Reforging has NOTHING to do with statistics and probability...

Their is no good reason for a player to ever go to 15.5% hit rating. It should always be 15% or a bit lower and that "a bit lower" is more dependent on what the individual player gains or loses.

Actually, it does. There are cases where it cannot be helped. Hence, why you would use a prediction interval so large. That way, you can generalize about 99% of mages without having pedantic spats like this. Oh wait.

Your confidence interval would, by definition, be much smaller. In general, it's perfectly acceptable.

Theoretical mean value: 15%

Prediction interval: (14.5-15.5)

Confidence interval: (14.9-15.1)

All to demonstrate to an inquiring player that 15% is the effective hit cap. Will you hit exactly 15%? Yes, there are specific instances where you can. They are few. Could you be over hit cap? Yes. There are specific instances. They are few. Will you be under hit cap? Yes. There are specific instances. This is where the majority of players are.

There are how many combinations of gear given the amount of slots we have? This should be pretty simple application of classical probability given the # of slots we have available that can have hit on them. Given all the possible combinations on any given mage (including ones gearing up), there will always be someone in the range mentioned that cannot actually reforge or regem yet still be over hit cap.

This.

Your response makes no sense, despite your attempts to sound intelligent. Losing 170 of a secondary stat due to being way over cap is simply laziness. I have no doubt there are people who run around like that, but the fact remains, there is no excuse. Your claim that 15.5% hit is acceptable is simply not true, at least for anyone who actually cares enough to look into the issue in the first place.

I'm sure you have the data to support your claim. I wonder how much DPS is lost with 15.5% hit chance. You say +170 of a secondary stat...that equates, roughly, to a 78 DPS loss. Yet you say this is unacceptable...yet mages do anywhere from 20k to 150k DPS. Thinking 78 DPS matters is, by definition, pedantic when you account for the scale. 78 DPS loss out of even 20k is so incredibly small that you would not notice it even if you were paying attention.

The original quote stated the websites should be recommending something within that range. What is a range of continuous values? Well, if you want to be safe, you take the theoretical mean and estimate about 3 StDs. in each direction to establish an accurate prediction interval that will capture the true population mean.

I do appreciate your compliment, though. Basic statistical principles normally are not employed to make a person sound intelligent.

Again, pedantry over remedial and insignificant gains and losses.