LFR loot - 0-45..this can't be right

100 Dwarf Death Knight
18230
what the hell do they teach in 5th grade math these days that so many people don't understand the term random or chance.
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1 Draenei Paladin
0
11/17/2012 02:24 PMPosted by Postonforums
what the hell do they teach in 5th grade math these days that so many people don't understand the term random or chance.


It doesn't matter what they're taught or how much they absorb; they'll get passed anyway.

#america
Edited by Mnemonic on 11/17/2012 2:34 PM PST
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90 Pandaren Monk
6570
11/17/2012 02:24 PMPosted by Postonforums
what the hell do they teach in 5th grade math these days that so many people don't understand the term random or chance.


Or 'tell the truth'
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90 Human Paladin
10235
It doesn't matter what they're taught or how much they absorb; they'll get passed anyway.

#america


Keep voting 'dem Progressives like Bush and Obama in. They will fix it.
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100 Troll Druid
23455
You people do realize the more times you roll for loot, the more likely you are to get loot.

Rolling once is 15%, twice is 27.75%, three is 38.59%, four is 47.8%, and forty-five is 99.93%

Obviously it is 15% each individual time, but he is not complaining about not getting loot one time, he is complaining about not getting loot 45 times in a row.

(btw OP, it is a 1 in 1500 chance to go 0-45, which isn't that absurd)

(EDIT: Interestingly, it is a 1 in 11.4 mil chance of going 0-100)
Edited by Aurune on 11/17/2012 4:19 PM PST
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90 Troll Shaman
12580
11/17/2012 04:00 PMPosted by Aurune
Obviously it is 15% each individual time, but he is not complaining about not getting loot one time, he is complaining about not getting loot 45 times in a row.


Except what he's saying is a lie. RNG can be !@#$ty. I used like 4 tokens recently and got nothing. Although on Tuesday I killed sha, used a token and now I have my two piece. I've gone 4/6 sigils in one week from vaults. I've gone 0/6 for actual loot as well. Most of the time it seems I get at least one piece of loot every time I run one of the full raids, and if I'm lucky I get more, or unlucky I get none.

That being said, the OP is blatantly lying. Either he didn't know how armory worked, or he's trolling because he's gone silent.
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100 Troll Druid
23455
Except what he's saying is a lie. RNG can be !@#$ty. I used like 4 tokens recently and got nothing. Although on Tuesday I killed sha, used a token and now I have my two piece. I've gone 4/6 sigils in one week from vaults. I've gone 0/6 for actual loot as well. Most of the time it seems I get at least one piece of loot every time I run one of the full raids, and if I'm lucky I get more, or unlucky I get none.

That being said, the OP is blatantly lying. Either he didn't know how armory worked, or he's trolling because he's gone silent.


My post wasn't directed towards the OP (only my parenthetical note at the bottom was). Rather, my post was directed toward all the uneducated people who thought this was a case of gambler's fallacy.
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100 Undead Warrior
14300
For the record...

If people would read all my post they would see I said 0-45 was between 3 diff toons in LFR and it was a 2 week streak. I NEVER said I haven't recieved any loot. Just goes to show how smart the forum trolls are.

Thanks AURUNE for actully reading and understanding what my post is saying.

The Gamblers fallacy does not apply to this situation so please stop trying to sound smart and saying it does. If it has to be explain why it doesn't then you really don't understand what it means to begin with.

The poster that rolled 45 times and only got 1 number from 1-15 - The point is you still got one number not zero times. Altho I'm somewhat surprised it was only one time. I'd still take any bets 50k - 1k that they will roll a 1-15 in 45 rolls anyday of the week.

I orginally posted this in customer service. Someone moved my post here instead of explaining 0-45. My whole point in posting this was and is to ask Blizz if 0-45 is how they designed LFR. Blizz has said they designed LFR loot to be a 15% drop rate. Clearly it isn't a 15% drop rate. If they didn't want people to get loot 15% of the time, they would have designed it to only assign loot to X number of people who roll the highest. But thats not what they did. Is it?

