Mages, post-Fire nerf: show us your parses

90 Undead Mage
11870
Fair enough.
And I don't think this process is a total waste of time, and certainly including real reviewable data in to the conversations helps to keep the communication practical. So people will realize that this is not a prove your opinion and Blizzard will act based on that, but a back up your opinion with data so we have a realistic conversation and not just speculation so that the developers can potential weed on out whiners versus those with opinions based on real experience, then all good.


I have posted our logs for those who care to look.

The #1 frustration for me is that the nerf to CM set me back to the beginning of the tier in terms of stability. When we started out, I would do well on some pulls, not so well on others. I would see our other dps gain dps as we learned the fight and my dps seemed to be a total crap shoot. As time went by, and people geared up (including me) I saw my dps not only go up, but stabilize. I would be more consistent from pull to pull on progression bosses. I was able to learn the fights and improve my personal performance, just like everyone else.

I spent a month at or near the bottom in my raid group. I still remember the first fight I actually was top dps (aside from our tank) on a kill. I was elated!

Last monday (pre 5.1) I was sitting on about 31% crit raid buffed. I finally had enough crit to be able to play with some of my secondary stats without feeling that I was going to go back into the crap shoot that was early 5.0.5. It felt good to be able to fight with my fellow raiders for that top dps spot! I felt I was contributing, and I didn't feel like I was holding us back any longer. 31% crit meant an expected crit rate of about 42%. This allowed me to move more freely. It allowed me to not have to stress out so much when combustion was coming off CD because I knew that it would probably be *soon* when I could put up a good combustion. It made the spec play the way a spec should; You had opportunity to play well, and you had opportunity to capitalize on those opportunities to improve your performance. In short, it allowed a good mage to be good.

After the hotfix to fix scaling, I was still in the same gear. I had 31% crit raid buffed, but now, I was looking at 35% expected crit. I wasn't as mobile. I was stressing out about combustion coming off CD - mostly due to seeing 15k ignites for the past 10 seconds...

To get back to that 42% expected crit, I now need 36.6% crit. This *may* be obtainable in full heroic gear, but more than likely it will be in the middle to the end of the next tier before I am able to reach that level again. That to me is unacceptable. To have a spec that flows, and to have that flow dashed seemingly on a whim (hotfix), knowing that it won't flow that way until the next tier, and not being able to do a thing about it are disheartening and frustrating.

Logs are all fine and dandy, but people will generally post logs to fit their opinion. "I say I do less, so here are logs that prove it" or "I say we're fine, so here's logs to prove it". People are posting LFR logs. People are posting specific logs from specific fights. It really becomes as meaningless and empty as someone saying "I went down 20%" or "I stayed the same".

I look to something more unbiased. Raidbots for example. Its a sampling of all of the parses. There is no single person trying to prove an agenda there. Its all about the data. If you pull 25n and look at the last 2 weeks, Fire dropped from 2nd (behind combat rogues) to 3rd. If you limit it to just the last week (which still includes pulls from before the hotfix), Fire drops to 8th.

By this time next week, I would expect it to drop even further. Which is sad.
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100 Gnome Mage
18830
My concern with all of this info and details that get provided is that it will be a long time before changes are made to balance this out again...leading to a possible marginalization of mages in raids.

I have been around to see the "sunwelling" of mages where I sat outside and I have seen the days of ICC where the 3 fire mages were 1-2-3 for many encounters.

The issue here is that with many guilds working through progression, many with extremely tight enrage timers and dps requirements, nerfing a class, in this way, is going to have a negative impact
for players in the "fat end" of the bell curve of raiders being able to progress.

The question over whether or not to nerf mages is open for real debate. However, making this kind of change...without any testing...in a hotfix...in the middle of heroic progression is sub optimal at best and irresponsible at worst.
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90 Gnome Mage
6870
Whatever.

GC's response is stupid. So instead of actually responding to the issue (blizzard over-nerfed fire mages), he focuses lazer-like on the nature of the adjective used to describe the nerf.

