SC2 Ladder Analysis: What YOU Need to Know

(Sticky)

Posts: 1,893
LEAGUES

League Overview

It is not currently known how leagues are divided, but it is certain that they each contain a certain percentile of players. I estimate that to be this:

Top 10% - Diamond
10-25% - Platinum
25-45% - Gold
45-70% - Silver
70-100% - Bronze


To me it would just be more logical to have:
20% - Diamond
20% - Platinum
20% - gold
20% - silver
20% - bronze

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Posts: 394
You shouldve just said If you win 5-0 in your placement matches you can only get platinum and that Diamond must be earned. :P
Instead of:
"It is not possible to be placed into the highest league, only promoted into the highest league. "
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Posts: 8
Pretty sure it's

Diamond League - Koreans
Platinum League - Koreans who weren't Korean enough + other asians
Everything else League - Everything else.
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- StarCraft
Posts: 2,329
LEAGUES

League Overview

It is not currently known how leagues are divided, but it is certain that they each contain a certain percentile of players. I estimate that to be this:

Top 10% - Diamond
10-25% - Platinum
25-45% - Gold
45-70% - Silver
70-100% - Bronze


To me it would just be more logical to have:
20% - Diamond
20% - Platinum
20% - gold
20% - silver
20% - bronze


It's not 20/20/20/20/20 because each league becomes slightly more exclusive than the one below it. I originally made that post in April, but according to the most recent parses it seems to be closer to 5/15/22/22/33 (still subject to change as more and more people get promoted into Diamond) so it looks to be pretty close.

My guess for the pyramid-style distribution was based on the skill curve of the game. Starcraft is an extremely competitive game. The skill gap of the top 20% is much greater than the bottom 20%. In the bottom 20% you're probably making a lot of fundamental mistakes and there are tons of areas for improvement. The higher up the skill curve you get, the greater the skill disparity. If you take ICCup as an example, let's say the top 1% may be A, then the top 10% might be B, then the next 40% might be C level. The bottom 20% would all be D but the top 20% would cover a much much wider range of skill levels.
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Posts: 59
Playing solo matches, I saw my opponent was "favored". In game I asked him if he saw the same thing. He said he saw, "even match". Any explanation? I know this went on in Beta too.
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Posts: 98
Playing solo matches, I saw my opponent was "favored". In game I asked him if he saw the same thing. He said he saw, "even match". Any explanation? I know this went on in Beta too.


Eh, I wouldn't take that as entirely honest, sounds to me like he was just leaving himself some fallback room in case he lost lol, but if you saw it in beta...
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- StarCraft
Posts: 2,329
Playing solo matches, I saw my opponent was "favored". In game I asked him if he saw the same thing. He said he saw, "even match". Any explanation? I know this went on in Beta too.


This is a great question and there's a reason I didn't cover this in my post. It's a bug that can't be confirmed. This is only conjecture, but I believe the game is erroneously comparing your displayed rating to your opponent's MMR. Let's use this scenario:

You have a rating of 1000 and an MMR of 1200.
Your opponent has a rating of 1200 and an MMR of 1300.

His MMR is higher than your rating, so he appears as Favored to you. Your MMR is equal to his rating, so you appear as Even to him.

Over time, your MMR and displayed rating will converge. Now, there's no way to 100% verify this because the MMR is hidden, but it would explain why players who typically have very few games played (that is, below 30 or so) constantly say that they are never favored. If your MMR starts at, say 1500 but your rating starts at 0, that is a lot of games that you have to play before you catch up to your MMR. Once that happens, you may start being paired against people who actually have lower MMRs than your displayed rating.

If true, this is a bug because it should be comparing your MMR to your opponents MMR, or your rating to your opponent's rating, and not cross-comparing different rating types.
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Posts: 394
Lol its funny as soon as i started reading this i was like they took this system from WoW... then later you mention it.... the MMR system took a while to to pan out in WoW. I had alot of hair pulling weeks trying to get to 2200 when i started a new team since my MMR was so high and the points given did NOT reflect the full range of players. A lot of my friends could hit 1500 about 5-10 games faster than my 2200 RD
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Posts: 73
So Rating is different from MMR? Is there any way to look up your MMR or is it completely hidden?


