The paitent looks at me from his bed.
"What is it doc?"
I take my glasses of and look slightly up.
"I've estimated your chances of getting into beta. Though you might want to know, they are not to good."
First wave was pro\press\F&F only, so discounting that:
Wave 2 was 8,000
Wave 3 was 12,000
Wave 4 was 7,000
Wave 5 was 12,000
Shows about how many have gone out.
Chances are pretty darn low right now. They prioritize people who have played once in the last 6 months, but its still possible for someone who has never played SC2 to get a key.
So using a graph to predict the amount of total players based of the mean of the 5 waves, then estimating the 10th wave, can give you a percent.
Considering the amount of SC2 players, estimated to be 3,444,429, and turning the estimated number of about 90 thousand beta players, we do in fact get a number less than 1 %. But not to mention the number of opt ins, but my head hurts to much to calculate that in, I should think that that number will decrease the percentage a bit though.
EDIT - you should also think about the current number of active players... OUCH MY HEAD!
So your odds, not so good. Because based off an even ten waves, which totals around 90k-120k, the percentage is still less than one.
~proud to be a wave 1 tester!
Ouch.... My head :C
So, at the estimates I made, which are very optimal, you still have like only a 1% chance......
I left some room in my calculations and numbers, to provide a more likely range.
Remember those numbers I made are logical estimates.