Zarko's 1st Tier Math Thread?

90 Tauren Druid
0
Lol, I say "we aren't likely to see 50% dodge" and you go all the way up to 60 :D

Or are you just plotting down things as you compute them so you don't forget?
I don't expect to see dodge up that high till maybe 3rd or 4th tier.
Reply Quote
90 Orc Warrior
10025

Lol, I say "we aren't likely to see 50% dodge" and you go all the way up to 60 :D

Or are you just plotting down things as you compute them so you don't forget?

I don't expect to see dodge up that high till maybe 3rd or 4th tier.


I was just putting it together so I could get an idea of how likely it was that we'd reach an inflection point in this expansion.

I'd have to say that I consider it really unlikely.
Reply Quote
90 Tauren Druid
0
The inflection point is based more on the size of the absorb.
For instance if the absorb > size of hit you'll reach it much faster.
Reply Quote
90 Orc Warrior
10025

The inflection point is based more on the size of the absorb.
For instance if the absorb > size of hit you'll reach it much faster.


Yes. The size of the absorb is really complicated, though. It's affected by your AP, your health, and your mastery totals.

You don't gain that much stamina from one tier to the next.

The thingy I did for a heroic geared paladin, he picks up around 750 stam (before buffs, spec, etc).

After buffs, that ends up as a gain of something like 13,498 health. Rounding up, maybe we end up with 1400 added AP from health.

You pick up an extra 750 or so agility from going up a tier, so let's include that as well to 1,500 AP.

You pick up another 750 mastery, so call it another 4 mastery points, so an additional 16%.


So that's three gain points of Savage Defense absorb amount. Given those figures, a bear's absorb amount goes up to 68.6% of available AP, and your AP is raised by another 2620 or so.

All told, your savage defense amount goes up to around 20,392. Assuming that's representative of a typical tier increase, it's around an 18% increase in SD amount per tier. You still have a really hard time finding bosses that hit lightly enough to make crit better than dodge.

I'm glad to hear this, because it's something that I was pretty sure was true, but was having a hard time figuring out how to prove it.
Reply Quote
90 Tauren Druid
0
The part that is going to get out of control is that mastery doesn't have any DR attached to it (or am i missing it somewhere?).

Which means that picking up mastery increases from tier to tier along with the AP gains add yet another sclaing factor. But I am also glad. I would feel really strange if I was reforging crit as a defensive stat
Reply Quote
85 Night Elf Druid
12205
The inflection point I'm more concerned about is Dodge vs Mastery and a more general debate of Stamina vs Other Stats. I'm taking longer than usual on my spreadsheet because I really want it to look nice along with having the ability to put in real gear items quickly (and updatable for later.)

Right now I have it set up where you can put in all your stats and the boss stats and see what your overall damage reduction (averaged of course due to Dodge and such) at varying Vengeance levels. Eventually, tomorrow hopefully, you'll just put in your gear list/gems/enchants and it'll tally that for you.

What's the rounding error on Reforging do? Up or down?
Reply Quote
85 Night Elf Druid
12205
Hookay I have a new math conundrum that involves those silly probabilities again...

I had created a table of values that in a nutshell showed how many more attacks per second you received with X amount of Haste and the fully talented Fury Swipes. The problem I just realized while working on some other things is that I assumed 100% chance to land an autoattack... which obviously does not happen, particularly when the set I'm looking at at the moment is rocking a massive 2.83% chance to Hit and 5.69 Expertise.

So, originally Anoth helped confirm that the average number of swings needed to proc a Fury Swipe at 15% chance was 1 + (1/.15) for Haste values equal to and below 66.666...%. For above that amount up to 150% Haste, the formula for average number of swings was 2 + (1/.15). But neither of these obviously account for Hit/Expertise at all, that THAT chance has to be added in somewhere in here as well.

So... probability and statistics peoples... help!
Reply Quote
85 Blood Elf Death Knight
5940
It doesn't change the underlying problem too much; you can conceptually just think of it as lowering the chance per swing from 15% to 15% * H, where H is your hit chance:

P = .15 * H - .15 * H * P
P * (1 + .15 * H) = .15 * H
P = .15 * H / (1 + .15 * H)

That's the probability of it happening on a given swing; if you want to look at it as the average number of swings between procs then it's just the reciprocal, which is:

(1 + .15*H)/(.15*H)
1 + 1/(.15 * H)
Reply Quote
85 Night Elf Druid
12205
Awesome, a quick and clean answer! I didn't think you could just tack on the (for example) 90% chance to actually land a hit to the 15% chance to proc, making it essentially a 13.5% chance to proc.

I know it won't change our S-values all that much but I gotta be precise where I can or am able, bothers me otherwise.

Oh and Reforging rounds down yes? As in if I take 40% (that's the number right?) of 86 Critical Strike Rating to convert to Mastery Rating, I'm going to gain 34 Mastery Rating, not 34.4 or 35 Mastery Rating. Right?
Reply Quote
86 Orc Death Knight
6390
Oh and Reforging rounds down yes? As in if I take 40% (that's the number right?) of 86 Critical Strike Rating to convert to Mastery Rating, I'm going to gain 34 Mastery Rating, not 34.4 or 35 Mastery Rating. Right?


Correct. Reforging truncates.

If you reforge 52 rating (52 * .4 = 20.8), you get -20 original, +20 new.


(You do not want to know how many tries this post took me. I've been awake too damn long.)
Edited by Vonak on 11/14/2010 9:51 PM PST
Reply Quote
90 Tauren Druid
0
Hey fasc. Don't forget glancing blows on white hits.
Reply Quote
85 Night Elf Druid
12205
Hey fasc. Don't forget glancing blows on white hits.


Would a glancing prevent a Fury Swipe? Yes it limits the upper end on Critical Strike for our white attacks but I highly doubt we'll hit over 70% as Tanks unless we start stacking heavy amounts of Agility, and even then I'm skeptical.
Reply Quote
90 Tauren Druid
0
Hmm I don't know.
Reply Quote
85 Night Elf Druid
12205
I'm going to assume for now that since we still actually smack the Boss, despite it being of lesser strength, it still constitutes a "hit" for the sake of the talent and it is still eligible for a Fury Swipe proc. Unless someone can find some other "chance on hit" type talent or item that is known to NOT proc off of Glancing Blows, that's the assumption I'll run with.
Reply Quote

Please report any Code of Conduct violations, including:

Threats of violence. We take these seriously and will alert the proper authorities.

Posts containing personal information about other players. This includes physical addresses, e-mail addresses, phone numbers, and inappropriate photos and/or videos.

Harassing or discriminatory language. This will not be tolerated.

Forums Code of Conduct

Report Post # written by

Reason
Explain (256 characters max)

Reported!

[Close]