01/09/2014 06:21 PMWe absolutely hear your concerns about GM league representation not being evenly distributed. Obviously, we’d like to see even numbers of players at every skill level, but this one in particular presents two issues: it’s a very small sample size, and it doesn’t represent the pro level very well in all three regions. This is not to say that GM representation balance doesn’t matter – it does matter. We simply believe in putting a bigger emphasis on the pro level as well as all of the other league levels.
Posted by Dayvie
It's not just GM though, it's the top percent of your player base. If GM is too small a sample, then expand it and give us the stats. We know what they're going to say. They're going to show that around a quarter of the population is Terran, a small fraction is Random, and the rest is split between zerg and protoss with a heavy protoss bias in the NA and EU regions.
I don't understand how you can account for skill without taking into consideration this shift in racial populations. If one race loses more often to another, their apparent skill will decrease across the board and they will appear slightly stronger in their other non-mirror matchup because on the average the players they face in that matchup will be slightly less skilled than them. This is reflected in your stats. A large imbalance in TvP causing a much smaller imbalance in TvZ.
Accounting for skill will make all matchups tend towards 50%. I have not seen a compelling case from Blizzard that their method of skill removal takes into account the potential for a large imbalance that would cause apparent skill to be reasonably different from where 'actual skill' would be. The relative size of the terran population would be indicative of such a problem. The argument could be made that the other two races simply have better players by chance, but not only would that be improbable, the racial imbalance at the beginning of Wings tells the opposite story. If I remember correctly, 'skill removed' win percentages weren't a huge problem then either.
01/09/2014 06:21 PMIt’s the only major tournament going on right now, and it represents a sample size that is too small to draw any broad conclusions from, but Protoss players have lost at a noticeable clip in that tournament. As of this writing, they’ve recorded only 11 wins in 35 non-mirror matchups.
Posted by Dayvie
This supports my idea that you're not taking into consideration population differences. There is a massive difference between the number of Protoss and the number of Terran in SPL. The average skill level of the terrans being fielded is likely higher than the average protoss. Teams are wagering, for example, that their 21st best protoss is a better bet than their 8th best Terran. That's kind of a large gap.