Analysis of LFR Loot System

90 Human Mage
13555
01/16/2013 03:57 PMPosted by Tacobeef
All Blizzard needs to do is just show the rolls and prove that it's a fair system.
Why do they need to prove it's a fair system? Why wouldn't it be a fair system to begin with?
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1 Pandaren Shaman
0
01/16/2013 11:10 AMPosted by Terrawatt
The happy simple person, or the unhappy complex person?


This argument would cause the wow forums to crash, there are better places for such a thing to happen .. here is not one of them.

Would make an awesome question for Askreddit tho.


And yet you are the one who brought it all up! careful you don't fall off your pedestal oh complex wonder of the world!
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90 Worgen Mage
9800
lols we all know the old system was more oriented to:
give multiple players what they was looking for in lfr in a not too difficult way.

and the new system is more like:
play and play lfr , and good luck getting item you want. in way we keep you bussy...

no big secret about that
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90 Human Paladin
9735
I have news for you this is a game, its not a job. What i shouldn't have to do as a casual gamers is sit here for weeks on end getting little to nothing. You cant even get Tier X from Valor you literally have to get lucky and that is a terrible system (whoever came up with it needs to be fired simply straight away). Random Loot is NEVER good. Ever wonder why WOTLK was your most popular expansion?

I felt like when i causally raided in WOTLK like it was never meaningless as i could still get my TeirX gear and still feel like I'm progressing.

Now you have this AWESOME tool for PUG raiding, and it really is good, in fact i would say its fantastic, but i feel like my sense of accomplishment has gone down significantly and i am sorry but getting another loot-able bag with jack in it, isn't more exciting its just more disappointing garbage.

Despite the fact i am casual i am here to gear a toon, even tho its at lower ilvl, that's what i am here to do. But the fact that i can even guarantee that i will get tired drops? Thats terrible.

TBH relying on RNG entirely for set drops is lame, because lets face it they are a huge part of progression and the feel of it as well.
Edited by Fozhammer on 2/8/2013 7:11 AM PST
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90 Orc Shaman
13750
I have news for you this is a game, its not a job. What i shouldn't have to do as a casual gamers is sit here for weeks on end getting little to nothing. You cant even get Tier X from Valor you literally have to get lucky and that is a terrible system (whoever came up with it needs to be fired simply straight away). Random Loot is NEVER good. Ever wonder why WOTLK was your most popular expansion?


I doubt you can prove you've gone "weeks on end getting little to nothing." You've only run LFR once, and then only MSV.

Be glad. In any other game you wouldn't even have the Valor system.

Despite the fact i am casual i am here to gear a toon, even tho its at lower ilvl, that's what i am here to do. But the fact that i can even guarantee that i will get tired drops? Thats terrible.


Why the reliance on tier gear? if you're casual and just here to gear, then you shouldn't really care whether or not you get tier gear because there are other options.

Your guild name is ironic. Maybe you should listen to it.
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90 Pandaren Monk
0
the thing people are complaining about is the amount of gold for the effert of beating a boss
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90 Gnome Priest
3085
I'm sick of getting loot that i already have like some boots but not getting a off hand that i do need FROM THE SAME BOSS!!!
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90 Pandaren Monk
12315
Here is the take on it from my point of view and correct if im wrong but i believe this would fix many problems .... ive been raiding lfr since i could due to ilvl and cant raid all of them due to NEVER getting loot my only joy in gaming is hardcore raiding but you cant even get into a normal raid that drops ilvl476 without being full ilvl496 unless u lfr (i understand people is the issue there ) and when u lfr u do it for weeks months and get nothing but there are people in same raids that get one or two pieces ( based on extra roll ) off every boss that clearly says this loot system is not fair but to be honest this system is so easy to fix its not even funny ... take the loot lockout away if you only get gold ... would it still be frustrating to get nothing yes but it would allow you to try again in same week instead of having to wait till next week and then possibly months to get gear the line about lfr is not for gearing is absolute nonsense to make u have to use valor to gear alone and then to put a cap on it like for me of 1000 which is absolutely retarded i mean how long does blizz expect it to take someone to get geared enough just to be able to get in a decent guild and be able to raid cause on my server below ilvl 496 and they dont even bother with ya .... the not being able to get geared so i can raid is a huge issue game ending for me ... just remove lockout for only gold drop will people still complain yes people ALWAYS find something to complain about but it will fix the not getting loot issue gives the people who truly care about getting gear the chance to que and get it since they didnt the first time around .... it keeps lfr ques popping too as people will que more often to get gear since they have a chance to get it the second or even god forbid 10th time if u are as unlucky as me but it keeps me from and everyone else from having to wait 10 weeks or more to get any
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- Technical Support
90 Human Mage
13340
My initial reaction to the new loot system is that it's a great solution. I wanted to punch a kitten every time somebody abused the old system.

But after a couple months I find myself even more frustrated than last expansion. I have two analyses of why that might be true, one statistical and one psychological.

MATH

(If anybody finds any mistakes, please correct. Edited since original post to reflect corrections, and to explain more clearly.)

I used the following assumptions:

Number of items per RF boss: 13.7
(I averaged size of RF loot table for all HoF and ToES bosses)

Number of useful items per class: 3
(I did NOT average this across all classes/bosses. I was lazy and just grabbed the number that seems to show up in Dungeon Journal)

Number of classes with which you share gear: 2.125
(This one is complicated and I welcome a more sophisticated analysis. I made a matrix of the four armor types against the three roles, healing, tank and dps, then averaged all the entries in the matrix and applied it against a 25 person raid. This ignores spec/role; e.g. it assumes that a feral druid will roll on spirit leather. Also note this is just an average: an agility trinket sees more competition than healing plate.)

