LFR loot - 0-45..this can't be right

90 Undead Warrior
12895
How can I be 0-45 , includes 7 bonus loot rolls, and not get any loot. I have to be flagged or bugged. I run with gulides and this week alone several of them recieved 3-4 pieces from a 6 boss clear.

I'm not a fan of the new loot system at all to start with but 0-45 is an unacceptable drop rate. The real purpose of LFR is to gear up so the average weekend warrior can actully down content in the normal raids. Kinda hard to do when you go 0-45.

I was a tank for 20 of those runs. In the DS loot system, as a plate tank, I always got at least one piece per run, if not more depending on if the other tank was a plate wearer. This new loot system has zero excitement when looting, its like going to a blackjack table and they tell you " we arnt going to show the cards, we will just tell you if you won"

LFR isn't that fun to begin with with all the trolls that you group with and people alwasy yelling profanitys at some one else. So for two weeks now , I have spent a good chunk of time in LFR for zero reason. ( I don't care about seeing content within a week of it being released, I will see it eventaully anyway)

If no one got loot LFR would be dead, no one would run it. and 0-45 is way outside of the 15% drop rate it is supposed to be.

So I really hope it's just a bug on my account or something. Please don't tell me its a numbers thing. I guarentee you can't /roll 45 times and not get a 1-15. Try it and you'll see.

Any blues got any advice?

Thanks,

Konviction
Reply Quote
. I guarentee you can't /roll 45 times and not get a 1-15. Try it and you'll see.


You can't guarantee that. It's very possible. It's not probable, but it's not beyond the realm of reason.

There are millions of people playing, there is always going to be people with terrible RNG luck. You're just really unlucky. Sorry to say
Reply Quote
90 Blood Elf Mage
7825
11/16/2012 04:23 PMPosted by Konviction
Please don't tell me its a numbers thing


But it is.

Each time you do a run, the odds of getting loot don't change.

If you flip a coin 100 times and record the results, you might be surprised by the number of heads in a row, or tails in a row, you get.

But with each flip of the coin, the odds remain the same. They don't stack.

Random is random, and can be a very cruel mistress.
Reply Quote
55 Pandaren Monk
8410
I guarentee you can't /roll 45 times and not get a 1-15. Try it and you'll see.


Actually, you can't guarantee that. Statistically, it is quite possible that it will happen to someone. Sometimes, that someone just happens to be you.

While frustrating, sometime the RNG mistress can be quite cruel.
Reply Quote
90 Blood Elf Paladin
0
11/16/2012 04:23 PMPosted by Konviction
I'm not a fan of the new loot system at all to start with but 0-45 is an unacceptable drop rate. The real purpose of LFR is to gear up so the average weekend warrior can actully down content in the normal raids. Kinda hard to do when you go 0-45.


That's not the real point of LFR -- it's for people to experience content, not to gear up for normal raids.
Reply Quote
90 Undead Warrior
12895
The point of LFR is loot, otherwise it would be run one time and that would be it...99.9% of people running it week after week is for the loot..not the experiance, not the valor, not the comeraderie . Its for the loot. Period.

I'm so glad people are great mathmaticians here. Please someone tell me the odds that I can go 0-45 with a 15% chance. I'll bet it's in the 100 million range. Is that the odds for loot blizard wants its player base to have in LFR?

I still guarantee that no one can roll 45 times and not roll a number from 1-15. i'll bet 50k gold to your 1k all day long.

The point is I have a bug to go 0-45. And I'm asking Blizz to look into it is all.

One other major complaint is that Blizz has always said since vanilla that they never want loot to go to waste. Thats how they defend their silly 5 man loot rules. IE healer can roll on tank gear and vice versa if the appropriate class...blah blah blah. I have been told this at least a dozen times over the years. Nad now what does blizz do? They put in a LFR loot system that waste a ton of loot. Sure some duplicate loot is used for OS or a second reforge set. Some is DE's if your an emchanter but by enlarge dupe loot is just sold. 180 from what they have always preached.

Thanks for listening.

Konviction
Edited by Konviction on 11/16/2012 9:35 PM PST
Reply Quote
Please someone tell me the odds that I can go 0-45 with a 15% chance. I'll bet it's in the 100 million range. Is that the odds for loot blizard wnats its player base to have in LFR?


