75g Inferno Rubies

90 Orc Hunter
4145
I remember at the beginning of the patch how so many people where crying about 400g Inferno Rubies and how delighted I was to sell them at that price.

This was a time when bots had been apparently eliminated from my server.

I don't really have a point here, the market is what the market is and gold makers adapt. Just that there's some irony. I wonder if the people who think its great rubies are selling for 75 gold also think its great that actual miners have to compete with people posting hundreds of stacks of elementium at 37 gold a stack. I wonder whether those people mind that bots are most likely the cause of their cheap gems.

Incidently, I am sitting on my rubies - still turning a profit on the rest of the gems and shuffling for now. Eventually the bots will be wiped. Eventually it will be a new expac. The rubies don't take up that much room.
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85 Goblin Death Knight
9485
Supply and demand. Rubies were selling for 400g because everyone needed them for all the new gear they were getting in the new heroics, LFR, and DS. As more and more people get geared, the demand for the rubies decreases, hence the 75g price tag.
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90 Blood Elf Paladin
10745
05/01/2012 01:24 PMPosted by Jozie
Supply and demand. Rubies were selling for 400g because everyone needed them for all the new gear they were getting in the new heroics, LFR, and DS. As more and more people get geared, the demand for the rubies decreases, hence the 75g price tag.


Yes, but that's just the demand side. You left out the supply part. The rampant mining bots, which each supply hundreds of stacks of ore each day, are the biggest factor in the low prices.

The rampant duping of Queen's Garnets also messes up prices.
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90 Orc Hunter
4145
05/01/2012 01:24 PMPosted by Jozie
Supply and demand. Rubies were selling for 400g because everyone needed them for all the new gear they were getting in the new heroics, LFR, and DS. As more and more people get geared, the demand for the rubies decreases, hence the 75g price tag.


That's all kind of obvious and mostly true. It also kind of missed the point (or lack thereof) of my post.

You fall a little short on your explanation of the demand part too - or you oversimplify it anyway. Less people gearing up has an effect on velocity gems and other enhancements will sell at (number of sales per day) but it has little effect on what someone is willing to pay.

Basically, if gems on my server were 200g today I wouldn't sell any fewer.

In any case, if you reread my original post you'll see I'm in no way confused about why prices are what they are, my observations were more about people's motivations and such.
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85 Blood Elf Warlock
6230
I bought up several hundred of them a few weeks ago at 70g each. When prices fall I just sit on them for a few days until it bounces back up. Even if the market tanked completely, I can sell them in MoP for 100- 200g each when the market ignores them.
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05/01/2012 01:17 PMPosted by Glenlivet
I don't really have a point here, the market is what the market is and gold makers adapt. Just that there's some irony. I wonder if the people who think its great rubies are selling for 75 gold also think its great that actual miners have to compete with people posting hundreds of stacks of elementium at 37 gold a stack. I wonder whether those people mind that bots are most likely the cause of their cheap gems.


Do you care how many Chinese workers literally kill themselves working for Foxconn to supply Apple with cheap components so Americans can enjoy cheap or interesting new technological toys?
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90 Orc Hunter
4145
05/01/2012 07:21 PMPosted by Trixxis
I don't really have a point here, the market is what the market is and gold makers adapt. Just that there's some irony. I wonder if the people who think its great rubies are selling for 75 gold also think its great that actual miners have to compete with people posting hundreds of stacks of elementium at 37 gold a stack. I wonder whether those people mind that bots are most likely the cause of their cheap gems.


Do you care how many Chinese workers literally kill themselves working for Foxconn to supply Apple with cheap components so Americans can enjoy cheap or interesting new technological toys?


Does that have anything to do with the price of tea in China? Is that where the expression came from?

And I didn't consider my iMac cheap.
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85 Goblin Death Knight
9485
All valid responses to my very simple excuse of supply and demand. From my personal experience however, enough people sit on their supply during bot flooding and will leave the market once ore prices get jacked up after a massive ban.

