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That is just extremely bad luck. I'll tell you how many items people can typically expect to win after 5 weeks of LFR (i.e. 80 boss kills) in a bit.
The old loot system was a completely different beast. There was choice. You chose to either want the loot or pass. You then had the choice of trading that item, or being asked to trade the item to someone else. Come on, you can't see the difference between the loot drama these choices make? With the new system where all choices are elminated, there is no way other people's actions could affect my own rewards.
But seeing other people get stuff would make me feel like it wasn't a waste of time. And not have to answer this question anymore?
What, there was no loot?
MATHI do believe your math is flawed. We have a base chance to get an item from any given boss that drops something useful for your spec. I believe the chance is somewhere around 15%. This chance does not change depending on any other drops the boss has (as you will always get something useful for YOU if you win.) This chance, however does not determine if you've already gotten x piece of gear.
Personally I like that. Because some folks would want duplicates to stat differently (instead of reforging a single piece each time they switch specs.) It is annoying at times. But I would rather they didn't change this aspect of the loot table.
I suspect my average for classes with which you share gear (2.125) is low, but what this analysis DOES not factor in is people passing or trading gear. (Although it's frustrating when people roll Need then trade it, the fact is that sometimes you are the beneficiary. I've seen people roll Need then give it to whoever would get the biggest upgrade.)You have to define 'useful'. If you just mean an upgrade you do not already have, then the problem was quite prevalent in the old system as well. I would hear people complaining about how x boss always dropped the same items each and every week. Heck, my DS group saw the same drops from Deathwing for two months strait without any variation. That is just RNG. (Or 'bad luck' you could say.)
PSYCHOLOGICALOr the person actually meant 'drama'. Only this poster knows what they meant but I would have assumed they intended the bickering and arguing over loot rather than the excitement of seeing someone else get loot. (Or, more often than naught, the anger of seeing someone else get loot.) I am glad that I do not see what, if anything, other people get. Primarily because with the new system it is possible (though remote) that no one receives loot or everyone gets a piece of loot.
With all the conspiracy theories floating around about the system right now can you imagine the uproar if the raid knew no one got a piece of loot from the boss? Or if only one person got loot, can you imagine the kind of harassment they might receive? Being accused of hacking or what have you?
I will admit, I am on the fence with this one. I sometimes would like to know 'how close' I was to getting a piece of loot. At other times I am glad I cannot see if I missed the golden number by one or two points.
Elder Coins make it even worse. I've noticed that I feel significantly more cheated when my coin fails than when I get a bag of gold for normal loot. This is totally illogical, because the coin does in fact give me an increased chance of winning loot (as opposed to not have a coin, that is.)I agree to a point. I do not want them to always grant gear, I would rather the chance remain below 50% myself. But just getting some gold feels rather flawed.
1) Please, no on showing the loot someone else wins. The spam would be annoying. The drama it could cause would be no different than the old system (someone getting kicked) because of conspiracy theories and lack of understanding of the system. Showing our own rolls wouldn't be too bad though.
2) This really wouldn't solve much assuming the variable reset after they win something. You increase your chance to get one item per week (roughly) instead of possibly 0. But you still have to contend with:
a) duplicate gear.
b) drops from a boss that you need nothing from (ties in to a technically).
Edited by Conquest on 1/18/2013 2:50 PM PST
I have done lfr every week since mop, all raids,with extra rolls and i still have a 471 gun.Any improvment is welcome.I now dont expect to get a weapon until 5.2 .All my rolls since toes have been on lei shi,4 chances a week .
Edited by Rîv on 1/18/2013 2:55 PM PST
I'm assuming that in your analogy, "studying" is doing LFR week after week, yes?
Well, I've got good news for you. The people studying are getting their grades. I have yet to see a person post who has done every possible LFR they can and used their Valor points effectively that is behind the gearing curve for the next level of content.
The other problem is that your statement - "it's not working out for quite a lot of people" - essentially means "I haven't gotten every !@#$%^- thing I want yet." Another news flash for you - it's perfectly fine if you don't get every *!@#$%^ thing you want over the course of a tier. Happens all the time.
The reason it isn't fun is because people are basing their enjoyment around receiving loot. In my opinion those people will never be happy. Either they get everything they want and then complain about having nothing to do and quit, or they don't and moan about it constantly. That mentality is lose/lose.
I just don't understand the reasoning for this at all, so I hope you could explain this a bit further. If the boss dies and I see random player A get an item, and random player B get an item, how is that going to cause loot drama or create bad feelings? My efforts and the efforts of 22 other people helped these 2 people get loot. Everyone knows the items are not tradeable and there is no choice in the matter. At least killing the boss didn't feel like a waste of time because somebody got something, even if its enchanting shards, it just wasn't me this time.