You're trying to put cumulative odds into this. You're falling into the gambler's fallacy. You have a 85% each time of not winning loot. That's it. It's not cumulative. Is it bad luck ? Sure.. but each roll has nothing to do with the rolls before.

The Gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy (because its most famous example happened in a Monte Carlo Casino in 1913),[1][2] and also referred to as the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that if deviations from expected behaviour are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process, future deviations in the opposite direction are then more likely.


11/16/2012 09:20 PMPosted by Konviction
I still guarantee that no one can roll 45 times and not roll a number from 1-15. i'll bet 50k gold to your 1k all day long.


That's a weird bet to make considering your'e a person who just apparently lost 45 times in a row.

11/16/2012 09:20 PMPosted by Konviction
The point is I have a bug to go 0-45. And i'm asking Blizz to look into it is all.


I'm telling you it's not a bug. If it was a bug, 10000 people would be in here complaining. It's just you're having a bad luck string. We all go through it.
Reply Quote
55 Pandaren Monk
8410
11/16/2012 09:20 PMPosted by Konviction
Please someone tell me the odds that I can go 0-45 with a 15% chance.


If you were the only player in WoW, the odds are very small. However, add in the fact that there millions of other players, and that at any given moment, the servers are making a large number of random calculations, it becomes something in the realm of possibility.

11/16/2012 09:20 PMPosted by Konviction
180 from what they have always preached.


You may want to read this - http://us.battle.net/wow/en/blog/4736886/

The problem arose is that with 25 random strangers, loot drama made players mad at each other. The change was made so that you are now just mad at Blizzard, which in general, was a good change for the health of PUG raids. Master Looter pug drama used to be posted quite often in this forum, now you really do not see it. That is the effect Blizzard was aiming for with LFR loot.

11/16/2012 09:20 PMPosted by Konviction
And I'm asking Blizz to look into it is all.


Then you need to make a bug report. Game Masters do not program the game and cannot investigate the underlying mechanics of random calculations. However, random calculations like this are not done via the character code. Your character merely makes a request for a random result -

Character needs random roll ----> makes request of server ----> server returns random result, independent of the character data

If there was indeed a problem, it would not be just you.
Edited by Musashi on 11/16/2012 9:45 PM PST
Reply Quote
85 Goblin Mage
7130
11/16/2012 04:23 PMPosted by Konviction
Please don't tell me its a numbers thing.


Uh. Ok... Lemme review what you said...

11/16/2012 04:23 PMPosted by Konviction
How can I be 0-45 , includes 7 bonus loot rolls


11/16/2012 04:23 PMPosted by Konviction
several of them recieved 3-4 pieces from a 6 boss clear


11/16/2012 04:23 PMPosted by Konviction
0-45 is an unacceptable drop rate


11/16/2012 04:23 PMPosted by Konviction
Kinda hard to do when you go 0-45.


11/16/2012 04:23 PMPosted by Konviction
I was a tank for 20 of those runs.


11/16/2012 04:23 PMPosted by Konviction
zero excitement when looting


11/16/2012 04:23 PMPosted by Konviction
two weeks now


11/16/2012 04:23 PMPosted by Konviction
zero reason


11/16/2012 04:23 PMPosted by Konviction
0-45 is way outside of the 15% drop rate


11/16/2012 04:23 PMPosted by Konviction
you can't /roll 45 times and not get a 1-15


Its not a numbers thing? So, if we're removing numbers from the equation then, there doesn't seem to be any issue at all....

You ran a LFR and didn't get loot. Not everyone gets loot all the time. Since we're removing numbers from the equation than that's all there is.

Now, if we're gonna discuss numbers... then yeah, its really unlikely to roll 45 times and still get under 15%, but it is totally and completely POSSIBLE. Its called the law of independent trials.
Reply Quote
85 Goblin Mage
7130
On average you should have won 6.75 pieces of loot. Now... the problem with AVERAGES is that there is as many people above that curve as below that curve. You are on the low side of the bell curve no doubt, but you're still on the curve... AND there is someone out there who's won 13.5 pieces of loot in their 45 runs too.

Its no fun, and it stinks, but being unlucky =/= bug
Reply Quote
90 Night Elf Hunter
11615
I'm so glad people are great mathmaticians here. Please someone tell me the odds that I can go 0-45 with a 15% chance. I'll bet it's in the 100 million range. Is that the odds for loot blizard wants its player base to have in LFR?