His tweet, and your post, make it sound like they are actually interested in seeing logs. Yet another lie.


I quested this thread to determine it's nature as well.
That said, I don't think the response is stupid. They could of said: we are not seeing that. End of response.
Instead they said they were not seeing that (granted probably too early at that time to really tell) and are simply asking for some record of what people are saying.
We know that many of the posts on the forums are whining, trolling, non-objective.

If people really think the nerf is over done, for the love of mana biscuits, people should at least post a log of what the say.

Will it make a difference? Can't really say.
It is a better way to make an opinion than just saying with no data? Absolutely.
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90 Blood Elf Mage
11000
Two things.

Even if you buffed Pyroblast and Fireball to the extent where the damage was exactly the same as before, the reduction in crits and chaining Pyroblasts into a large Combustion removes a lot of the ineffable playability of the spec. I understand concerns like this aren't the primary focus in balancing, but suddenly making the spec feel exactly the same as it did when I was first entering MSV or seeing Combustions smaller than the ones I was putting on H Madness is a psychological deterrent to playing it much greater than a 10-15% nerf. It's really bizarre that something wasn't first done to reduce damage without making the playstyle take several steps backwards.

EDIT:

Howmanylichs' post at the top of the page states this in a much more direct way.

Second, this thread is indeed a very cheeky way to tell people to shut up about the nerfs. I can understand the motivation as people howling about how the spec is the worst in history now are clearly not looking at it from a rational perspective, but that's hardly justification to reply with, essentially "Post logs. Bet you can't scrub."

Here are my Frost logs from the Terrace of Endless Spring this week.

http://www.worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-k348pkeb7jmin3r1/

Am I really the 5th best Frost player in the world on Protectors? That seems highly doubtful. I'm in some LFR gear, my gems are almost certainly wrong due to my lack of rigorously weighing out my stats after the sudden switch over the weekend, and I only have 2pt14. The data is skewed by the fact that people with decent gear are probably all doing Heroic or Elite Protectors too. In addition to that I certainly can't be playing it at the highest level considering I've never touched the spec before in my life. What this data indicates to me is that almost no one who knows what they're doing is playing Frost on this encounter. How's that for spec balance?
Edited by Mahourai on 12/6/2012 11:17 AM PST
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MVP
90 Human Mage
10015

Logs are all fine and dandy, but people will generally post logs to fit their opinion. "I say I do less, so here are logs that prove it" or "I say we're fine, so here's logs to prove it". People are posting LFR logs. People are posting specific logs from specific fights. It really becomes as meaningless and empty as someone saying "I went down 20%" or "I stayed the same".


Sure - but because they're actually posted, we (players) are able to look at them and see if they legitimately support the poster's argument.

My suspicion since the nerf has been that the truth lies between the two extremes: that the nerf was too harsh, but not nearly as devastating as some players claim. I don't imagine that this thread will provide a definitive answer, but it should do a better job of pointing us in the right direction than threads full of claims with no data whatsoever.
Edited by Lhivera on 12/6/2012 11:17 AM PST
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90 Undead Mage
11870
Two things.

Even if you buffed Pyroblast and Fireball to the extent where the damage was exactly the same as before, the reduction in crits and chaining Pyroblasts into a large Combustion removes a lot of the ineffable playability of the spec. I understand concerns like this aren't the primary focus in balancing, but suddenly making the spec feel exactly the same as it did when I was first entering MSV or seeing Combustions smaller than the ones I was putting on H Madness is a psychological deterrent to playing it much greater than a 10-15% nerf. It's really bizarre that something wasn't first done to reduce damage without making the playstyle take several steps backwards.

Second, this thread is indeed a very cheeky way to tell people to shut up about the nerfs. I can understand the motivation as people howling about how the spec is the worst in history now are clearly not looking at it from a rational perspective, but that's hardly justification to reply with, essentially "Post logs. Bet you can't scrub."

