard effects or delay the use of those cards that have them).

The effect takes place, but it doesn't actually directly impact anything, and thus the negative aspects of that effect are avoided.

Even on earlier turns, if you're running low on cards in hand if you don't draw an expensive card than the Overload will accomplish zero negative results in that turn. This happens very often, but it is less visable, particularly if you're the opponent (and thus don't know the Shaman's hand/strategy).

You might say: "But Tsenzei, be honest, that's a bad spot to be in, and it means you'd have to skip out on Al'Akir and other high-cost Legendaries in your deck building, not to mention play out your hand etc., surely that's an effect!"

And I'd say: "Indirectly... YES."

But then that's the same thing with discard. It impacts order of play, deckbuilding, and encourages more risky play (overcommitment primarily).

I would also say, that a 5/7 charge on turn 7 isn't exactly a large tempo swing. It's not something you can't deal with with 7 mana, pending your hand, and it's unlikely that they'll be able to play anything particularly meaningful on top of it. Turn 8 you might need to worry about a Voidwalker or Shieldbearer protecting it. Turn 9 you might have to worry about Wolf or something, and Turn 10 a Shattered Sun Cleric, but even in those cases, you should be able to deal with those threats with the mana available on those turns... or bypass them to go for the kill.
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There are only 3 situations where a zoolock can throw out doomsguard on turn 4-5 without any discarded cards:
1) he/she empties hand on turn 4 and top decks doomsguard to play on turn 5
2) he/she empties hand except coin on turn 3 and top decks doomsguard on turn 4
3) he/she has only coin and doomsguard in hand at end of turn 4, top decks a 1 cost minion on turn 5

All three of these are very improbable. I play zoo and can testify that I end up holding onto doomsguard until turn 7-8 so I can clear my hand unless I need it on turn 5 or I have major board advantage and can afford discarding 1-2 cards. More often then I would like, I end up with both dooms and 1-2 soul fires in my hand by turn 6-7
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06/28/2014 09:56 PMPosted by AriseChicken
My argument is not that every time these cards are played, that the drawbacks are ignored. My point is that the drawback is ignored sooner or later. (not every time a card with a drawback is played) It is easy to pick apart a magic turn 5 scenario that was never brought up in the first place though.


Replying to you is like kicking a retarded puppy, but for some reason I feel compelled to keep doing it...

So now that it's been proven you were just whining about it "always" being ignored, you're changing it to "ignored AT SOME POINT" every game. In that case, unless you're bad, you should be "ignoring" overload every game too. Case in point: yesterday I was doing the Shaman quest and played a Lightning Bolt and a totem on turn 3, then Feral Spirit on turn 4. I had no 1-cost cards, so the overload from Lightning Bolt cost me absolutely nothing.

As Tsenzei pointed out as well, once you reach 8-9 mana crystals you're going to be "ignoring" a lot of overload costs, since you simply have more mana than you need. This allows you to gain massive board control one turn and not worry about the cost on the next turn, like the time a Shaman completely wiped out everything I had AND got an Earth Elemental out (Lightning Storm, 2x Forked Lightning, Elemental). Sure, he had no mana next turn, but he had nothing to play either and had just killed 4 minions with 4 or 5 health each.
Edited by Zoid on 6/29/2014 8:59 AM PDT
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Putting words in my mouth and then pivoting to said imaginary argument isn't really helping your case, you're just changing the subject. Facing this every game does not mean that every soulfire and doomguard is loopholed. But this comes into effect vs every zoo lock during the course of the game. You are working yourself up over a magical situation that was never mentioned, and your insults are not good.

Furthermore on turn 8-9, overload does effect you. I do not play a zoo lock where I hold zero or 1 card in my hand. This is why domguard/soulfire should be fixed imo. Projecting your zoo warlock playstyle onto a shaman does not work. I actualy have multiple cards in my hand. My deck isn't young priestess/imp/abusive/voidwalker/leper/knife juggle etc.

