So I've now had a chance to go through most current content (other than H sha) with the current nerfs, and my reaction is that...the sky really isn't falling.
I mean it was a nerf.
It puts us around similar throughput on most fights (though I still win a lot of fights) with average play. With flawless play our burst healing (IE with TFT) is still unrivaled by anyone except shammies or holy paladins using CDS (and still beat by disc priest spirit shell but...who's isnt?). A number of kills in the logs I'm going to link happened to have worse play than normal (because obviously whenever I'm destroying the other healers while still at full mana we wipe, cuz duh), and my logs are by no means "amazing" but I was still able to compete very well as per usual. I am no longer blowing everyone away though, this is for sure.
There are a few problems with monks though. First off, the difference between a monk with flawless play and average play is night and day. Easily 50-100% more throughput. On the other hand, most healers with flawless play can probably expect 20-40% increased throughput but they also are able to keep people alive much better.
So now, bad monks are far below most healers. From experience, I've outhealed numerous 470~ ilvl monks with my 450 (now 460~) ilvl holy paladin in raids. It's painfully obvious that if blizzard wants the 'average' player to continue playing, monks will need massive changes.
On the other hand, amazing monks are now around similar throughput to the other healers. Assuming flawless play on both sides. But the problem is, we bring nothing other than our own personal-survivability as utility now that throughput is equal.
Discs have DR CD's, higher raw throughput, while most of that throughput is absorbs, and SS which completely eliminates most "burst damage" phases of an encounter.
Rshammies bring similar HPS when you include their CD's. This means they have lower "average" healing than us, but whenever its needed they can burst as much or more than we can with flawless play, and all they do is press 1 button (and can continue triage healing etc). They also bring spirit link and mana tide, which feels nearly mandatory for healing through burst phases w/o a disc priest. Oh and they bring +10% health to everyone (great for surviving those "near one shot" mechanics, which can prevent tons of wipes.)
Holy paladins have tons of utility and some of the best tank healing in the game. They can also spec for amazing burst AoE or sustained single target etc, as fights demand. This makes them very versatile and effective on nearly every fight.
Rdruids. I feel bad for them. They are most definitely in a very bad spot at the moment. This thread isn't about them, but for comparisons sake they bring high sustained healing with negligible burst (though higher "average" the lack of strong burst leaves them sorely lacking in the raw HPS department). They have strong healing while moving via rejuvy/swiftmend/symbiosis SWG, etc. As well, they do bring utility in the form of symbiosis, FF, combat rez as a healer, etc. It doesn't make up for their lacking HPS, nor is it as strong as the above 3's.
Holy priests: Unsure how they play out, from my experience they are weaker than rshams/MW at raid heals and worse at tank healing than holy paladins but are sort of a jack of all trades between the two. However, it's currently outshadow'd by disc which completely dominates everything (except for tsulong, where GS is OP.)
Long story short, with near-flawless play on all sides, monks bring similar (slightly higher in many cases) throughput as most other healers, while lacking the utility that makes the other healers great.
With bad play, MW are simply far behind other classes at similar skill levels, at least from what I've seen.
So while I say the sky isn't falling, I don't feel useful to my raid. I'm brought because I have relatively solid performances, am normally reliable (show up to raids on time etc), and because I perform mechanics well. Though I have my days where I just mess up every mechanics (cough tsulong nightmares I hate you). But regardless, I feel like I'd be more useful on a disc priest/holy paladin/rsham than my MW.
On another note, I've always been a proponent of intellect stacking. I've stacked int before the patch first hit, after it hit, and I'm still stacking it. There hasn't been a single fight so far where (when properly healing) I felt like I couldn't make it through a fight. I'm currently around 7500 spirit, flask/food int, and have around 33k spellpower buffed and I love it. I very rarely SCK because it's cost was increased by a lot more than jab. (Jabs effective increase ~3k, SCK's effective increase is ~6k.) Also, when you have around 10-12 targets with RnM jab>SCK HPS wise anyway. Anyway, my main point is that I'm still stacking int and I'm not having trouble with mana. You can point at my gear and say I'm well overgeared for most of the fights in the log, but I'm still running less spirit than most. (Admittedly, if you factor in trinkets I'm probably around 10k passive spirit.) I generally raid with 2rshams/1disc, so I may get more regen than others.
Anyway, most of my conclusions are drawn from my most recent raid nights logs here(4/12):
There are definitely still fights which dont favor us, such as lei shi. The lack of easy ability to fore-know when get away is coming makes it feel like a waste to constantly RnM, but once I started spamming it helped a lot [hey just like when I started healing as a MW]. At the moment our tank burst is still worthwhile for fights like lei shi though.
Anyway, I feel like the nerfs took us too low in throughput when you take into consideration the lack of utility comparing to other healers throughput+utility. I don't think we're now "absolutely broken" in terms of throughput, we're still competitive. I feel like theres a lot wrong with the class, but with my current gear/progression its not enough for me to reroll for current progression. Obviously what I do for next tier depends on buffs and how lucky I am when gearing up alts.
Also I don't feel like mana is nearly as bad as most people say it is, maybe it's a playstyle thing though.