Analysis of LFR Loot System

90 Draenei Shaman
13805
Therefore, chance of winning at least one useful item per boss, not counting items you already own, is:
U / L * I / C
And this is wrong. You can't multiply an average number of items by a probability to come up with a probability. That's exactly what I've been trying to get at. You have to multiply the probability that a useful item will drop by the probability that you'll win the roll. Assuming 5 drops that probability comes out to 0.7, as I showed earlier. I've already shown the proper calculations in my edited post above. Let's change them to correct for the discrepancy between the number of Cata classes and the number of current classes and then do another modified calculation to account for other factors.

(3.125 / 10) * 25 = 7.8125 players (don't know where 5 came from), giving you a 1/7.8125 or a 0.128 chance of winning a given roll.

Multiply by the 70% chance of a useful item dropping that we got earlier and you get a 9% drop chance.

But let's assume that 3/4 of those players are geared but one of those will troll (which closely mirrors the state at the end of Cata). That 7.8125 * 0.25 + 1 = 2.95 players who will actually roll on gear. That ups your chances of winning to about 34%. Multiply that by the 70% we calculated earlier and you get 23.7%, which is closer to what you report. That may be what we were seeing at the end of Cataclysm, but it was only because most of the population was already geared, not because the loot drop rate was higher. When LFR first dropped in Cataclysm the effective drop rate was even lower than it is now.
Edited by Ronduwil on 1/17/2013 3:14 PM PST
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90 Draenei Shaman
13805
Your 70% chance is the chance that at least one item will drop, but it could be more. And you have an additional chance to win each of those additional items, increasing the overall chance that you win at least one item.
No. It was a 41% chance that only one item will drop:
The correct formula to use in this case is a binomial probability formula:
n!/(x!( n-x)!) * p^x * (1-p)^(n-x)
where n = 5 items, p = 3/13.7 chance of an item you can use dropping, and x = 1 item (exactly) dropping

Plugging the values in we get:
5! / 1!(5-1)! * (3/13.7)^1 * (1-3/13.7)^(5-1) =
5 * (0.22) * (- 0.78 ^ 4) =
5 * 0.22 * 0.37 =
0.41, or a 41% chance that a single useful item will drop for you on a given boss

The 70% number is summing the probabilities for 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 items dropping. Your current method counts the chances of multiples dropping multiple times. My method only counts those cases one time. You calculated the average number of items that drop, but as you pointed out that's not the same as the probability that one or more items will drop.
Edited by Ronduwil on 1/17/2013 3:44 PM PST
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90 Draenei Shaman
13805
01/17/2013 03:30 PMPosted by Neckface
Again, the 2.125 is not "other classes" it's "total classes, including yours

2.125 / 10 * 25 = 5.3
1/5.3 * 0.7 = 13.18% -- still slightly under 15%.
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90 Draenei Shaman
13805
So chance of one item dropping and winning it? 0.41 * 0.18 = 0.07
No. You never read the edited version of the post with the correct calculations, did you? Here they are again:

Plugging the values in we get:
5! / 1!(5-1)! * (3/13.7)^1 * (1-3/13.7)^(5-1) =
5 * (0.22) * (- 0.78 ^ 4) =
5 * 0.22 * 0.37 =
0.41, or a 41% chance that a single useful item will drop for you on a given boss. That's much lower than the 109% you were using in your calculation, but it doesn't tell the full story yet because there is also a probability that it will drop 2 useful items, 3 useful items, 4 useful items, and 5 useful items. That means you have to also apply:

n!/(x!( n-x)!) * p^x * (1-p)^(n-x)
where n = 5, p = 1/13.7, and x = 2 for two items and so on.

After doing this we get these probabilities:
1 usable item - 41%
2 usable items - 23%
3 usable items - 6.4%
4 usable items - < 0.5%
5 usable items - < 0.5%

Summing these you get a 70% chance of at least one useful drop on a single boss under the old system.
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90 Orc Shaman
13750
If I'm remembering right, the old LFR system only dropped 4 items per boss. Why are you listing 5 usable items as a possibility?
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90 Orc Hunter
7835
01/18/2013 09:55 AMPosted by Hyjinx
If I'm remembering right, the old LFR system only dropped 4 items per boss. Why are you listing 5 usable items as a possibility?
not only that, you have no idea who would or would not roll on the items IF they did drop - you can't calculate that since you dont know - all you can do is speculate your chances based on IF x amount of players rolled, which varied each and every run - the only players that geared up at a consistent rate were those that tanked, which meant players that DPSed and healed were left HOPING for someone to tank so they could continue to gear up as well...
Edited by Zaxan on 1/18/2013 9:59 AM PST
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7 Troll Hunter
0
01/16/2013 10:15 AMPosted by Neckface
I'm not sure what's more disheartening: Blizzard's refusal to admit structural design flaws ("No you're wrong; you ARE having fun!") at least not before they change them in the next x-pac, or the community's willingness to gripe but lack of interest in validating those gripes.
the current system is a direct result of people being unhappy with the old system.