You can't trade loot, so seeing who got what would lead to more ill feeling because idiots would start inspecting others and then coming to the forums and going "OMG HE DIDN'T NEED THAT WHY DID HE GET IT I NEEDED IT." No thanks. Also, nobody gives a flying <expletive> about whether some guy you don't know and will never see again got loot or not.. unless they can exploit it in some manner (IE, begging). But you can't, so you don't need to see it.
Mists is more alt-friendly than any previous incarnation of WoW except for Cataclysm. What you need to do is get over the idea of having a legion of alts all doing the same thing for little or no time investment. I see no problem with you having a few alts in 5.2 LFR and a few alts back in 5.0 LFR. Also, what exactly is the problem with dropping gold on alts?
While frustrating, it's perfectly acceptable. I'd also like to point out here that, in general, Blizzard dropped on the ball on weapons in t14, so it's less a problem with the system and more a problem with lack of weapons overall.
Odds of winning 1 or more items: 99.9998%
Odds of winning 2 or more items: 99.9965%
Odds of winning 3 or more items: 99.9744%
Odds of winning 4 or more items: 99.8725%
Odds of winning 5 or more items: 99.5263%
Odds of winning 6 or more items: 98.5977%
Odds of winning 7 or more items: 96.5494%
Odds of winning 8 or more items: 92.7283%
Odds of winning 9 or more items: 86.5750%
Odds of winning 10 or more items: 77.8881%
Odds of winning 11 or more items: 67.0039%
Odds of winning 12 or more items: 54.7810%
Odds of winning 13 or more items: 42.3783%
Odds of winning 14 or more items: 30.9297%
Odds of winning 15 or more items: 21.2609%
Odds of winning 16 or more items: 13.7534%
Odds of winning 17 or more items: 8.3711%
Odds of winning 18 or more items: 4.7954%
Odds of winning 19 or more items: 2.5868%
Odds of winning 20 or more items: 1.3150%
Odds of winning 21 or more items: <1%
After 21 items I'm not bothering to post figures because the chances are all really low. So as you can see your experience is very atypical for someone who ran LFR for 5 weeks straight. Only 35 in a million people would be in that situation.
Edited by Ronduwil on 1/18/2013 3:06 PM PST
Just to re-iterate why people quit ...
I have been raiding for 6 years since Wow came out (missed 1 year), I KNOW what loot people get at what stage into the expansions.
This is the first expansion I did not actively raid, the LFR loot since is broken, as in NOT Working, how long has the expansion been out and how many pieces of LFR gear does the average person have.
People who are not actively raiding are gearing with Valor gear only. (usually be the time the actual piece ACTUALLY drops it is far below the Valor piece you already bought)
Below the screenshot I made when I decided to stop my subscription. (That was after 3 weeks of absolutely nothing useful, not counting the weeks before I decided to see how many bags I get before I get a useful piece of gear). Also it does not include the week I quit. (filled the second bag with bags of gold as well)
Amazing how many people with EXTREME bad luck ... right?
Edited by Shavira on 1/18/2013 3:06 PM PST
Feh. You quit before the full version of LFR was even available.
Of course you're gonna get less when there are less bosses available to kill.
According to my calculations, 54.781% of the players who have run LFR all the way through five times will have won 12 or more pieces.
how long has the expansion been out and how many pieces of LFR gear does the average person have.According to my calculations, 54.781% of the players who have run LFR all the way through five times will have won 12 or more pieces.
Does it include the chance of the person not having a Valor gear item piece in that slot already?
In other words number of items bought with valor after 5 weeks? Also aren't there barriers to entering ALL the LFR instances (ilevel?) So by the time they can actually run the LFR instances how much of the loot of the first few raid instances do they still need (and actually run the raids for? I believe the initial raid pieces were ilvl 476?)
Edited by Shavira on 1/18/2013 3:13 PM PST
No, it doesn't include the chance of duplicates or having better gear, but then again neither the old LFR loot system nor the current raid loot system take it into consideration. The boss drops loot without regard to what gear you already had or even the group composition, and that's nothing new. I'd like to remind you of the intent of this system, as explained last year in http://us.battle.net/wow/en/blog/4736886 :
Here is a model I’ve seen some people say they want:
The system isn't broken; it's working just as intended.
A few people have said this. Just make it an option with an on/off option in settings. Solved.It doesn't solve the problem of drama. I personally don't miss calls of "Kick the bad DPS! He didn't deserve to win loot!"
I suspect this is part of the reason the new system feels worse. You used to not roll on gear you didn't need (or roll for the purpose of selling/trading it) so winning such a piece wasn't a let down. Now it's just frustrating to get a piece you don't need.
I agree with you. I suggested an enhancement to the current system that would address that: http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/7592802590?page=7#135
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