First, let’s take a look at what we’re seeing on the ladder. These are what the matchup win percentages look like per league across the three major regions, from the start of the season through today:
Click here for the win percentages
Please keep in mind these are not straight-up win percentages. They’re win percentages with player skill factored out. When we grab win/loss data for balance purposes, we categorize each game with 2 different variables per side: one being player skill and other being race strength. So by factoring the player skill out, we are able to more accurately check how each race is doing at each skill level.
As you can see, Protoss does have an edge in PvT that slightly surpasses the minor advantages existing in other matchups. Nonetheless, the popular belief that Terran almost never wins vs. Protoss can be put to rest. The data does suggest that yes, we probably want to make some minor balance tweaks if this trend continues, but we don’t have a clear indication that major changes are called for.
We absolutely hear your concerns about GM league representation not being evenly distributed. Obviously, we’d like to see even numbers of players at every skill level, but this one in particular presents two issues: it’s a very small sample size, and it doesn’t represent the pro level very well in all three regions. This is not to say that GM representation balance doesn’t matter – it does matter. We simply believe in putting a bigger emphasis on the pro level as well as all of the other league levels.
Speaking of the pro level, we’ve been getting a lot of feedback from pro players that is contrary to what we were hearing from them last season. This seems to be mostly because of the results for Protoss pros this week in Proleague play. It’s the only major tournament going on right now, and it represents a sample size that is too small to draw any broad conclusions from, but Protoss players have lost at a noticeable clip in that tournament. As of this writing, they’ve recorded only 11 wins in 35 non-mirror matchups. As always, we’re closely following everything, and fortunately we have the WCS qualifiers getting underway to look at.
This is a time to continue discussing and reading your feedback on ways to slightly nerf Protoss or slightly buff Terran in the PvT matchup. Our multiplayer team’s focus going forward in the next weeks is definitely on this area. However, if the ladder data changes and/or if the pro level continues to skew, we’re open to changing our direction. We’ve seen plenty of times in the past where meta games change at the pro level, and that translates to changes in balance at other skill levels on the ladder.
Please understand: we’re looking most closely at areas that you, the players believe to be the biggest issues. Please continue providing your constructive feedback. We always want to be as sure as possible when making balance updates to the game.
Thank you very much!