Suggestion: "Daily Random Heroic"

90 Gnome Mage
13780
This is in fact two suggestions.

1. Rename the current daily heroic to 'Quickest', as after 3 months of statistics on said event shows with around 95% confidence that it is not random. If I can predict with that accuracy my next heroic (note - not my last ones), then it is screwy.
2. Because I understand why the daily heroics are not random (lowest common denominator anyone), can we have another option with a shared quest reward called 'Random' ... this may take longer to queue for - but it would allow a touch of variety.

Note (for history's sake) - 80 of my last 90 heroic dungeon offers have been UK/UP .. this includes the 2 or 3 attempts per day where I just leave the group (only when it is UK/UP).
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85 Blood Elf Paladin
5805
This is in fact two suggestions.

1. Rename the current daily heroic to 'Quickest', as after 3 months of statistics on said event shows with around 95% confidence that it is not random. If I can predict with that accuracy my next heroic (note - not my last ones), then it is screwy.
2. Because I understand why the daily heroics are not random (lowest common denominator anyone), can we have another option with a shared quest reward called 'Random' ... this may take longer to queue for - but it would allow a touch of variety.

Note (for history's sake) - 80 of my last 90 heroic dungeon offers have been UK/UP .. this includes the 2 or 3 attempts per day where I just leave the group (only when it is UK/UP).


Doubtful, but even if that were the case, random numbers are random and it could happen.
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100 Dwarf Warrior
16435
If i understand how it works, the reason you are getting more UK and UP are likely because while you are queuing for randoms, in your battlegroup a lot of people are queuing specifically for those ones.

If you want less UP, transfer to a battlegroup where everyone doesn't want a blue proto drake.
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90 Gnome Mage
13780
If i understand how it works, the reason you are getting more UK and UP are likely because while you are queuing for randoms, in your battlegroup a lot of people are queuing specifically for those ones..


Actually - I think it is because there are more people eligible for UK/UP who are doing heroics than say FoS or HoL.

If you want less UP, transfer to a battlegroup where everyone doesn't want a blue proto drake.


Of the choice of one battlegroup that is really open to me - I have already gone through them all :)
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90 Gnome Mage
13780

Doubtful, but even if that were the case, random numbers are random and it could happen.


There is very little likely hood that the sequence is random ... however as you say it is possible.

What effectively proves the point though - is predicting future outcomes. Once I can reliably predict the next value - it is not random.
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100 Night Elf Druid
16355

Doubtful, but even if that were the case, random numbers are random and it could happen.


There is very little likely hood that the sequence is random ... however as you say it is possible.

What effectively proves the point though - is predicting future outcomes. Once I can reliably predict the next value - it is not random.


When i do randoms they seem pretty random.
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85 Blood Elf Paladin
5805

Doubtful, but even if that were the case, random numbers are random and it could happen.


There is very little likely hood that the sequence is random ... however as you say it is possible.

What effectively proves the point though - is predicting future outcomes. Once I can reliably predict the next value - it is not random.


Random numbers are random. On this toon, UP/UK are some of my least run dungeons, while I've apparently done DTK about twice as much as those two combined. I looked at your stats and it is pretty crazy how many times you've gotten those two :P
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87 Orc Warrior
OP
6475
i got halls as stone as my random for a good 3-4 weeks random is random

i imagine with the number of level 80 toons this not happening to someone would be far less likely than it happening you just happen to be that guy
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90 Gnome Mage
13780
Well, since I posted - another 6/6 offers have been UP/UK.

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85 Goblin Death Knight
4825
Always been totally random for me. Have never gotten the same one two days in a row and most not even that same week. Might wanna check to make sure you don't have Keep and Pin checked off in your specific dungeon list as there was a bug a while back if you have them checked and que random, it still over rides random. Look at the bright side your getting more chances then most of us at Skadi's mount.
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90 Gnome Mage
13780
Look at the bright side your getting more chances then most of us at Skadi's mount.


Not at all, since a week ago ... I now drop group on UK/UP runs. I'm sick of them enough that if I don't get something else within two attempts, I just don't do the daily heroic that day.

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85 Blood Elf Paladin
5805
http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/2001-10-25/

Aptly describes your problem.
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100 Night Elf Druid
19215
I've completed Heroic AN and VH 38 times but I've only completed HoL 21 times, clearly this means the random dungeon system isn't so random!
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90 Gnome Mage
13780
I've completed Heroic AN and VH 38 times but I've only completed HoL 21 times, clearly this means the random dungeon system isn't so random!


How so ? What analysis have you done ? What confidence do you have in your analysis ?
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1 Gnome Rogue
0
I've completed Heroic AN and VH 38 times but I've only completed HoL 21 times, clearly this means the random dungeon system isn't so random!


How so ? What analysis have you done ? What confidence do you have in your analysis ?


his analysis is as mathematically valid as yours. i'm inclined to believe that was his point.
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100 Dwarf Warrior
16435
I've completed Heroic AN and VH 38 times but I've only completed HoL 21 times, clearly this means the random dungeon system isn't so random!


How so ? What analysis have you done ? What confidence do you have in your analysis ?


his analysis is as mathematically valid as yours. i'm inclined to believe that was his point.


Curse your sense making.
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85 Night Elf Rogue
7155
1. Rename the current daily heroic to 'Quickest', as after 3 months of statistics on said event shows with around 95% confidence that it is not random. If I can predict with that accuracy my next heroic (note - not my last ones), then it is screwy.


Well, a Blue has actually said that it isn't entirely random, but I think they like the name so they'll stick to it :P
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85 Night Elf Druid
6725
It's random based on what your gear level is. For example, some one all quest blues and whatnot is going to be limited to the Original WLK heroics. Whereas someone in full T8+ will have access to Halls of Reflection *shudder*. It's also probably set that you're more likely to enter something equivalent to your gear level. IE T10 is more likely to get the ICC heroics or the harder originals than someone who is barely geared for them. However, with the ability to queue for specifics some random people could be messing up your queue, which is really of no fault of the system, and it actually sounds more like your battlegroup is either just bad, or farming for mounts. Personally, I have several toons that are either in T9 or T10, occasionally I'll get the same instance several times in a row, or simply multiple times in the same day. But more often than not I only see most instances once per day. (the happy exceptions are the 5-boss instances...103jp yummy). But as far as UK is concerned, I understand you not wanting to do that one repeatedly, it's stupid long for only 3 bosses (71jp). But UP...I love when I get that place, not only do I have a chance for a mount, but its a VERY quick 86jp. I tank on two of my 80's and I almost always move through UP faster than every other instance, aside from Forge of Souls. Random is random...sometimes. You can't control what other people click and when your number comes up well, you get stuck with what they wanted.
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