None of my statement mentioned anything about "causation". My statement was that there exist correlation between the two numbers, and not about "why" (causation)... ie: "a guild that raided T13 is more likely to attempt a boss at T14," not "a guild that raided T13 causes the guild to attempt a boss at T14."
That is effectively what you're implying though, since your stance leads itself to "Stone Guard is harder" as long as at any point any less than 54k guilds, including guilds that don't exist and will never pull the boss in the next 9 months, do not kill Stone Guards.
I doubt it's possible to verify consider data for guilds attempting a boss is not publicly available... It may be possible to verify an alternate but similar statement "Guilds that raided in T13 is likely that they will down a boss in T14" because data for "down a boss in T14" is actually available, and may possibly imply the first statement (guilds that down a boss in T14 is basically a subset of guilds that raid in T14)... Meh, too much work for an internet argument...
I would say that's the point.
When people make claims about how 98% of success is on Stone Guards, they're operating on what is probably a number that doesn't relate.
At the same time, when people make claims about how "a majority of raiders" or "50% of raiders" and all that, that's also based on flawed numbers (relating T13 to T14, or if you're like Sarosha, if they haven't killed it they're clearly stuck on it).
You can't half-bake numbers, take a 32, take a 54, handwave 3 or 4 pretty big assumptions in, and then say that it's likely. Especially when the implications are hilariously different if - 10% of those 22k still exist, 50% of those 22k still exist, 90% of those 22k still exist, 30% of those 22k are already covered in the current numbers because the new guilds that have clocked are made up of members of those guilds.
Already they are quitting and !@#$%ing when we dont one shot it. Uhhh...it takes more than 6 attempts per night to master this stuff...
Not sure if you're completely serious here. If you'd said "it takes more than 6 attempts per fight", that might actually make sense - as in 6 attempts to get used to a pattern recognition that this time it's the GREEN thing that hurts and next fight it's the BLUE thing that hurts.
Once you've learned to dodge thing on ground, that's a "skill" that you have forever. Encountering a circle in Stonecore and dodging it should make you better off when you come across a different circle in Dragon Soul, and then a different circle in Stone Guards. If it literally requires 6 attempts every night to "relearn" mechanics that have already been learned, how far are you taking that? Does it take you 6 attempts to relearn that Dots are good every night? Do you really believe that people aren't capable of remembering something that happened in another location/night and using that knowledge to NOT have to relearn things from scratch?
I mean, while mistakes happen, it's a pretty farreaching claim to suggest that people should expect 6 wipes every night for people to remaster things they spent 10/15/20/50/200 attempts learning. The entire point of farm content is that you've already done the learning; all you're doing is repeating the thing you already mastered and can do it again at will.
There are many ways to create a challenge, managing CC. CC is GONE from the game entirely. Managing differnt types of debuffs, think Chromaggus. Managing resistances and vulnerablities, think MC and BWL.
Now, for some strange reason, the entire game is based on moving your character around, in SG, while staying close to someone and doing something. Its 3 things to think about, sometimes more as a healer, its a big cognitive load.
That's because most of the former aren't actually "skills" that lead to challenge. They're about mashing a button or farming loot.
Whereas spatial reasoning, reaction times, coordination and teamwork - these are actual skill factors that lead to challenge.
When you talk about managing different types of debuffs - that's the premise that goes into most of the bosses - Garalon, Stone Guards, Gara'jal, Shek'zeer, Amber Shaper, Elegon, etc. You're using the term "manage debuffs", but what you're really meaning is "mash Decursive and play Whackamole on Green Boxes". THe actual fights are what involve actually managing debuffs - and reacting or manipulating them intelligently.