MMR is hidden, even in the WoW system. It's used simply to match opponents and figure out the correct points to award in a win/loss to help your rating reach your MMR in a less volatile way.

Say you have MMR 2300 with a rating of 500, playing MMR 2400 with a rating of 2400.

If the 2300 player wins, he would get a lot of points (500 rating to 2400, huge underdog)
However, the 2400 team would lose points equivalent to an even match, (2400 lost to 2300, he was a slight favorite)



If the 2400 player wins, he get a decent increase, as a 2400 just beat a 2300.
But the 2300 player loses very very little, since he was 500 and lost to a 2400 (hardly an even match).




Basically you award points based on your ACTUAL rating, compared to your opponents MMR.

you then take a hit or boost to your MMR based on your win/loss.





It's just a fairer way to award points and help high MMR player climb the ladder faster, and doesn't punish a 2400 player for losing to a 500 player who is way above 500 in skill... the system treats it like he lost to a 2300 player, which is more fair to him.
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Posts: 117
Excaliburz 4 MVP.
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Posts: 37

70-100% - Bronze


100% even possible? LoL I saw a lot of golds when I started the league as bronze...

heehee Didn't see your other post :]
Edited by Auron on 8/6/2010 4:58 AM PDT
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Posts: 2,641
LEAGUES

League Overview

It is not currently known how leagues are divided, but it is certain that they each contain a certain percentile of players. I estimate that to be this:

Top 10% - Diamond
10-25% - Platinum
25-45% - Gold
45-70% - Silver
70-100% - Bronze


To me it would just be more logical to have:
20% - Diamond
20% - Platinum
20% - gold
20% - silver
20% - bronze


It's not 20/20/20/20/20 because each league becomes slightly more exclusive than the one below it. I originally made that post in April, but according to the most recent parses it seems to be closer to 5/15/22/22/33 (still subject to change as more and more people get promoted into Diamond) so it looks to be pretty close.

My guess for the pyramid-style distribution was based on the skill curve of the game. Starcraft is an extremely competitive game. The skill gap of the top 20% is much greater than the bottom 20%. In the bottom 20% you're probably making a lot of fundamental mistakes and there are tons of areas for improvement. The higher up the skill curve you get, the greater the skill disparity. If you take ICCup as an example, let's say the top 1% may be A, then the top 10% might be B, then the next 40% might be C level. The bottom 20% would all be D but the top 20% would cover a much much wider range of skill levels.


Interestingly, I saw a post in Beta that basically said that the distribution was more of a sloped bell curve, with most of the players in silver (which is now gold). This would be very much like the distribution you mention for ICCup. It's possible that there could be a lot more bronze level players at the start though.
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Posts: 2,641
Playing solo matches, I saw my opponent was "favored". In game I asked him if he saw the same thing. He said he saw, "even match". Any explanation? I know this went on in Beta too.


This is a great question and there's a reason I didn't cover this in my post. It's a bug that can't be confirmed. This is only conjecture, but I believe the game is erroneously comparing your displayed rating to your opponent's MMR. Let's use this scenario:

You have a rating of 1000 and an MMR of 1200.
Your opponent has a rating of 1200 and an MMR of 1300.

His MMR is higher than your rating, so he appears as Favored to you. Your MMR is equal to his rating, so you appear as Even to him.

Over time, your MMR and displayed rating will converge. Now, there's no way to 100% verify this because the MMR is hidden, but it would explain why players who typically have very few games played (that is, below 30 or so) constantly say that they are never favored. If your MMR starts at, say 1500 but your rating starts at 0, that is a lot of games that you have to play before you catch up to your MMR. Once that happens, you may start being paired against people who actually have lower MMRs than your displayed rating.

If true, this is a bug because it should be comparing your MMR to your opponents MMR, or your rating to your opponent's rating, and not cross-comparing different rating types.


