I have a problem with the ignorance to total time-investment that shines through the drop rate of
Recipe: Vial of the Sands from Canopic Jar.
* 3 min per flight to next site (Kalimdor).
* 5 minutes for the whole process.
* ~13.5 fragments per site.
* 2.7 or ~3 fragments per minute.
* 8/56 dig sites are Tol'Vir.
* 1/7 commons are Canopic Jars.
* 3.67 fragments toward a Canopic Jar every hour. Round that up to 5 with hieroglyphics.
At this rate I get ONE Canopic Jar every 9 hours. This is a reasonable estimate considering I have obtained 13 Canopic Jars since I first had the required skill level to dig at Tol'Vir sites on 12/13/10, and that I have not spent all my waking hours nor hours in game grinding archaeology.
But now let's apply some simple maths...
Assuming a 5% drop rate of the recipe:
1 - (0.95 ^ 14) = 51.23% chance of encountering the recipe takes: 14 Jars.
Assuming a 10% drop rate of the recipe:
1 - (0.90 ^ 7) = 52.17% chance of encountering the recipe takes: 7 Jars.
So if we are neither lucky nor unlucky and encounter the recipe when we have about a 50% chance then we are investing a 63 hours with a 10% drop rate and 126 hours with a 5% drop rate.
So working full time on Archaeology it would take a minimum of 7.875 or about 8 full (8hr) days of work to have the odds on your side. In this same time at even a meager hourly rate, you'd be squandering away around 630 US dollars. But that's not really an argument - so let's make one.
Let's say you play this game casually and can't invest 8 hours a day towards gathering fragments - that is you aren't sacrificing your day job to get this recipe. Let's say that you do 8 hours of archaeology per week. With a 10% drop rate that 7.875 days becomes 7.875 weeks or about 55 days before you can call yourself unlucky. And with a 5% drop rate, you are faced with 110 and a quarter days before you can start calling yourself "unlucky".
Note: I'm using 5% and 10% as probable drop rates due to Wowhead data and my own experience of having looted 13 Canopic Jars without recipes, which reinforces the statistics that wowhead has collected.
Seeing as Archaeology is a secondary profession, an 8 hour per week investment seems rather reasonable. What seems unreasonable is the 55-110 day time investment it would take to gain favorable odds to loot the recipe from one of these Canopic Jars at a casual rate.
But let's move on and examine what the Recipe actually calls for, perhaps it's easily crafted...
Vendor materials cost an unprecedented 29,000g not including...
12 Truegold (14256g @wowhead)
16 flasks which amount to:
Total for flasks: 5544g @wowhead.
Grand Total: 48,800g*
*Subtract 5800g if you can buy the vendor mats with a goblin, making it 43k.
43-48k might not be much to certain people, but to most players it is more than a substantial amount to save. Oh - that won't include the price charged for crafting this item. Expect several thousand for that.
Now it's not the price that breaks the camel's back - it only serves as proof that this mount is already hard enough to craft, and hence the 110 day grind @ 8 hours per week to simply get respectable odds to loot the recipe is absolute, maniacal overkill.
If the mats were easier to obtain, and did not encroach upon 50,000g gold it might be acceptable to keep the recipe this rare. However the materials needed to produce this mount mean only select players will even see the gold or materials necessary to craft it. As such, the low drop rate only serves to castrate the will of any players still seeking the Recipe when someone else on their server has found it. Only the stubborn mules like myself continue on, completing 10+ jars despite the availability of the mount. Hence...
The drop rate on Recipe: Vial of the Sands fromCanopic Jar should be increased.
Thank you for your time and attention.