StarCraft® II

Balance test map follow-up

Posts: 3,947
Basically the reason there is a 50% winrate, as well as alot less terrans in the upper leagues....

all the master terrans are in diamond getting 50% winrates vs lesser players.
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Posts: 879
Zerg seem to have that same edge against toss that toss has with terran. I think mutas need a second look or a tech buff to Phoenix range upgrade like moving that upgrade to cybercore. Or i can also see an upgrade to increase photon cannon damage vs light air units. idk, just sayin.
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Posts: 3,947
01/09/2014 07:49 PMPosted by Azoryen
Please keep in mind these are not straight-up win percentages. They’re win percentages with player skill factored out. When we grab win/loss data for balance purposes, we categorize each game with 2 different variables per side: one being player skill and other being race strength. So by factoring the player skill out, we are able to more accurately check how each race is doing at each skill level.

Can anyone explain what this means plz?


Indeed, im trying to get exactly what hes saying here...
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Posts: 15,024
Please keep in mind these are not straight-up win percentages. They’re win percentages with player skill factored out. When we grab win/loss data for balance purposes, we categorize each game with 2 different variables per side: one being player skill and other being race strength. So by factoring the player skill out, we are able to more accurately check how each race is doing at each skill level.

Can anyone explain what this means plz?
i am also curious.

i don't know how they isolate player skill from race strength.
only thing i can think of is win rate in mirror match-up.

hummmm.
Edited by Oboeman on 1/9/2014 7:57 PM PST
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Posts: 266
01/09/2014 07:49 PMPosted by Azoryen
Please keep in mind these are not straight-up win percentages. They’re win percentages with player skill factored out. When we grab win/loss data for balance purposes, we categorize each game with 2 different variables per side: one being player skill and other being race strength. So by factoring the player skill out, we are able to more accurately check how each race is doing at each skill level.

Can anyone explain what this means plz?


I think it means that they are factoring out MMR discrepancies of a certain level. Since the ladder is designed to promote a ~50% winrate, it can sometimes match you up against players far above or far below your skill level at times. If you remove those outliers, you can look purely at matches in which players of very similar MMR are playing. I think that's what they're doing.
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Posts: 799
How does one factor out player skill?

That's all I don't understand. What variables in player skill can affect a winrate? In my opinion, too many to be able to factor it out accurately.
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Posts: 1,301
Because...

LADDER WINRATES MEAN NOTHING WHEN THERE IS A MATCHMAKING SYSTEM ENSURING 50/50 WINRATES.

So unless that quote means something special, I'd say:

STOP TRYING TO FOOL US
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Posts: 7,817
Could we see the metric that you use to calculate these win percentages? How do you define "skill". Is it fair to say that right now the terran "template" subset might be more exclusive than the protoss one?

It just seems a bit odd that these are "skill adjusted" winrates. What does that mean?
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Posts: 669
I thought the ladder system was designed to pretty much ensure everyone has a 50/50 win rate? If so, why do these ladder stats mean anything at all? It would mean that lesser Protoss players were being matched with better Terrans to even out the winnrate.

When Protoss makes up 48% of GM global, something is wrong. Failure to address it will only hasten SC2's demise and loss of player base.
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Posts: 33
01/09/2014 07:20 PMPosted by Grubby
Swarm Hosts are boring and drab, and too strong on certain maps. Please reduce emphasis of free units like Locusts. Locusts have 65 hp and insane DPS, and come 2 at a time and can travel halfway across map on small maps. They also produce extremely stale games. And oftentimes the P has 0 chance to win if the Z is playing it out without major mistakes. PLEASE to save SC2 esports do something about them.


You have got to be joking.
Edited by Widowmaker on 1/9/2014 8:07 PM PST
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Community Manager
Posts: 1,266
I apologize for my typo on that image. It's hard to overstate how frustrating it is when the calendar flips to a new year and my brain completely fails to notice that I've just typed out the previous year even while proofreading.

And then that typo is the only thing anyone can see.

*hangs head and slinks out*
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Posts: 17,363
Because...

LADDER WINRATES MEAN NOTHING WHEN THERE IS A MATCHMAKING SYSTEM ENSURING 50/50 WINRATES.

So unless that quote means something special, I'd say:

STOP TRYING TO FOOL US


Try actually reading before posting, please.



Can anyone explain what this means plz?
i am also curious.

i don't know how they isolate player skill from race strength.
only thing i can think of is win rate in mirror match-up.

hummmm.


I doubt that's how it'd work, because it'd be just as skewed (if someone is better/worse in mirrors). There are a couple ways i could think of, but they're all kind of wonky

I would like them to tell us though, because there are too many to try to guess. I doubt they will though, blizz plays it close to the vest, and this is probably proprietary

I apologize for my typo on that image. It's hard to overstate how frustrating it is when the calendar flips to a new year and my brain completely fails to notice that I've just typed out the previous year even while proofreading.