That sounds like a really good explanation for what's happening. Of course, this doesn't necessarily mean that it's a bug. There is a very beneficial side-effect to this, which is that it helps to push your real rating closer to your MMR. Consider this.

You have a rating of 1000 and an MMR of 1200.
Your opponent has a rating of 1200 and an MMR of 1200.

If you win this matchup, you will get extra points because your opponent was favored. If you lose, you won't be penalized nearly as much. Therefore, if you win 50% of your games your actual rating will reach your MMR simply because all your opponents will show up as favored. At the same time, your opponent isn't unnecessarily penalized for losing against someone who has a lower rating because your MMR rating is equal to their rating.
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- StarCraft
Posts: 2,329
Playing solo matches, I saw my opponent was "favored". In game I asked him if he saw the same thing. He said he saw, "even match". Any explanation? I know this went on in Beta too.


This is a great question and there's a reason I didn't cover this in my post. It's a bug that can't be confirmed. This is only conjecture, but I believe the game is erroneously comparing your displayed rating to your opponent's MMR. Let's use this scenario:

You have a rating of 1000 and an MMR of 1200.
Your opponent has a rating of 1200 and an MMR of 1300.

His MMR is higher than your rating, so he appears as Favored to you. Your MMR is equal to his rating, so you appear as Even to him.

Over time, your MMR and displayed rating will converge. Now, there's no way to 100% verify this because the MMR is hidden, but it would explain why players who typically have very few games played (that is, below 30 or so) constantly say that they are never favored. If your MMR starts at, say 1500 but your rating starts at 0, that is a lot of games that you have to play before you catch up to your MMR. Once that happens, you may start being paired against people who actually have lower MMRs than your displayed rating.

If true, this is a bug because it should be comparing your MMR to your opponents MMR, or your rating to your opponent's rating, and not cross-comparing different rating types.


That sounds like a really good explanation for what's happening. Of course, this doesn't necessarily mean that it's a bug. There is a very beneficial side-effect to this, which is that it helps to push your real rating closer to your MMR. Consider this.

You have a rating of 1000 and an MMR of 1200.
Your opponent has a rating of 1200 and an MMR of 1200.

If you win this matchup, you will get extra points because your opponent was favored. If you lose, you won't be penalized nearly as much. Therefore, if you win 50% of your games your actual rating will reach your MMR simply because all your opponents will show up as favored. At the same time, your opponent isn't unnecessarily penalized for losing against someone who has a lower rating because your MMR rating is equal to their rating.


You know, that is a really good point, and really seems to show that it may not be a bug at all. Come to think of it, in WoW it did things the same way, comparing your team rating to your opponent's MMR for point calculation and allowing people to get their rating to converge with their MMR much faster. I'll have to think a bit more about this, but that explanation makes a lot of sense.
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Posts: 6
LEAGUES

It's not 20/20/20/20/20 because each league becomes slightly more exclusive than the one below it. I originally made that post in April, but according to the most recent parses it seems to be closer to 5/15/22/22/33 (still subject to change as more and more people get promoted into Diamond) so it looks to be pretty close.


Excalibur: Would you mind describing how you collected the data that gave you your distribution of 5/15/22/22/33?

It'd really be nice if blizzard explained how leagues are distributed. I don't mind the league/division setup, but at the same time I want to know if I'm in the Nth percentile of players.
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- StarCraft
Posts: 2,329
So the more I think about it, that has to be the case, however I made an error in the direction it goes. It has to be comparing your rating to your opponent's MMR. I had it backwards. That's the same way it worked in WoW and it's an established method.

So using the example from before:

You have a rating of 1000 and an MMR of 1200.
Your opponent has a rating of 1200 and an MMR of 1200.

The players first get matched up because of similar MMR. You see him as favored and he sees you as even. If you win, you get the points from a favored match while he loses the points from an even match.
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Posts: 6
So the more I think about it, that has to be the case, however I made an error in the direction it goes. It has to be comparing your rating to your opponent's MMR. I had it backwards. That's the same way it worked in WoW and it's an established method.