To those who say that the old system was better, I give you the same answer given to everyone who says they liked vanilla or BC better than current content: Rose tinted goggles.
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90 Blood Elf Paladin
11750
I'm not about to get into the weeds with the math, mainly because I think almost all of it is based on a tremendous number of assumptions and isn't going to be accurate. Only Blizzard has the real numbers. They're all internal and Blizz has stated that they're not going to release them.

That said, there are a couple of issues that can be addressed and constructively so. Most of us have raided at some point during our WoW time, so the "casual" vs "hardcore" argument is meaningless. We know what it's like to wait for gear. We've been in guilds with various loot systems. We understand that if you're killing bosses, the gear you want doesn't always drop, so let's save the hyperbole and dismissive troll responses. They're not productive.

What we also know is that with Master Looted systems, guilds didn't "waste" gear. If the gear dropped, someone who could use it would pick it up until everyone had what they needed, then it was sharded and used for enchants. We also know that guilds had ways of keeping track of attendance on raids so if X boss never dropped leather for 8 weeks and on week 9 he finally did, there would be a list of people who had come to the previous 8 weeks of kills and were in line to get the item when it did drop.

In short, two factors:
-The ability to pass gear from those who didn't need it to those who did
-A memory system that increased your chance at loot over time to compensate for bad luck

These two factors are not present in LFR loot distribution. The result is a net loss of total useful drops over time vs normal Master Looted raid loot distribution. This is where the frustration lies.

Edit: typos
Edited by Allumei on 1/18/2013 11:56 AM PST
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90 Orc Hunter
7835
-The ability to pass gear from those who didn't need it to those who did
-A memory system that increased your chance at loot over time to compensate for bad luck

These two factors are not present in LFR loot distribution.
because the two loot systems are completely different

the previous one was a group looting system - all loot was for the group and therefore could be PASSED to the group

the current one is a personal looting system - all loot is for the individual and therefore stays with the individual
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90 Blood Elf Paladin
11750
I had one more thought that I think is relevant. Gearing over time is important. When I go into LFR in full blues, each potential drop is an upgrade from what I have. I do indeed have a 15% (or whatever the number is) chance of loot from each boss. As I gear up and start filling those slots, as I have on my main, the situation changes. If I have 16/18 slots filled with 476 or better, I only can benefit from a maximum of 2 very specific drops, period. Any other loot that drops from the loot table is wasted, meaningless, and worth less than the 28g50 slap-in-the-face bag. My chance of getting an upgrade is no longer 15%, but much lower.

As I stated in my previous post, a memory system inherent in Master Looted systems would offset this. My lack of need on the majority of items would increase the relative chance of others in the raid getting loot, and when loot I did need dropped, I would be given priority on it having passed on so many other things. In short, the system helped me finish gearing by inflating my chances to offset what essentially was "bad luck." LFR does the opposite by insisting on the same 15% rate multiplied by fewer and fewer items actually needed, my probability of getting an upgrade approaches 0 rather than 1. Not a good solution.
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90 Orc Hunter
7835
I had one more thought that I think is relevant. Gearing over time is important. When I go into LFR in full blues, each potential drop is an upgrade from what I have. I do indeed have a 15% (or whatever the number is) chance of loot from each boss. As I gear up and start filling those slots, as I have on my main, the situation changes. If I have 16/18 slots filled with 476 or better, I only can benefit from a maximum of 2 very specific drops, period. Any other loot that drops from the loot table is wasted, meaningless, and worth less than the 28g50 slap-in-the-face bag. My chance of getting an upgrade is no longer 15%, but much lower.

As I stated in my previous post, a memory system inherent in Master Looted systems would offset this. My lack of need on the majority of items would increase the relative chance of others in the raid getting loot, and when loot I did need dropped, I would be given priority on it having passed on so many other things. In short, the system helped me finish gearing by inflating my chances to offset what essentially was "bad luck." LFR does the opposite by insisting on the same 15% rate multiplied by fewer and fewer items actually needed, my probability of getting an upgrade approaches 0 rather than 1. Not a good solution.
Raiding is about progression.

