Are MMOs dying?

85 Worgen Rogue
14125
12/10/2012 03:31 AMPosted by Demonae
what is xfire?


nuff said of why should anyone should care about xfire
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90 Blood Elf Priest
5050
I'm certainly not suggesting everyone runs XFire, but realistically there's no reason to think the enormous percentages showing reduced time (note: not subs) spent playing MMOs over the past year is some fluke, especially since they're not showing that kind of decline in the overall user base.

Basically, the numbers show just a huge enormous drop in MMO time. You can say XFire isn't representative, but it seemed to correlate very well with the enormous drops in interest in SWTOR and GW2 after launch and seems to show that MoP provided a small, very short-term bump in WoW numbers but now the numbers are the worst they've been all year.

If they're wrong for WoW, then why are they seemingly accurate for SWTOR or GW2? If they're not, I'd love to see other evidence. Sure the sub numbers did bump slightly immediately after the expo launched, but we're talking current usage figures, not past sub figures from a few months ago.

really don't care if people are personally offended by the idea that MMOs may be fading fast. I'm just asking for anyone to provide evidence to counter the XFire numbers. I hope MMOs are doing awesome, but all I've seen if you dig for data is WoW now holding the lion's share of a rapidly declining market.
Edited by Dliver on 12/10/2012 3:54 AM PST
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90 Blood Elf Death Knight
7070
Maybe more people are spending more time on WoW than before launch than they'd like to see in numbers, as reported by Xfire and they uninstalled it out of shame.
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90 Human Death Knight
12635
hahahahaaha

http://beta.xfire.com/games/wow

whatever this crappy xfire thing is, it thinks only 5000 people are playing wow.

what a pile of garbage.
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90 Night Elf Priest
9800
are they dying .. no. their are just more options now and at least 1 big game launched recently. you also have the holidays which is always a slow time. as for xfire.. it never had a broad base compared to the 12 million+ who were playing at one point.. so its not a good indicator of anything except that xfire is dying.

games that may have other people's attention right now
Call of Duty Black Ops II (1 billion in sales in its first 15 days)
Star Wars = Free to Play
Guild Wars 2 = Free to play (servers are completely full last night)
Rift just launched a new Expansion
Far Cry 3 just come out..

just alot of options right now for players to do other things.. i dont think its indicates the genre is dying.. just that it has competition and will wax and wane like any other genre ..
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90 Troll Shaman
7380
hahahahaaha

http://beta.xfire.com/games/wow

whatever this crappy xfire thing is, it thinks only 5000 people are playing wow.

what a pile of garbage.

Pretty sure it's talking about 5000 people using xfire on WoW, not every WoW subscriber.
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90 Blood Elf Warlock
11190
12/10/2012 03:56 AMPosted by Pixxi
MMO's are getting suckier and suckier. SWTOR should show you that. It didn't even make it a year before going f2p because it sucks so bad. Imo WoW is the only viable MMO on the market and even WoW is just getting worse because Blizzard won't deal with a lot of issues.


Eh I think people were too mad over Mass Effect 3 and rage quit Swtor.
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90 Blood Elf Priest
5050
hahahahaaha

http://beta.xfire.com/games/wow

whatever this crappy xfire thing is, it thinks only 5000 people are playing wow.

what a pile of garbage.

Um, no it doesn't. Learn to read statistics.

That's like saying a political poll of 500 people is only predicting what those 500 people think. Don't be a moron.

Honestly, a consistent poll of 5000 people like XFire is providing is 10x a larger sample size than most political polls, which are still very scientific.
Edited by Dliver on 12/10/2012 4:07 AM PST
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90 Human Death Knight
12635
It clearly says:

Players: 5,299

It does not says it is a "poll" anywhere.

This thing is obviously some outdated piece of crap software most people have never heard of, ie. garbage!
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90 Blood Elf Priest
5050
It clearly says:

Players: 5,299

It does not says it is a "poll" anywhere.

This thing is obviously some outdated piece of crap software most people have never heard of, ie. garbage!


Please stop embarrassing yourself if you don't understand how a statistical sample works.

If you want to provide even the slightest suggestion this particular sample of 5000 is unreliable, do so. If you're just a moron, then recognize this, and stop speaking.

Better to remain silent than post such a dumb comment and confirm it for everyone.

There's a chance XFire may not be a random sample. I don't deny that. But since you probably don't understand the concept of a random sample, couldn't explain why XFire's numbers seem to correlate with past declines in other MMOs and can't provide any idea why their current numbers wouldn't be representative, you might just want to go sit in the corner and not pretend you have any idea what the actual topic is.
Edited by Dliver on 12/10/2012 4:13 AM PST
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90 Draenei Priest
9880
12/10/2012 03:37 AMPosted by Bartello
Maybe it's because it's the weekend and people are doing other things.


Weekend numbers are higher than weekday numbers.

