Analysis of LFR Loot System

90 Draenei Shaman
13805
01/18/2013 03:24 PMPosted by Bronxe
33 LFR bosses down, 1 piece of loot.
The odds of that are only 3.2%. Your experience isn't typical. Sorry for your bad luck. I hope it improves soon.
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90 Draenei Shaman
13805
I think you're 100% wrong about this. In the old system people got angry because the baddie "took the loot I deserved". If nobody took anything they won't care.
There are people who are convinced that if they win loot on the current boss the game prevents them from winning on the next boss. You're overestimating the intelligence of the playerbase. Even in this topic I've seen people lamenting that they can't pass on loot so that others can win despite the fact that loot rolls have been independent of other players' since the expansion dropped.
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90 Night Elf Hunter
9245
01/16/2013 03:57 PMPosted by Tacobeef
All Blizzard needs to do is just show the rolls and prove that it's a fair system. I have a feeling they are hiding something and that people's experiences of extremely low drop rates (far unlikely for such a generous "15%" drop rate) are more true than they should be because Blizzard is tweaking the 15% to be lower if people are "too progressed" and therefore in danger of losing subscribers before a quarterly meeting.


I agree with the above poster. Even GC has admitted that there is a lot more going on behind the scenes with the loot rolls that the devs think we don't need to know about.

What we aren't being told is that even if a person does manage to roll an 85 or higher, they are still not guaranteed loot because there is a set number of people who can win loot per boss. Let's say 10 people roll higher than 85 but only 3-4 people can win loot. The system will then continue to roll until the winners have been reduced to the preset 3-4. The other 6-7 people will lose out.

Once the 3-4 winners have been chosen, there most likely is another roll to determine which item from that boss's loot table will be awarded. Let's say a boss has 3 items on his loot table: a belt, a gun and a trinket. What we aren't being told is that these items do NOT have an equal chance of being awarded. The belt may have an 85% chance to drop, the trinket a 10% chance and the gun a 5% chance. This is NOT random and certainly explains why people continue to receive the higher drop rate item (the belt) over and over and over again.

So there you have it. I would love for a developer to tell me I am wrong but I honestly don't think I am.
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90 Orc Shaman
13750
What we aren't being told is that even if a person does manage to roll an 85 or higher, they are still not guaranteed loot because there is a set number of people who can win loot per boss. Let's say 10 people roll higher than 85 but only 3-4 people can win loot. The system will then continue to roll until the winners have been reduced to the preset 3-4. The other 6-7 people will lose out.


Gonna have to quote that one for me to believe you. The last quote I remember reading is that everyone or no one can win.

Once the 3-4 winners have been chosen, there most likely is another roll to determine which item from that boss's loot table will be awarded. Let's say a boss has 3 items on his loot table: a belt, a gun and a trinket. What we aren't being told is that these items do NOT have an equal chance of being awarded. The belt may have an 85% chance to drop, the trinket a 10% chance and the gun a 5% chance. This is NOT random and certainly explains why people continue to receive the higher drop rate item (the belt) over and over and over again.


There was a Hunter recently who complained he'd received 5 Terrors (the trinket) off Lei Shi recently, but nothing else.

If what you say is true, he should have been receiving belts instead.
Edited by Hyjinx on 1/18/2013 3:33 PM PST
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90 Undead Rogue
11935
Haha, fail bag. i love it. I win so much with the coin roll it's not even funny. But yah, when i lose it's a fail bag.
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90 Draenei Shaman
13805
The odds of not getting loot 32 times is 0.85^32, which is about 0.005. Or a half a percent. One of every 200. So if there are 6 million people running LFR, there are 30,000 other players with the same luck as you.
No it's not. It's:

33!/2!(31)! * 0.85^2 * (0.15)^31 +
33!/3!(30)! * 0.85^3 * (0.15)^30 +
... +
33!/31!(2!) * 0.85^31 * (0.15)^2 +
33!/32! * 0.85^32 * 0.15 +
0.85^33

and that works out to about 3.2%

I don't know how many times I have to ask you to read up on cumulative distributions before you quit posting incorrect probability formulas.
Edited by Ronduwil on 1/18/2013 3:41 PM PST
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90 Draenei Shaman
13805
01/18/2013 03:34 PMPosted by Neckface
I've been reading all of your posts in this thread and, with all due respect, sometimes you might want to ask yourself, "What am I not understanding?" instead of always "How can I educate this inferior intellect?"
Look, if you start a thread with the intention of mathematically proving that Blizzard's loot system is worse then the old one you owe it to Blizzard and the other players to get your math right. I made some bad statements, but I freely acknowledged my mistakes and corrected my posts. My intent is not to attack you, but I don't think it's right to spread misinformation. There's enough QQ as it is without people claiming that they're "mathematically justified" in their complaints. Such a claim, by the way, is what prompted me to post in this topic in the first place.
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90 Draenei Shaman
13805
01/18/2013 03:34 PMPosted by Neckface
Or maybe they do understand and what they're saying is "I wish there was a mechanic where I could pass and my loot would be assigned to somebody else."

And Ghostcrawler already explained at length that this mechanic is not suitable for a random group of 25 people because it leads to hard feelings and is prone to exploitation. That line of reasoning is perfectly valid and my experience in 20 LFRs on this character + >10 on alts is completely in line with that statement. That's what they don't seem to understand.
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90 Human Rogue
12330
I enjoy the coins because I can focus my rolls to bosses I need loot from. I would like to see a repeatable quest where I can turn in 2 peice's of loot that I do not need "aka: repeats" for another golden coin.
I agree with you I do miss the drama of it, I see both sides of the argument here.
As a mogger I miss rolling greed on druid loot and occasionally getting a peice and playing dress up. :P

Winning loot you don't need is worse then the gold bag..its not winning at all. You begin to feel bad selling it, knowing there are people who have been hunting for that item for weeks.

There will probably never be a perfect solution, cause its impossible to make everyone happy. But I am sure this solution doesn't feel right. Its like once haveing capitalizm and being forced to switch to socializim cause too many people where being greedy jerks.
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90 Blood Elf Paladin
14115
The current LFR system runs flawlessly. Kudos Blizzard
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90 Tauren Druid
7945
Yeah it runs flawlessly... unless you're one of the hundred thousands people who can't get loot for months on end.

I get it though, long as the people getting screwed are an acceptable minority Blizz really doesnt give a !@#$.
Edited by Bronxe on 1/18/2013 3:57 PM PST
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90 Draenei Shaman
13805
What we aren't being told is that even if a person does manage to roll an 85 or higher, they are still not guaranteed loot because there is a set number of people who can win loot per boss. Let's say 10 people roll higher than 85 but only 3-4 people can win loot. The system will then continue to roll until the winners have been reduced to the preset 3-4. The other 6-7 people will lose out.

This statement is absolutely incorrect. Ghostcrawler explicitly said:
The game doesn't care what any individual player rolled, so once under a blue moon it might be possible for all 25 to get loot. (The actual chance might not be 5%, but you get the idea.)

The post was on the beta forum so it's been deleted, but it is archived at mmo-champion right here:
http://blue.mmo-champion.com/topic/228799-the-new-lfr-roll-system-sucks/
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92 Blood Elf Warlock
14820
Yeah it runs flawlessly... unless you're one of the hundred thousands people who can't get loot for months on end.

I get it though, long as the people getting screwed are an acceptable minority Blizz really doesnt give a !@#$.


Boy you're so angry about loot you're going to replace next expac anyways.

Funny that you think everyone that doesn't get loot from raids get angry. I've gone months without raid loot, and am perfectly fine with it.

Because loot is always replaced.
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