It took my warlock 38 kills to get his Deathmist robes off the final boss in UBRS for the old dungeon set 1 quest chain. Thirty-eight kills. That dungeon was not a trivial thing to run back then.

What are the odds? Pretty darn awful, but it happens.

(I nearly cried with relief when those robes finally showed up in the loot window, btw.)
Edited by Tindomerel on 11/16/2012 10:28 PM PST
Reply Quote
90 Worgen Druid
13230
11/16/2012 09:20 PMPosted by Konviction
The point is I have a bug to go 0-45. And I'm asking Blizz to look into it is all.


I'm confused. You want Blizz...to look at a bug that isn't there?

Unless I'm missing something here...which is possible due to how late it is, you have a total of 42 kills in LFR.

On top of that you have the LFR version of Elegon's axe.
Edited by Velum on 11/16/2012 10:32 PM PST
Reply Quote
90 Undead Warrior
12895
The 0-45 streak comes from 3 different toons.

The odds of me getting nothing get higher and higher eveytime I kill a boss and don't win. I understand that the odds of wining a piece of loot is 15% eveytime. that doesn't change. But the odds of going 0-5 vs 0-45 is way way different.

I don't know how to figure the odds, I found one wow site which put me at a 99.92224% chance to recieve loot. So according to that its a .06 chance. Not sure if that means basically 1 out of 200 people will have this result. That still doesnt seem right to me tho.

I'm not alone in long bad streaks acording to the forums.

If it's not a bug then blizz needs to add something in that raises your chances so that you don't have people going 0-45.

I didn't just run LFR and not get loot then come to the forums to ask for the devs to look at this. The customer service reps can pass this on if they felt they needed too. This is the customer service forum after all. I didn't post this in general discussion.

I'm 99.93334 % sure No one postng has gone 0-45 becasue if it was you, you wouldn't be on here all happy go lucky about how it's bad luck. You'd be saying 0-45 is not acceptable.

I understand people can come on here and say I went so and so on such and such. I want to hear from someone that goes 0-40 or more in LFR and then i'll "be more acceptable" of my results.

I'm not after one piece of specific loot, I'm after about 1 of 30 plus items my toons could use, big difference.

Thanks again

Konviction
Reply Quote
55 Pandaren Monk
8410
11/17/2012 06:04 AMPosted by Konviction
The customer service reps can pass this on if they felt they needed too. This is the customer service forum after all.


That is not the way it works. And as you can see, your thread was moved to the Dungeons, Raids and Scenarios forum.

If you feel there is an underlying issue, you will need post your details on the bug report forum.
Reply Quote
90 Pandaren Monk
6570
If you're going to complain about not getting loot, do so on a character that isn't packing LFR Elgion and hasn't won LFR Starshatter.

You've been unlucky, but 0/45 isn't really accurate.

Nor, in fact, should you discount winning those Leggings off of Sha of Fear, for that uses the exact same system.

Now granted, 3/43 isn't exactly stellar luck--but that's hardly zero.
Reply Quote
90 Undead Death Knight
9115
you realize people can look at your achievements right?

Obtained Starshatter. 10/30/2012

and you're also using a LFR 1hander on your armory.

so that's not 0.
Reply Quote
90 Pandaren Monk
11480
Another person who doesn't know what random is.

Take a statistics class.
Reply Quote
23 Worgen Rogue
70
I'm so glad people are great mathmaticians here. Please someone tell me the odds that I can go 0-45 with a 15% chance. I'll bet it's in the 100 million range. Is that the odds for loot blizard wants its player base to have in LFR?

You have an 85% chance to not get loot in a given roll. So, the odds of not getting loot over the course of 45 rolls is 0.85 ^ 45, which is approximately 0.0007, or 7 out of ten thousand.
Reply Quote
90 Blood Elf Death Knight
10330
So you're claiming to have never got loot from LFR, but you're wearing loot from LFR.

0: You keep using that number. I do not think it means what you think it means.
Reply Quote

Please report any Code of Conduct violations, including:

Threats of violence. We take these seriously and will alert the proper authorities.

Posts containing personal information about other players. This includes physical addresses, e-mail addresses, phone numbers, and inappropriate photos and/or videos.

Harassing or discriminatory language. This will not be tolerated.

Forums Code of Conduct

Report Post # written by

Reason
Explain (256 characters max)
Submit Cancel

Reported!

[Close]