12/10/2012 03:24 AMPosted by Dliver
SWTOR and GW2 are both down more than 80%.


I wonder how many GW2 players are just waiting for a WvW culling fix before going back. I know that's why I've shelved it for now. Too bad they don't have an exit survey like WoW so they can know what issues are causing players to leave.

Maybe traditional MMOs are dying though. I know I just want to play the good part, and not waste countless hours doing boring crap like the genre loves shoving at us. I'd definitely quit MMOs forever if someone just came out with a dungeon and raid game where there is absolutely no content outside of dungeons and raids. Other games already provide better competitive group content and better single-player questing content. The only thing non-MMOs are missing for me is great multiplayer dungeons and raids.
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90 Human Death Knight
12635
It clearly says:

Players: 5,299

It does not says it is a "poll" anywhere.

This thing is obviously some outdated piece of crap software most people have never heard of, ie. garbage!


Please stop embarrassing yourself if you don't understand how a statistical sample works.

If you want to provide even the slightest suggestion this particular sample of 5000 is unreliable, do so. If you're just a moron, then recognize this, and stop speaking.

Better to remain silent than post such a dumb comment and confirm it for everyone.


Yo, moron, nowhere on the page does it says it is a "statistical sample". Reading comprehension for the dumbass.
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90 Blood Elf Priest
5050


Please stop embarrassing yourself if you don't understand how a statistical sample works.

If you want to provide even the slightest suggestion this particular sample of 5000 is unreliable, do so. If you're just a moron, then recognize this, and stop speaking.

Better to remain silent than post such a dumb comment and confirm it for everyone.


Yo, moron, nowhere on the page does it says it is a "statistical sample". Reading comprehension for the dumbass.

For the last time I've mentioned many times if you don't think it's a random sample, suggest why it might not be.

Of course it's not a sample that includes all MMO users. If you think it does, you need to go finish high school.

It's not mentioned as a "statistical sample" because unlike you, they actually understand statistics and wouldn't go that far. But it's still a sample, and quite possibly a random sample, of a particular population of relevant gamers.

But please, obviously you have nothing intelligent to say on the matter so go away. You neither understand statistics, or randomness, and probably have the math skills of an eighth grader. You aren't contributing anything useful.

And maybe no one else will tell you this but you should be embarrassed to talk out of turn about something you don't know anything about. It was obnoxious a couple of months ago that people that know absolutely nothing about political science tried to tell pollsters how to do their jobs, and it's still obnoxious to read ignorant people try to ignore basic statistics because they don't like the facts.

But if you don't like these facts or this sample, suggest another one and why it's more representative. By all means.
Edited by Dliver on 12/10/2012 4:23 AM PST
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55 Blood Elf Death Knight
470
Just read an article on XFire showing WoW's hours played down on the weekend 70% this year.Even the numbers since MoP are down nearly 50% (from over 60,000 for a Sunday to closer to 30,000).SWTOR and GW2 are both down more than 80%.Are MMOs just done?


Another one of these threads! Let's sum this up.

GW2 sucks..........

SWTOR always sucked............

and.........xfire sucks..............

People only used xfire to stream but most have moved to twitch anyways. So to answer your questions, no, MMO games are not dying. Is there really a reason to keep this thread active? Or should we start more threads such as.......

Is the grass always going to be green? Seems like last season mine was green but now it is yellow.
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90 Human Death Knight
12635


Yo, moron, nowhere on the page does it says it is a "statistical sample". Reading comprehension for the dumbass.


Erp. Derp. For the last time I've mentioned many times if you don't think it's a random sample, suggest why it might not be.

Of course it's not a sample that includes all MMO users. If you think it does, you need to go finish high school.

It's not mentioned as a "statistical sample" because unlike you, they actually understand statistics and wouldn't go that far. But it's still a sample, and quite possibly a random sample, of a particular population of relevant gamers.

But please, obviously you have nothing intelligent to say on the matter so go away.


How can I prove something "isn't"?

I don't know why you keep bringing up this statistical sample crap, when the web page never says anywhere it is a sample?

Asking me to prove it "isn't" a sample, would be like me telling you to prove it "isn't" a representation of how many albino chickens are currently playing WoW at this moment. There is no way YOU can prove it "isn't" albino chickens, and I can't prove it "isn't" a "statistical sample".

My point is this:

No where on the page does it say it "IS" a sample, or albino chickens, so therefore, it most likely "Isn't".
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90 Human Paladin
12570
Using XFire for comparisons over long periods is problematic, since usage of that tool could be changing. Shorter term changes (like, since GW2 or MoP released) are more likely to be due to actual changes in game activity among XFire users.

It would be useful if XFire also gave stats on total number of "active XFire users" so the time/game figures could be normalized.
Edited by Osmeric on 12/10/2012 4:23 AM PST
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24 Blood Elf Hunter
6210
So this xfire thingy is the Nielson Ratings for MMO's?

How many people use that thing?
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