Here are my Frost logs from the Terrace of Endless Spring this week.

http://www.worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-k348pkeb7jmin3r1/

Am I really the 5th best Frost player in the world on Protectors? That seems highly doubtful. I'm in some LFR gear, my gems are almost certainly wrong due to my lack of rigorously weighing out my stats after the sudden switch over the weekend, and I only have 2pt14. The data is skewed by the fact that people with decent gear are probably all doing Heroic or Elite Protectors too. In addition to that I certainly can't be playing it at the highest level considering I've never touched the spec before in my life. What this data indicates to me is that almost no one who knows what they're doing is playing Frost on this encounter. How's that for spec balance?


I ranked 6th (now 20th) in the world for Arcane in Garajal. In fact, of the 8 bosses we killed that night, I ranked as arcane on 3 of them. Much like you, I hadn't touched arcane in a LONG time. I even forgot to use my Arc Power a 2nd time on the attempt.

Spec balance indeed. At the end of beta, it was determined that arcane, frost, and fire are "really close". However, only a heavy handed nerf to fire and a significant buff to arcane is enough to have people try arcane and frost out? Why is that? OH! That's right! Most of the fights are favorable to fire. Most of the fights are unfriendly to arcane. Most of the fights which frost could do well on, fire could do better, taking advantage of dmg multipliers, a long living add, w/e.
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90 Undead Mage
11870

Logs are all fine and dandy, but people will generally post logs to fit their opinion. "I say I do less, so here are logs that prove it" or "I say we're fine, so here's logs to prove it". People are posting LFR logs. People are posting specific logs from specific fights. It really becomes as meaningless and empty as someone saying "I went down 20%" or "I stayed the same".


Sure - but because they're actually posted, we (players) are able to look at them and see if they legitimately support the poster's argument.

My suspicion since the nerf has been that the truth lies between the two extremes: that the nerf was too harsh, but not nearly as devastating as some players claim. I don't imagine that this thread will provide a definitive answer, but it should do a better job of pointing us in the right direction than threads full of claims with no data whatsoever.


I don't know what to say anymore, Lhiv. You are a respected theorycrafter - by myself and others. You have done some really good work for mages. I have defended your lack of raiding experience in the past, and for the most part, the things you comment on, it truly is irrelevant. This is not one of those times. I'm sorry.

I am a good player. I play with other good players. I can see exactly what the nerfs did in practice. Not just theory, but practice. I worked my !@# off trying to push as much dps as I possibly could this past week. I dug in and pushed as hard as I could to prove to myself that I can still be fire for progression. I pushed myself to do the best I absolutely could, because I don't want to play arcane. I don't like it. I find it frustrating on movement heavy fights (Lei Shi?). And frost just isn't a good fit for me. I tried, oh lord I tried. I did not suddenly become inept at playing fire. Nothing changed but what was changed by Blizzard. And from one week to the next, I go from fighting it out with some of the best players WoW has to offer for top dps spot to embarrassing myself over and over. Pull after pull.

Next week, I am an arcane mage.

The truth is, and this is fact, if *anything* fire could have used a SP coefficient nerf on pyro and a reversion of combustion to pre 5.1 levels. Something that would have at *most* put them middle of the pack. At most. Mages bring 1 thing to a raid this tier - damage. We don't have that damage, we're a hindrance and not a help. The nerf that was handed out not only was devastating to fire mage's damage in a really competitive raid group, but absolutely destroyed the spec's flow. Did it hinder the top end mages? The one's parsing those RNG boosted parses that piss people off so much? A bit, yep. But those parses will still happen. But it absolutely ran over the undergeared mages. It squarely placed the entry level for the spec to be consistently competitive out of the reach of 90% of the player base.

I know you're trying to take an objective view of the class. I know you're trying to see the big picture and where this will lead to down the road. However, I'm not raiding "down the road". I'm raiding right now. Here. Now. Today.
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100 Blood Elf Mage
8800
Why are they coming to us when there are parse aggregators.

http://www.raidbots.com/dpsbot/Feng_the_Accursed/10N/all/7/60/default/

Is there something about Raidbots that I don't know that makes it inaccurate?