1 in 1500 chance for loot should still not be possible when there are upwards of 30 pieces of loot I could use. I'm not going for 1 item that has a 1% drop rate so those comparisions don't apply.

The valor points being an alturnative to loot up is an option but only if I want to grind rep with the same factions over and over. And by the time you get enuff valor to gear up we will be on 5.3 or so. The point being its not a viable way to gear up for current content for more than 1 or maybe 2 toons if you play wow 40 hours a week.

I enjoyed the DS loot version with MS getting priority. I geared up 6 different toons with (10 diff specs) with DS LFR and loved the excitment of actully seeing what loot dropped. This robitic approch to loot is not very creative and dull but thats not what this topic is about.

Thanks again for those of you that actully provided helpful information.
Edited by Konviction on 11/17/2012 6:34 PM PST
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90 Undead Monk
14490
I geared up 6 different toons with (10 diff specs).


Let me guess you were one of those people who !@#$%ed every time they lost gear their main to someone's offspec/alt. Yet you did the same on your 5 other toons (you even admit you won loot for 9 additional specs)

Sorry bud, you're going to have to do better than ^-*!@ on the forums about a problem you don't understand at all before having any chance at blizzard changing lfr loot rules.
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100 Undead Warrior
14300
DS LFR gave a bonus roll to MS, so no I never cryed about losing rolls.

DS LFR wasnt perfect. But it wasnt that bad. it had many advantages over the current system IMO.

So not sure what it is you think i don't understand?

I am not"crying" I am simply asking Blizz is 0-45 acceptable. So far they haven't given me an answer "shrug"
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100 Worgen Druid
14510
11/17/2012 07:02 PMPosted by Konviction
So not sure what it is you think i don't understand?


I think you understand that you want something and you want it now!

11/17/2012 07:02 PMPosted by Konviction
I am not"crying" I am simply asking Blizz is 0-45 acceptable. So far they haven't given me an answer "shrug"


No, you're right. You're not crying. You're still complaining though.

I'm actually confused as to why you're taking such a huge stance against it. You went 0-45. Deal with it and move on. I doubt you'll do it again. It's possible, but I still doubt it.

The only reason why you believe it's "not acceptable" is because you're the one experiencing it. Or am I missing something here? If I am completely wrong in my statement, then please, feel free to answer as to why you believe it's not acceptable.
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90 Blood Elf Priest
0
11/17/2012 06:32 PMPosted by Konviction
explaining 0-45


Yeah, they did. You either ignored it, or fail at math.

You have an 85% chance to not get loot in a given roll. So, the odds of not getting loot over the course of 45 rolls is 0.85 ^ 45, which is approximately 0.0007, or 7 out of ten thousand.


11/17/2012 07:02 PMPosted by Konviction
So not sure what it is you think i don't understand?


How math works, apparently.


You have an 85% chance to not get loot in a given roll. So, the odds of not getting loot over the course of 45 rolls is 0.85 ^ 45, which is approximately 0.0007, or 7 out of ten thousand.
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90 Goblin Shaman
15035
11/17/2012 02:24 PMPosted by Postonforums
what the hell do they teach in 5th grade math these days that so many people don't understand the term random or chance.
Everyone that disagrees with me is a troll?

11/17/2012 07:02 PMPosted by Konviction
I am not"crying" I am simply asking Blizz is 0-45 acceptable. So far they haven't given me an answer
And they won't so all your doing is shouting at the sky. Sorry they won't address your bad luck streak. *shrug*
Edited by Kegg on 11/17/2012 8:03 PM PST
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100 Orc Death Knight
18445
Is it acceptable that people did well over 500 runs for the barons mount when it was buffed to be at least 1% years ago?

What is acceptable?

Just stop crying and move on. I bet there are times in this game where you have got extremely lucky and you would just instantly gloss over that fact. I can't blame you because we all do, it's extremely easy to focus on the negatives.