Average number of items you can use per boss killed, old system: 0.87
(3 / 13.7 * 4. I.e. odds of an item being usable by you, times 4 items per boss)

Then I computed the likelihood of you actually getting an item per boss killed, based on how many of the possible items you already owned. For the new system it's a straight 15%. For the old system it's the likelihood of an item dropping that you can use, then the likelihood of you winning the roll against the statistical average competition, so 0.87 * (1 / number of people rolling).

Results*:
Average loot per 100 bosses, old system: 15.9
Average loot per 100 bosses, new system: 15

*EDIT: I had this mislabeled before as a percentage "chance of getting loot per boss". Because under the old system bosses could drop multiple useful items, the actual point % for any given boss was a bit lower, but since you could win multiple items the average comes back up.

So this shows a slightly higher rate of loot acquisition under the old system, but pretty close. (And, again, my assumption about the amount of competition you have is probably off.)

But what this analysis DOES not factor in is people passing or trading gear. Although the old system was famous for people rolling Need for off-spec, to trade, or just to be a jerk, the fact is that lots of people DID pass on loot they didn't need, and as the season progressed and people got bettered geared, there were more people like that. That factor dramatically affected loot rates for everybody.

Again, I welcome corrections to this analysis. Post in this thread if you have better numbers and I will update the model.

PSYCHOLOGICAL

The other thing I've been thinking about is how the new system feels.

I got mad at a blue poster (GC?) a month or so ago because somebody posted that he wants to see who wins what because he misses the "drama" of loot. GC interpreted this as "loot drama" and thus the change was good, but I believe the poster meant the more positive definition of drama, i.e. "dramatic". And I have to agree....there's an exciting denouement when the loot drops and everybody rolls and you hold your breath and you think "Oh drek! I JUST MISSED winning that item."

In the new system you don't even see your roll. You just suddenly get a message on the screen telling you what you won. So you spend less time being excited/wondering, and you have no information with which to tell yourself you "just missed it".

Elder Coins make it even worse. I've noticed that I feel significantly more cheated when my coin fails than when I get a bag of gold for normal loot. This is totally illogical, because the coin does in fact give me an increased chance of winning loot (as opposed to not have a coin, that is.)

But coins are supposed to feel like a bonus chance, so it feels like a bigger letdown when they fail.

SUGGESTIONS

1) Show the loot everybody wins, and show people their own rolls. Both pieces of information will make it "feel" like a closer thing.

2) Give every player a hidden variable of their chance of getting loot, and for each failed roll increase that variable by a small amount. Say, 2%. If you go an entire week of full LFR with no loot, your next roll would get a +32% roll.

EDIT:

Some additional suggestions that have shown up in this thread:

3) Increase drop rates for faster kills.

4) Allow people to "pass" on their loot, giving another (random, eligible) player the chance to take it or pass, and so on. This needs some incentive to pass instead of vendoring, such as "karma" points that increase your chances on the next boss or bosses.

5) Show players their own number rolled.

6) Don't make the roll instantaneous; give the player the sense (even if illusory) that they are "doing something" when making their roll.

7) Give better consolation prizes than just gold. Chance for pets or mounts, valor points, reputation points, gems, flasks, etc.


Statistics fail.
The normalized drop rate in the old LFR system was less the 12 percent. Your calculations fail to take in account almost half the raid can roll on the accessories (rings,necks,weapons) . That 4 classes roll on the tier tokens so 8 people will be rolling on the same tier token. So you have a 1/8 chance to get a token, a 1/12 chance to get a ring,neck,. Healer trinkets are 1/6, caster DPS trinkets are 1/8, etc. All in all if you get a bad combination your drop rate could be as low as 2 percent. I have seen runs were there were 12 of the same type of gear IE plate,cloth etc

And in 5.3 LFR there adding a failed roll increase. looks like every roll you fail your chance for gear increases 5 percent. which basicly guarentees one piece of gear per full run. If you do all the bosses in LFR under the new system in 5.3 you would have a 75 percent chance to get loot by the end. better then Normal raiding
Edited by Northernlite on 3/31/2013 7:38 PM PDT
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10 Blood Elf Paladin
10
i do normal raiding, but LFR bags are still pretty much "fail bags".

there is little to no incentive to do LFR on alts, given the chance of getting something unique in the fail bag seems to be incredibly low. almost like blingtron.
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90 Undead Death Knight
7905
At first this new LFR looting system was a solution. I was wrong after playing for a couple months now I have earned gold for killing bosses. I can earn gold from dailies, mindless tasks that do not require button mashing. In raids I rather win loot or nothing at all. This way, after a 10 minute fight that took two attempts that the group worked hard to overcome, you are either rewarded with a great upgrade or pity gold from the game. They basically are giving gold out for trying your best and not giving up. Me looking at this, i despise it! I don't want to feel like the I got a reward for 2nd place. I rather lose out on loot and try again next week and being felt sorry for.
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90 Night Elf Death Knight
7995
Oh and for Northernlite, quoting numbers is fine. Usually helpful. But we're their customers. We're the people who make the game stay alive while other MMOs are coming in droves. So your "statistics" don't change that from a first person point of view, the LFR loot system is broken and needs to be fixed.
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90 Worgen Warlock
9075
As someone who tried for No'K for a while on my baby rogue and finally seeing it drop just to be ninjad by shammy holding 2 normal ones, I do see a big step up with this xpac's lfr looting system. As unlucky as I was in the first patches, ToT and now SoO seem to drop stuff pretty frequently.
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90 Undead Warlock
12265
Actually no It pisses me off more losing loot to someone that rolled need to just vendor it.
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