Because of the way that Fire scales with crit, I think overall parse averages are being pulled up by people in great gear. It's those in the middle that are suffering. If you look at the above parse I posted (I picked it because it's the closest thing to Patchwerk this tier) you see that fire got a pretty significant nerf, and is still trending downward.

It's even worse on Elegon N
http://www.raidbots.com/dpsbot/Elegon/10N/all/7/60/default/

I think it's clear that devs are worried about crit scaling down the road, so rather than fix the problem when we're all sitting at 65% crit chance with CM in t15H, they nipped it in the bud. The result of this is that we all feel like we're back in preraid blues, and our damage is back to middle of the pack at best, and lower and lower. Also at lower gear levels the variance fight to fight is even worse.
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100 Blood Elf Mage
8800
Fire will be fine in a tier of gear or so (basically once we all add back the 7-9% crit we lost due to the CM nerf). I just don't like that they pulled the rug out from under the spec.
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100 Worgen Hunter
13240
RNG and luck aren't synonyms, kiddos.
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90 Blood Elf Mage
11000
12/06/2012 12:02 PMPosted by Peverell
RNG and luck aren't synonyms, kiddos.


Thanks for this completely worthless troll post, the likes of which you have been making all across mage threads for days.
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90 Gnome Mage
11545
12/06/2012 12:00 PMPosted by Wexler
Fire will be fine in a tier of gear or so (basically once we all add back the 7-9% crit we lost due to the CM nerf). I just don't like that they pulled the rug out from under the spec.


Assuming they don't decide to nerf it again at that point
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100 Blood Elf Mage
8800
12/06/2012 12:02 PMPosted by Peverell
RNG and luck aren't synonyms, kiddos.


Actually they are http://www.merriam-webster.com/thesaurus/luck
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100 Blood Elf Mage
18255


Of course they can. GC did not come to me. What happens is:

1) People post @ghostcrawler on Twitter, saying, "Fire Mages are dead last/terrible/lost 20% DPS" and the like.
2) GC responds saying something like, "We're not seeing that, do you have a parse?"

In short, they are not saying "we need your data," they are saying "don't make claims that you can't back up with data."

This thread is a place for people to make claims that they can back up with data — and for other people to discuss those claims and whether or not the data actually supports them.


anyone who really cares about it is WELL capable to typing www.worldoflogs.com, look and compare before and after nerf. WE DONT NEED ANYONE TO POST THEIR LOGS. WE ARE ALL VERY CAPABLE OF LOOKING FOR THEM. It takes like 3 minutes. So if his response is to the LFR mage with probably no regular / heroic content experience who is just screaming on his twitter about it, he should start responding to the REAL QUESTIONS. such as : HOW COME YOU GUYS DO WEEKS OF PTR TESTING AND SUDDENLY !@#$ UP WITH HORRIBLE CHANGES OUT OF THE BLUE WITH ZERO TESTING SPECIALLY WHEN THE OUTCOME IS CLEARLY SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
OBVIOUS.....

(sorry for the caps its just part of expressing myself when i type)

The nerf goes from 5-7% in some fights, to 15-25% in other fights, but the major problem is that they brough back the aweful retard fire game play in witch now we have times where we spam fireball 13 times to get a crit. DIDNT THEY WANT TO FIX THIS? WELL THEY DID ONLY TO %^-* UP AND BRAKE IT AGAIN FOR THE TIER /CLAP


^^^^^^^^^^^^^
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90 Gnome Monk
7430
Whatever.

GC's response is stupid. So instead of actually responding to the issue (blizzard over-nerfed fire mages), he focuses lazer-like on the nature of the adjective used to describe the nerf.