So using the example from before:

You have a rating of 1000 and an MMR of 1200.
Your opponent has a rating of 1200 and an MMR of 1200.

The players first get matched up because of similar MMR. You see him as favored and he sees you as even. If you win, you get the points from a favored match while he loses the points from an even match.


That seems reasonable. The favored message becomes an indication of how many points you'd gain given your current rating. I've heard of BOTH players seeing favored and this would explain that too.

For example, both players are at a 200 rating but have an MMR saying they should be 500. Whoever wins should gain a lot of points and whoever loses should only lose a little as the system is gearing to get their rating to move up to their MMR.
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- StarCraft
Posts: 2,329
LEAGUES

It's not 20/20/20/20/20 because each league becomes slightly more exclusive than the one below it. I originally made that post in April, but according to the most recent parses it seems to be closer to 5/15/22/22/33 (still subject to change as more and more people get promoted into Diamond) so it looks to be pretty close.


Excalibur: Would you mind describing how you collected the data that gave you your distribution of 5/15/22/22/33?

It'd really be nice if blizzard explained how leagues are distributed. I don't mind the league/division setup, but at the same time I want to know if I'm in the Nth percentile of players.


SC2ranks.com just put up an excellent stats page that seems to show that it isn't set percentiles at all as I first predicted: http://sc2ranks.com/stats (thanks Shadowed)

So as you see from that page, on our server, it's about 5/18/22/20/35. However (and this is when I realized I was wrong) in Korea, it's about 6/15/25/25/29. Quite a bit different.

Now I'm thinking that each league doesn't have predetermined percentiles but rather MMR breakpoints, sort of similar to how there are certain breakpoints in WoW despite it being a fluid system (weapons at 1800 and 2200, shoulders at 2000, etc). In all likelihood this is going to require more review and iteration, but we seem to be a bit closer to figuring it out.
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Posts: 6
LEAGUES

It's not 20/20/20/20/20 because each league becomes slightly more exclusive than the one below it. I originally made that post in April, but according to the most recent parses it seems to be closer to 5/15/22/22/33 (still subject to change as more and more people get promoted into Diamond) so it looks to be pretty close.


Excalibur: Would you mind describing how you collected the data that gave you your distribution of 5/15/22/22/33?

It'd really be nice if blizzard explained how leagues are distributed. I don't mind the league/division setup, but at the same time I want to know if I'm in the Nth percentile of players.


SC2ranks.com just put up an excellent stats page that seems to show that it isn't set percentiles at all as I first predicted: http://sc2ranks.com/stats (thanks Shadowed)

So as you see from that page, on our server, it's about 5/18/22/20/35. However (and this is when I realized I was wrong) in Korea, it's about 6/15/25/25/29. Quite a bit different.

Now I'm thinking that each league doesn't have predetermined percentiles but rather MMR breakpoints, sort of similar to how there are certain breakpoints in WoW despite it being a fluid system (weapons at 1800 and 2200, shoulders at 2000, etc). In all likelihood this is going to require more review and iteration, but we seem to be a bit closer to figuring it out.


Ah, thanks for the link. Yeah, it very well could be MMR. If so, I imagine they had a certain destribution in mind when they picked those MMR #s. I'd wager, for example, they're shooting for 5% of players being diamond.
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Posts: 4,467
From FAQ...
Q. What are divisions?

A. Leagues are divided up into divisions consisting of at most 100 teams (or individual players in the case of 1v1). Those 100 teams or players compete for the top slots in each division. In the future, there will be tournaments to determine the top players in each division and the winners will compete to determine the top players in each league. The system is divided up this way so players can track meaningful progress within their division while competing against others of similar skill.


I've only played a few games in my Bronze Division so far, but as of right now, it feels like no one stays in it for very long. The top 10 seems to change all the time. I assumed because they are being promoted out of it right? How can they organize Division tournements if people aren't their for very long anyways? Does it take longer to promote out of the higher leagues? Will they just not have Bronze level tournaments? It just feels more like a race out of my Division instead of a Race to #1.
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