Players raid Normal raids in order to progress to Heroic raids.

If you are JUST raiding LFR, youre at the end of your progression and have no need for the gear other then "its cool".

So, why should drop rates be increased when you have no progression use for the gear atm?

All that would do is ensure you stop playing the content that much faster.

Once Patch 5.2 hits, progression will begin again, and drop rates in 5.0 raids will be increased so players will be able to continue to progress to 5.2 raids at a reasonable rate.

But, rest assured, patch 5.2 raids will not have an increased drop rate, since that is the end, yet again, of progression, and gearing up quickly at the end of progression would only serve to ensure you stop playing the content quickly.
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90 Blood Elf Paladin
11750
because the two loot systems are completely different

the previous one was a group looting system - all loot was for the group and therefore could be PASSED to the group

the current one is a personal looting system - all loot is for the individual and therefore stays with the individual

I understand that completely. I'm arguing that because the individual loot system is intended to replace the Master Looted system, it needs to do a better job of approximating how that system worked than it currently does. The idea that loot is individualized does address some of the issues inherent in putting 25 random people together, but brings with it the need to approximate the "fairness" we were used to from years of raiding with various DKP-type systems, whatever their specifics.

While "fairness" is a subjective term in this case, it is the perception of unfairness (I didn't get loot.... AGAIN) that is the source of the problem and why people are so angry about it. I think the LFR system can be adjusted in certain ways to help increase the perception of fairness without ruining the game.
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90 Orc Hunter
7835
01/18/2013 11:06 AMPosted by Allumei
because the individual loot system is intended to replace the Master Looted system, it needs to do a better job of approximating how that system worked
why would an individual loot system need to work just like a group loot system? might as well keep the group loot system and save yourself the work lol
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90 Blood Elf Death Knight
13895
not sure about the OPs math, but regardless i agree the new system just feels worse.

i think there are a number of structural flaws but setting that aside, looking at just the part where awarded loot is not even announced really rubs me the wrong way.

lfr is the only place this occurs, and since the ability to trade gear was removed there's really no reason to hide this information. this may have something to do with how the individual rolling system was implemented, but regardless this should be changed.

there is a certain feeling of satisfaction seeing a boss drop those epics whether you get them or not, and seeing items you really want drop is more effective than looking it up in the dungeon journal week to week. just seeing a bag of gold after a kill puts the whole looting experience on the same level as killing trash. at least with the trash drops we can still roll on them.
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90 Orc Hunter
7835
01/18/2013 11:11 AMPosted by Lehane
awarded loot is not even announced
um, all loot that you are awarded is announced to you...
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90 Blood Elf Death Knight
13895
01/18/2013 11:13 AMPosted by Zaxan
awarded loot is not even announced
um, all loot that you are awarded is announced to you...


IF something is awarded to me. the rest of the time as far as i am aware of the bosses drop nothing.
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90 Blood Elf Paladin
11750
Raiding is about progression.

Players raid Normal raids in order to progress to Heroic raids.

If you are JUST raiding LFR, youre at the end of your progression and have no need for the gear other then "its cool".

So, why should drop rates be increased when you have no progression use for the gear atm?

The established top end is irrelevant. Whether the situation is that I only raid LFR and LFR ToES is my top end, or Heroics are my top end, the concept is the same. If I've geared in normals and heroics 489+, LFR is absolutely and completely useless, much the same as heroics are useless for the LFR 476+ capped player. As I approach the cap, I need not be artificially penalized merely as a carrot on a stick to keep me playing as the current system does. I certainly don't agree with the logic that if I'm not in a progression raid guild that I ought to have less chance of getting loot simply because "I don't need it for another tier of progression". That's an elitist idea, imo, and I don't agree with it.

This argument is also based on the assumption that I only raid for loot. While that may be a motivator, even a primary one, it is not always the case. I enjoy raiding. I raid with my friends. I enjoy helping others gear up. I enjoy the challenge of trying to play my class better. And I have alts. If my main is geared fully to whatever my cap happens to be, I might get on and play my alt. I have 4 90s. No content is wasted. I still have incentive to play. Blizzard has lost nothing on this deal.
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90 Orc Hunter
7835
01/18/2013 11:16 AMPosted by Lehane
um, all loot that you are awarded is announced to you...


IF something is awarded to me. the rest of the time as far as i am aware of the bosses drop nothing.
haha, ok, so you rather believe blizzard is a liar? go for it, believe what you want, i prefer to believe blizzard
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