Where is your evidence that Blizzard "over-nerfed fire mages"? This is the entire issue. Just because you aren't 10-15% ahead of the rest of your raid any more does not mean your spec was over-nerfed.
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90 Undead Mage
11870
Whatever.

GC's response is stupid. So instead of actually responding to the issue (blizzard over-nerfed fire mages), he focuses lazer-like on the nature of the adjective used to describe the nerf.


Where is your evidence that Blizzard "over-nerfed fire mages"? This is the entire issue. Just because you aren't 10-15% ahead of the rest of your raid any more does not mean your spec was over-nerfed.


Where is your evidence they didn't? I made a thread on the mage forums asking people to specify *why* they thought fire needed a nerf. We had too many mages saying fire "may have" needed a nerf, with nothing to back it up. There was maybe 1 response that justified a potential nerf to fire, and the reasoning was that a good fire mage could get more out of their class / spec than a good (anyone else). So... not really any reason mages thought they needed a nerf beyond people like yourself making accusations about fire being 10-15% ahead when they're not.

They did over nerf fire. The evidence is in the statistical averages if you'd care to look. They've been referenced many times in many different threads, including this one. Fire was never ahead 10-15%. If any specific mage was, that was on that particular raid group, not the spec as a whole.

Edit: Forgot to finish my thought - woops :)
Edited by Howmanylichs on 12/6/2012 1:18 PM PST
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100 Blood Elf Mage
8800
Whatever.

GC's response is stupid. So instead of actually responding to the issue (blizzard over-nerfed fire mages), he focuses lazer-like on the nature of the adjective used to describe the nerf.


Where is your evidence that Blizzard "over-nerfed fire mages"? This is the entire issue. Just because you aren't 10-15% ahead of the rest of your raid any more does not mean your spec was over-nerfed.


We'll know in a week, but if you look at those parse aggregates I've posted above, Fire is already below it's pre-5.1 damage average and continues to trend downward. This is while every other spec's damage has been trending up, as gear improves.
Edited by Wexler on 12/6/2012 1:18 PM PST
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100 Gnome Mage
9540
Why are they coming to us when there are parse aggregators.

http://www.raidbots.com/dpsbot/Feng_the_Accursed/10N/all/7/60/default/

Is there something about Raidbots that I don't know that makes it inaccurate?


Only that raidbots does not show the immediate impact of any nerf, as its sample period uses pre-nerf data to compile the daily number.

So today's Fire number, using a 1 week sample is taking data from 1-2 days of post-5.1 but pre-nerf OPness. The reason the 1 week has dropped so suddenly these past few days is those initial post-5.1 days are falling off. Thats also the reason why dps didn't drop immediately after the nerf.

So tomorrow or Saturday to be safe we should see the accurate rankings on the 1 week sample. It'll take at least another week post that to use the 1 week sample to get an idea of scaling (Which Fire has been good at).

Then there's selection bias which is also going to mess with the numbers. So you can assume Fire will actually be a bit higher than where it normalizes on Saturday.
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90 Gnome Monk
7430


Where is your evidence that Blizzard "over-nerfed fire mages"? This is the entire issue. Just because you aren't 10-15% ahead of the rest of your raid any more does not mean your spec was over-nerfed.


Where is your evidence they didn't?

[snip]

They did over nerf fire. The evidence is in the statistical averages if you'd care to look. They've been referenced many times in many different threads, including this one. Fire was never ahead 10-15%. If any specific mage was, that was on that particular raid group, not the spec as a whole.


I'm not the one clamoring for a change, I'm more or less happy with the way things are. If you want a change made you need to prove that it is needed. (BTW, I have no dog in the dps race hunt, I play tanks and healers in parties/raids).

You mean the statistical averages that currently show fire being in the top half of all dps specs despite this "over-nerfing"? Granted not much into the top half, but still above #12. Sorry, but middle of the pack is not "over-nerfed". Yes, fire took an uppercut to the chops but the data thus far does not show it being in a standing 8 count, let alone through the ropes and down onto the concrete like some have claimed.
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