And then that typo is the only thing anyone can see.

*hangs head and slinks out*


Like the worst typo you could make. x.x
Edited by Arianity on 1/9/2014 8:08 PM PST
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Posts: 11
WHAT DO YOU MEAN BY "RACE STRENGTH" DAVID KIM. ONE RACE STRONGER THEN OTHER????
SHOW US WIN/LOSS WITHOUT COOKING THE NUMBERS WITH YOUR MAGIC FORMULA
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Posts: 7,817
I apologize for my typo on that image. It's hard to overstate how frustrating it is when the calendar flips to a new year and my brain completely fails to notice that I've just typed out the previous year even while proofreading.

And then that typo is the only thing anyone can see.

*hangs head and slinks out*


I forgive you.

But, if you may be so kind, what does "skill adjusted" mean? Could you show us the vanilla stats and we can go from there?
Edited by nomufftotuff on 1/9/2014 8:08 PM PST
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Posts: 266
Could we see the metric that you use to calculate these win percentages? How do you define "skill". Is it fair to say that right now the terran "template" subset might be more exclusive than the protoss one?

It just seems a bit odd that these are "skill adjusted" winrates. What does that mean?


Means that they throw out all the matches where the two players MMR is "x" amount different. We don't know what "x" is.

01/09/2014 08:05 PMPosted by Jonathan
I thought the ladder system was designed to pretty much ensure everyone has a 50/50 win rate? If so, why do these ladder stats mean anything at all? It would mean that lesser Protoss players were being matched with better Terrans to even out the winnrate.


No, you can factor those matches out based on MMR, making the statistics "skill-adjusted" as they say.
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Posts: 7,817
Means that they throw out all the matches where the two players MMR is "x" amount different. We don't know what "x" is.


I'm not sure if mmr is the best indicator of what we can qualitatively define as "skill", MMR can be heavily swayed by things like inherent game balance. It could very much be fruit of the poisonous tree, so to speak (usually in the high levels of play).
Edited by nomufftotuff on 1/9/2014 8:11 PM PST
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Posts: 33
Well, TvP is a unbalanced matchup that requires much more effort on the Terrans side to win and zerg isn't far off it as well. To put it bluntly the very core mechanics of protoss seem off. With simple clicks of mouse for exmaple forcefield, storm, blink, as Destiny put it it feels 'dirty'.

That isn't going to change so a MSC or better a big phottonoverchage nerf would be nice to punish greedy play. As of now Protoss can fend off early aggression with literally 0 units since MSC is so op. Toss is dominant in late game so let's try to make it a little harder for them to get into the late game.
As for Oracles, it isn't too bad if you scout them, but if you do not get a 100% perfect scout they oracles will own you and gg. Not exactly fair either.

Also give us stats for the entire season 6 or was that completely ignored, I'm sure they would indicate an eve greater dominance of protoss over terran/zerg.


we should listen to this silver league advice ! :)

Nice to see a lot of people that needs to "l2p" rather than crying everyday.
Give them stats and clear explanation, resorts to "this is fake" " this nerf is not enough!" . That kind of attitude actually makes sense why don't they improve.

Sweet tears :))

Not sure what to make of your post =/
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Posts: 325
!@#$ YOU DAVID KIM. YOU ARE THE WORST BALANCE DESIGNER IN THE HISTORY OF COMPETITIVE GAMING.

YOU CAN GO %^-*ING BAN MY ACCOUNT IF YOU WANT BECAUSE THAT'S HOW MUCH I'M GOING TO SACRIFICE JUST TO LET YOU KNOW YOU ARE A !@#$ING PIECE OF %^-* AND WE ALL HATE YOU.

WHAT ABOUT THE !@#$ING 25 ALL INS PROTOSS HAS?

WHAT ABOUT LATE GAME DEATHBALL THAT IS JUST A-MOVE?

FORGET WIN PERCENTAGES FOR ONE SECOND, WHAT ABOUT HOW THERE ARE ABSOLUTELY NO TERRANS IN HIGHER LEAGUES?

%^-* YOU DAVID KIM

!@#$ YOU


WHOAH! Ok... Thats a little... Over the top... I can say that we all dont hate him... Hes a nice person and he really is just doing his job and has a lot more stat info than the average player. But since the terran population has decreased and the protoss population increased it is hard to get a better assessment of balance. But please! There is really no need for this anger!


I can feel his frustration but I won't blast him like that. while SC2 is in this situation you can easily play another game until the game is acceptable to you. I understand that SC2 is like some people's life but you can wait it out until that time.
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