Discard needs an adjustment
Edited by AriseChicken on 6/29/2014 10:17 AM PDT
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Well, I've said all I'm going to here, you're just pissed off you lost and refuse to see any other perspective but your own. Maybe if you figure out how to avoid the cost of your overload cards, you'd actually be able to beat Zoo. Really, Shaman should be very strong against Zoo with the cheap taunts (Earth Elemental, Feral Spirit), cheap AOE (Lightning Storm, Forked Lightning) and divine shield killers (Earth Shock).

If you're so sure it happens "every game", go ahead and play one and see what happens. They're super cheap to make.
Edited by Zoid on 6/29/2014 12:16 PM PDT
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06/29/2014 10:13 AMPosted by AriseChicken
This is why domguard/soulfire should be fixed imo. Projecting your zoo warlock playstyle onto a shaman does not work. I actualy have multiple cards in my hand. My deck isn't young priestess/imp/abusive/voidwalker/leper/knife juggle etc.


Other than the Voidwalker and Flame Imp not being available to Shaman, nothing is stopping you; and it's not like you don't have cards that wouldn't fit well into a Zoo style. If you wanted to maximize your returns for, say, Earth Elemental, or dodge the accassional Lightning Bolt or Feral Spirit Overload you could very much just go for low-mana curve aggro-control or rush build, it would undoubtedly look very similar to Zoo. If you "lack card draw" you can replace some of the other cards with Loot Hoarders or something similar and you'll generally end up with a similar amount of draw as the typical Zoo would by turn 7 (pending whether or not the variant uses Mortal Coil I suppose).

People don't do it for several reasons:
1. It hasn't been popularized.
2. Earth Elemental is huge but doesn't have charge and is vulnerable to TBK on top of other hard removal, and Doomhammer (another alternative) while a powerful weapon is vulnerable to Harrison Jones and Ooze (basically, an issue based on qualities not related to their downsides).
3. Most people think Zoo is better currently, which may or may not be true, but that's not because of avoiding downside effects later in the game. It's not an issue with Soulfire, Succubus, or Doomguard discard mechanics.

But none of this is a prohibition against a Rush-style Shaman deck, and it does better than people tend to first think too.

Regardless, whether it's a good idea or not, the point is that it's very possible to bypass the negative effects of Shaman somewhat reliably. All it requires is that you restrict your build and playstyle. And even if you continue to play the current standard of Shaman, there will be plenty of times that Overload simply doesn't impact your play, even while holding multiple cards (you don't always want to play them all after all, if you did, you wouldn't have so many cards in your hand near the late-game) whether you notice it or not at the time.
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Zoo warlock does not restrict its playstyle to get around drawbacks. The nature of the deck promotes ignoring drawback with discard. My current deck is tailored for the druid/rogue/warlock only metagame. Adding more overload for the sake of adding overload does not help me. I actually have to pay the drawback, Even if i cut argent commander for more weenies, I am still paying the drawback. I am creating a weaker deck mana curve wise. I am also not doing this with lifetap.

BGH/black knight vs earth ele is also an EXTREME tempo loss. The reason why is overload. I cannot circumvent this for no drawback like doomguard/soulfire. Earth ele does not even have charge either. I do not have lifetap available every turn to promote the low mana curve and high NUMBER of cards spammed form the hand each turn.

The only good suggestion in the thread was perhaps making doomguard/soulfire cause damage to the user as opposed to discard.. and hey... If you win the game on the turn that you used a card with a drawback, (\where god forbid you pay the downside) then you don't pay the drawback, because the game ended on that turn, right?

Even if you actually had to pay full cost for your cards with discard, it wouldn't matter if you won the game on that turn either. Why does every warlock player think this is an awesome situation for shaman, (ending game = no drawback right) but yet when it comes to their class, they also need to be able to ignore drawbacks, as well as be able to end the game?
Edited by AriseChicken on 6/29/2014 6:40 PM PDT
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