StarCraft II: Balance Snapshot
One of the many tools that are used to assess balance in StarCraft II are the relative win rates for each race versus the others called adjusted win percentages. What's an adjusted win percentage? While the math behind calculating an adjusted win percentage is extremely complex, an adjusted win percentage can be summed up as the 'true' win percentage of a given race, produced by removing the skewing effects of the matchmaker and factoring in player skill. Combining information from millions of games being played, hundreds of thousands of players, their hidden skill rating, and a little math, we can generate reasonably accurate figures to compare how successful each race really is versus the others.
We can then categorize these stat by league, region, specific stretches of time, or any other way we might want to arrange the data for analysis. The end result is the information that we use (in combination with many other resources) to piece together a picture of what current StarCraft II balance looks like.
Before you review these numbers, we'd like to explain what these ratios mean:
These numbers aren’t static. They shift almost constantly with the metagame as newly discovered strategies spread through the community, and that heavily influences how they’re interpreted. Also, due to the way the math works out we will almost never see ratios of 50:50; we expect a variance of +/- 5% in these results. So, if a win/loss ratio is approximately 55%:45%, this would indicate that the matchup is well balanced—we expect those numbers to fluctuate within that range to some degree. Ratios just outside of that range are still within acceptable boundaries. It is only after win/loss ratios exceed 60%:40% that there is an indication that a potential imbalance might exist. We keep a sharp eye on these variations from day to day and week to week, staying constantly alert for where the numbers are changing and what the possible causes could be. It’s fairly common, for example, for a new strategy or build order to skew the numbers in favor of a particular race for a brief period, until the metagame catches up and the counter strategies spread through the community. Sometimes it’s possible to see this effect reflected in the balance numbers from region to region. A good example in this snapshot are the differences between the win/loss ratios for the Master/Grand Master Leagues in North America and Europe versus the same leagues in Korea.
Still, while they may be interesting, it’s important to emphasize that these numbers aren't the last word in our balance analysis. It’s easy to make too much of them, and there’s a lot more that goes into balance analysis. It's best to consider stats like these as a point of interest and one step along the path to fine tuning balance, rather than the final destination.
Now that you might have a clearer idea regarding what they are, we'd like to share some recent adjusted win percentages from September 13th 2011 for North America, Europe and Korea.
| All leagues | North America | Europe | Korea |
|---|---|---|---|
| PvT | 53% | 54% | 49% |
| PvZ | 47% | 48% | 49% |
| TvZ | 50% | 52% | 49% |
| Master + GM only | North America | Europe | Korea |
|---|---|---|---|
| PvT | 48% | 49% | 43% |
| PvZ | 57% | 57% | 48% |
| TvZ | 59% | 57% | 52% |
Comments (554)
1. I appreciate Blizzards efforts to make this a balanced game
2. I am not a very skilled StarCraft player, but I understand statistics very well
Although these statistics are accurate, they do not mean anything for balance. No matter how imbalanced the races are, the statistics will look mostly the same. The only statistics that count are those taken from the bronze, GM, and maybe master leagues. To understand this, consider a platinum player. If the player's race is OP, instead of the players win percentage increasing, the player will simply get a higher ranking, which will result in more games lost and balance the win percentage to approximately 50%. In the very top and bottom of the ladder, there is nowhere to advance/regress respectively, and therefore at those ends of the ladder, the win ratio will truly reflect the balance of the race.
"it’s important to emphasize that these numbers aren't the last word in our balance analysis. It’s easy to make too much of them, and there’s a lot more that goes into balance analysis. It's best to consider stats like these as a point of interest and one step along the path to fine tuning balance, rather than the final destination." This does not consider everything.
I don't know why other people can talk about this without the game length information, we have to ask for this information to Blizzard.
INcontrol: if statistics matters? where is the game length statistics? is missing... so how can you be so sure about a statistics result that Blizzard in not showing? I think some posts are "pure vanity"
Actinis... The Loving Epic Gamer
for real stats you have to look at tournament results at the highest levels. When you do that you see a HUGE imbalance that blizzard simply can not argue.
I am talking about many many top level tournaments, not just the GSL...but as the biggest tournament in the world its a good example of the imbalance. 20 T's in a 32 man tourny! Endless TvT semifinals and finals. Look at the proportion of Terrans with Top 4 finishes.
Yeah, I said it. Blizzard's sacred cow. The Marine. NERF THAT BABY!
Patch 1.5: Marine ROF reduced.
I like Terran... terran has the vast potential to whoop up any of the other races. Does that mean terran has the advantage, thus the game is imbalanced? I certainly hope so. lol Cuz I'm terran! If blizzard nerfs me, I'll all of the sudden become a big Protoss or Zerg player.
all ya'll are a bunch of gamer snobs. play the game bet better. because guys like Idra and Boxer would still beat you in a mono-battle, even if you had access to use all of your race's units.
People should just embrace change and get better. Instead of complaining, learn the other races and that will give you more insight into their strengths and weaknesses.
Please do not look at my profile and complain that I haven't played enough to know better. I have been playing enough to know that complaining and cheating are no way to go through life... especially when it is just a video game!
thats like asking zerg to get a spinecrawler before a queen.
You trolling?
Only Master+GM of Korea matters. EU and NA Masters are full of noobs (including myself) who dont play the game to its full potential. All good players have korean accounts and play on their servers.
High level PvT is currently a joke. In big tournoments PvT are an EYESORE to watch, as one the following happens:
Hey im Terran I have emp, go .... urself dear P.
Hey im Terran I have 1/1/1, go .... urself dear P.