12/16/2012 02:07 PMYou can guarantee whatever you like, you can't, however, refute the mathematical analysis by saying "nuh-uh" and leaving it at that.
Posted by Lailala
The reason you can't find them is because the Beta forums are gone, where I ran multiple different ability priorities through my sim to replicate this behavior to no apparent gain, or depending on the stall time, to a loss.
It's the same reason why they aren't finding any success with SimulationCraft. It's not because the sim is wrong--it's doing exactly what you tell it to do, and it's doing it better than you ever will.
There is an opportunity cost to waiting. Reread the EJ thread and look at how many times he has to say something along the lines of "without wasting resources." It is not as simple as it sounds, because the time constraints are tight.
Using this spreadsheet as my base: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgEwKT9377f3dHFCTFR4UEFJdXpOQno3cFVNRngyUnc
You use a rune every 1.77s on average in i509 gear. Since this is for 2H Frost, we'll double that since Obliterate takes 2 runes, so 3.54s. This means if you wait more than 3.54s, you're wasting resources and thus violating his recommendation already. Thus, it is not 6.67s maximum wait time, but half as long because time is a finite resource in a raid setting (the boss dies after "x" duration, which is relatively fixed, within a few seconds).
I also see that 83% of your GCDs are filled with offensive, damaging abilities, which means in that 3.54s timespan, you really only have about 0.60s of buffer room or else you will be wasting time that you could have spent on a damaging ability (i.e. resources). Coincidentally enough (or not; your call), my sim found that waiting right around 0.50s is the break-even point, after which longer periods become a loss.
With a 2.68s swing timer, a 0.60s window is very small. The probability that you will not have already swung is merely 22%, or 1 in 5, which means the probability of getting a KM proc to occur in that window is nearly 1 in 10. That is, approximately twice every minute you will get KM to proc in that window. If you are so fortunate that your next offensive ability is OB (but only 30% are), you would see a gain here, so that comes out to be approximately once per 90s. Otherwise, you're pushing out an offensive ability, or you would have had a KM proc without having to delay anyway (meaning your stalling did you no good). So, that's a staggering 90k / 90s, or +1k DPS, or less than 1% gain. For the fights that you are doing and the quantity you are doing, RNG will wash this out easily.
You use an offensive, damaging ability about every 1.2s, which means waiting any longer is pushing some ability out. Again, time is a relatively fixed and finite resource.
A KM-FS does as much damage as an N-OB, so it is better to burn KM on FS than overwrite KM accidentally by waiting.
So, in short, I absolutely guarantee you that if you even think about waiting up to 6.67s for KM-OB, you are absolutely going to hemorrhage your DPS. If you don't believe me, then go walk up to a training dummy and try it. You will be better off by totally ignoring KM.
I have yet to see any defensible support for stalling for KM being a gain, and I have yet to see any logs to back those statements up as well. While the lack of logs should not be considered proof itself, it should make you wonder if stalling is actually increasing your DPS, seeing as how it isn't showing up in logs (nor sims).