People have shown you the math, just learn to accept it. It's unlikely but it's well within the realm of possibility that someone out there (perhaps it's you, if you're being 100% honest, which I still don't think you are) can be this unlucky.
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100 Undead Warrior
14300
I love how people don't believe I'm being 100% honest. That only furthers my point. No one posting is going 0-45 and they believe it to be extremly unlikely. I dare say almost impossible because I'm guessing they are getting drops well before 45 kills.

I understand the math. My question about not understanding was meant to address the poster above that statement.

I understand LFR is designed for a 15% loot drop...0-45 is nowhere near 15%.

I have played since Vanilla and rarely come to the forums. I started this thread in customer service. I didnt move the thread to this forum and I wasn't really asking anything other than what are the odds and is 0-45 an acceptable design for LFR.

Again this was a customer service request but if people are going to keep bashing me then I'll keep responding to those bashings in a civil tone. Unlike most of there responses.
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90 Orc Shaman
13550
11/17/2012 06:32 PMPosted by Konviction
If people would read all my post they would see I said 0-45 was between 3 diff toons in LFR and it was a 2 week streak. I NEVER said I haven't recieved any loot. Just goes to show how smart the forum trolls are.


Going 2 weeks without loot on an individual basis is nothing special, though.

The whole "0-45" thing is also pretty misleading because it makes it sound like you're going around cherry-picking. I mean, if you asked around you could probably find other individuals on your server or in your guild who went or will go 0-15 at some point. What do you do then, add them to the total so it becomes 0-45, 60, 75, 90, and 105? No, that's stupid.

11/17/2012 06:32 PMPosted by Konviction
The valor points being an alturnative to loot up is an option but only if I want to grind rep with the same factions over and over. And by the time you get enuff valor to gear up we will be on 5.3 or so. The point being its not a viable way to gear up for current content for more than 1 or maybe 2 toons if you play wow 40 hours a week.


Assuming a life of 6 months and the current rewards of LFR, you'll have ~10k Valor to spend on each character by the end of a tier just from slaughtering every LFR boss every week. That's not counting any dailies or dungeons or bonus valor from capping 1 character first.

Also, why does the game need to make it convenient for you to have legions of alts? Cataclysm (imo) went too far in that regard. It should be rather easily understood that the more alts you want, the more time you need to throw into the game.

11/17/2012 07:02 PMPosted by Konviction
DS LFR wasnt perfect. But it wasnt that bad. it had many advantages over the current system IMO.


Not really.

11/17/2012 07:02 PMPosted by Konviction
I am not"crying" I am simply asking Blizz is 0-45 acceptable. So far they haven't given me an answer "shrug"


Yes, it is perfectly acceptable. And again, your "0-45" is pretty misleading since you're combining statistics to reach it. My guild did an LFR run this week of Heart of Fear. There were probably 8 or so people who didn't get a piece of loot from it in the 25 man raid. By your logic, those 8 people went 0-48 and they should all come post on the forums. Doesn't that sound a bit stupid to you?
Edited by Hyjinx on 11/17/2012 8:48 PM PST
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40 Orc Warlock
10460

I understand LFR is designed for a 15% loot drop...0-45 is nowhere near 15%.


Yes but its actually 45 - x
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90 Blood Elf Priest
0
I understand the math. My question about not understanding was meant to address the poster above that statement.

I understand LFR is designed for a 15% loot drop...0-45 is nowhere near 15%.


If i flip a coin once, and get heads, does that mean it's not 50%?

That is exactly the same thing you're saying (just more extreme to get the point across).

You don't understand the math if you think 0-45 is not possible. Just because you don't understand it, doesn't mean it's not true. I don't know how else to possibly explain it.

edit:
Actually, go flip a coin 45times. Come back and tell us if you get exactly 12-13 heads. Barring a freak accident, you won't.

That doesn't mean the coin is broken.
Edited by Arianity on 11/17/2012 9:20 PM PST
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90 Pandaren Monk
11455
RNG is RNG.

I was on a 51 loss streak before winning my tier gloves two days ago.

Good luck breaking it before I did.
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