So from my perspective, the supply fluctuates very little, and bots primarily affect the profitability of the jewelcrafters cutting the gems.
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Very true. There were probably just as many bots at the start of Cataclysm, it was just harder to tell via economics because everyone was buying everything.

Now that numbers in the game have dwindled and it becomes harder to make a living, so to speak, the effect of bots on markets becomes pretty clear.

Personally, I don't mind the ones that gather loads of mats and flood the market all at once. I can just buy all their stock and put it to use. The bots that really bug me are the ones that camp the auction house 24 hours a day making it impossible to have your auctions sell for longer than about a 4 minute window.
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85 Goblin Death Knight
9485
05/02/2012 09:20 AMPosted by Trixxis
Personally, I don't mind the ones that gather loads of mats and flood the market all at once. I can just buy all their stock and put it to use. The bots that really bug me are the ones that camp the auction house 24 hours a day making it impossible to have your auctions sell for longer than about a 4 minute window.


Agree.
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85 Human Warrior
8610
I doubt the number of bots in the economy has changed. Why? I have a miner. I see bots every day in Uldum. I report them every time I see them. Months and months of doing this (heck, the entire expansion), and some of the same names are still showing up in Uldum.

I'm not talking about legit players.

I'm talking about the player you follow, attack just as he's trying to mine, watch him stand there jumping, trying to mount and fly off, then once dead, takes rez sickness, goes right back to the same route, and next time you find him, attack again. He just stands there jumping, attempting to mount and fly away.

No, Blizzard hasn't really done a whole lot about the botting problem. This does not mean that the supply has remained perfectly constant.

No, supply does fluctuate, but not because of bots waxing and waning. Supply fluctuates because non-bot players are not always consistent about when they go out to mine. Maybe, on my miner, I feel like doing a bunch of dungeons one day, and I spend my time in queue mining in Uldum, and then offload it all on the AH. Or maybe I don't, etc.

But there's not really a pattern to this non-consistent supply. And it doesn't really go far to explain the price curve.

05/01/2012 01:55 PMPosted by Glenlivet
Less people gearing up has an effect on velocity gems and other enhancements will sell at (number of sales per day) but it has little effect on what someone is willing to pay.


While it is true that fewer people gearing up has little effect on what someone is willing to pay for gear enhancements (gems, enchants, etc), the statement is a bit misleading.

I am a raider. Part of raiding means that my gear will be properly gemmed, enchanted, and reforged. This means that what I am willing to pay for my gems is essentially whatever the market price for the gems are at the time I need the gems. If I need to fill a socket with a red gem, I'm going to buy that inferno ruby, whether it's 70g or whether it's 200g or whether it's 400g. Now, at a certain point, I might compare the price of Queen's Garnet to Inferno Ruby and decide to jump up to the Queen's Garnet, but there's no price you can set red gems at that will completely prevent me from purchasing a red gem when I need a red gem.

And I'm not alone.

This is not to say that increasing price has no effect on the velocity of sales. That'd also be incorrect. The market is not composed 100% of raiders. And even among the raiders, not 100% subscribe to my idea that "These sockets must be gemmed!" But enough do.

The point I've made here is that, no matter the price, there will ALWAYS be a demand for red gems. (I mean, I suppose at a certain point, if purple and yellow gem prices remained constant, people may just opt for these rather than pay 5,000 times more for the red gem.)

So far, I think I've pretty well established that SUPPLY has NOT changed, and while PRICE may take us to a different part on the demand curve, we're still on the demand curve, no matter what we set the price at. There will always be a demand.

So now we must look at DEMAND. This is the only part of the equation that can explain a price leap up to 400g at the beginning of the expansion and a drop to 70g now (on my realm, it's still 90-120g, but still a significant drop).

Okay, so we've got a few different level of players.

We've got heroic raiders who were 7/7H in Firelands for a long time, all 391 gear. They full cleared normal DS in the first week and have been 8/8H in DS for a long time now. In the 5 months since DS released, they've gathered pretty much all the loot there is for them to gather.

We've got the Normal Raiders (like me). When 4.3 dropped, they perhaps had some upgrades in the HoT dungeons, but primarily, their upgrades are coming from valor, LFR, and normal raids. By this point, if their raid progression has slowed down, they've probably got just about all the gear they're going to get. And even if they do get more, it'll certainly come more slowly now.

We've got non-raiding PVEers. Before 4.3, these people just ran dungeons. So with 4.3, these people have a new set of upgraded gear between HoT dungeons, valor, and LFR.

We also have PVPers. No matter what level of PVPing you do, there was a new set of honor and conquest gear with 4.3.

And let's also not forget, we've been getting a massive number of Scroll of Resurrection players. These players can fit into any of the categories, plus they're quickly adding a character via a free level 80.

(continued)
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85 Human Warrior
8610
And let's keep a couple things in mind when we talk about the price boon of rubies and this demand curve.

1) For the first time this expansion, there were two valor BoEs. Before 4.3, each valor tier only had one BoE.

2) Three dungeons, which provided Firelands-level gear (good enough to get into DS normal) and are extraordinarily easy to run.

3) LFR, providing a level of gear easier to obtain than normal raids, but also better than the gear from HoT dungeons.

4) Normal mode DS being easier content, for one reason or another, than any other raid tier this expansion.

In short, there were simply a LOT more NEW pieces of gear that were very easily obtained at the beginning of patch 4.3 than we've seen since the release of Cataclysm. DEMAND MASSIVELY spiked at the beginning of the patch. That single-handedly explains the price spike.
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90 Orc Hunter
4145
Pogo I don't understand how you can disagree with me then type three pages of text that supports my argument.

All I'm saying, in response to the people parroting the "supply and demand" oversimplification, is that there is more to it than that.

People who run bots will essentially sell their ore at any price, high, low, whatever. That is not usually true for players. I simply would not go mining for ore because its not worth my time gold-per-hour. Of course the people who run bots are also capable of reading the market and watching TuJ.

I do believe the number of bots has ebbed and flowed. And I know that on my server there were few if any early in 4.3. I believe I can tell when its a bot posting just from the way they post (not the gold amount they post for) by the number of stacks, frequency, etc.

In any case, my whole point in this thread was more just an observation about the psychology of people. I tend to think that the same people angry about bots are often the same people angry about 400 gold inferno rubies.
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85 Goblin Death Knight
9485
In any case, my whole point in this thread was more just an observation about the psychology of people. I tend to think that the same people angry about bots are often the same people angry about 400 gold inferno rubies.


Also agree.

The same thing can be expanded to real life. People whine about paying taxes, but then expect the roads to be perfectly smooth and for the goverment to provide them with healthcare.
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05/02/2012 10:05 AMPosted by Pogo
No, Blizzard hasn't really done a whole lot about the botting problem.


My favorite response from reporting a bot happened recently, where they informed me of the penalty volcano, and essentially said they wouldn't really do anything to punish the people in question unless they are caught in the act, multiple times, over a long period of time.

I will say that some of the bots I've reported have at least toned it down a bit. Only seeing a few unrelenting, 20+ hour a day auction house bots any more. The rest just do 8-12 hour chunks now. This means there's only a one hour window per week where I can have all the demand I want, but I sure do capitalize on it!
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85 Human Warrior
8610
I am angry about bots. I am not, nor was I ever, angry about 400g inferno rubies.

Unless I misread, you were suggesting in your original post:

Inferno rubies were 400g in December because there were fewer bots. There are more bots now, therefore inferno rubies are 70g. And sometime in the future (and before MoP, I must assume), the price of inferno rubies will go back up because the bots will leave.

I flat reject this on a number of reasons. But the bulk of my 2-post post was rejecting it by explaining that the price rose as much as it did based solely on a constant supply and a spike in demand, and has since dropped because the supply is still constant and demand is vastly tapering off.

While bots do have an effect on the market, it's more of a big-picture long-term effect. Not something that causes a an 80% drop in price of one item over the course of 5 months...
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