Analysis of LFR Loot System

90 Draenei Shaman
13805
01/18/2013 02:27 PMPosted by Azgarde
Let's take the example of my hunter. I've done pretty much every LFR for the last 5 weeks straight. I've won a ring. That's all. How am I supposed to get enough gear to enter the next LFR in 5.2 (which required iLvl is going to be 480) ? By winning 1 piece out of 5 weeks of doing LFRs ?
That is just extremely bad luck. I'll tell you how many items people can typically expect to win after 5 weeks of LFR (i.e. 80 boss kills) in a bit.
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90 Dwarf Paladin
15715
01/18/2013 02:12 PMPosted by Ronduwil
I just don't understand the reasoning for this at all, so I hope you could explain this a bit further. If the boss dies and I see random player A get an item, and random player B get an item, how is that going to cause loot drama or create bad feelings?
You have 20 DS LFR kills and you don't get how this will cause loot drama? Am I the only one who remembers seeing this every raid?
Kick <Player>! They're bottom DPS and didn't deserve to win!

No one can ever be happy for anyone in this game. Yesterday a paladin rolled need on a BoE tank piece and got kicked from the group for it. That's why it's better to not even see who got what.


The old loot system was a completely different beast. There was choice. You chose to either want the loot or pass. You then had the choice of trading that item, or being asked to trade the item to someone else. Come on, you can't see the difference between the loot drama these choices make? With the new system where all choices are elminated, there is no way other people's actions could affect my own rewards.

But seeing other people get stuff would make me feel like it wasn't a waste of time. And not have to answer this question anymore?

What, there was no loot?
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90 Night Elf Monk
9655
MATH

(If anybody finds any mistakes, please correct)
Here are my results (sorry don't know how to make a table without html)
Number of Items you already have: 0 1 2 3
Chance of winning, old system: 21.9% 14.6% 7.3% 0%
Chance of winning, new system: 15% 10% 5% 0%

So in each case you actually had a higher chance of getting an item in the old system
I do believe your math is flawed. We have a base chance to get an item from any given boss that drops something useful for your spec. I believe the chance is somewhere around 15%. This chance does not change depending on any other drops the boss has (as you will always get something useful for YOU if you win.) This chance, however does not determine if you've already gotten x piece of gear.

Personally I like that. Because some folks would want duplicates to stat differently (instead of reforging a single piece each time they switch specs.) It is annoying at times. But I would rather they didn't change this aspect of the loot table.

I suspect my average for classes with which you share gear (2.125) is low, but what this analysis DOES not factor in is people passing or trading gear. (Although it's frustrating when people roll Need then trade it, the fact is that sometimes you are the beneficiary. I've seen people roll Need then give it to whoever would get the biggest upgrade.)

One more difference I haven't modeled, and not sure how to, is that in the old system there was a chance that two useful items would drop, but you would only need one of them. Certainly I saw that happen many times. In the new system the "drop" is rolled first, and the item second. So my intuition is that this actually lowers the chance of getting a _useful_ item.
You have to define 'useful'. If you just mean an upgrade you do not already have, then the problem was quite prevalent in the old system as well. I would hear people complaining about how x boss always dropped the same items each and every week. Heck, my DS group saw the same drops from Deathwing for two months strait without any variation. That is just RNG. (Or 'bad luck' you could say.)

PSYCHOLOGICAL

The other thing I've been thinking about is how the new system feels.

I got mad at a blue poster (GC?) a month or so ago because somebody posted that he wants to see who wins what because he misses the "drama" of loot. GC interpreted this as "loot drama" and thus the change was good, but I believe the poster meant the more positive definition of drama, i.e. "dramatic". And I have to agree....there's an exciting denouement when the loot drops and everybody rolls and you hold your breath and you think "Oh drek! I JUST MISSED winning that item."
Or the person actually meant 'drama'. Only this poster knows what they meant but I would have assumed they intended the bickering and arguing over loot rather than the excitement of seeing someone else get loot. (Or, more often than naught, the anger of seeing someone else get loot.) I am glad that I do not see what, if anything, other people get. Primarily because with the new system it is possible (though remote) that no one receives loot or everyone gets a piece of loot.

With all the conspiracy theories floating around about the system right now can you imagine the uproar if the raid knew no one got a piece of loot from the boss? Or if only one person got loot, can you imagine the kind of harassment they might receive? Being accused of hacking or what have you?

01/16/2013 09:38 AMPosted by Neckface
In the new system you don't even see your roll. You just suddenly get a message on the screen telling you what you won. So you spend less time being excited/wondering, and you have no information with which to tell yourself you "just missed it".
I will admit, I am on the fence with this one. I sometimes would like to know 'how close' I was to getting a piece of loot. At other times I am glad I cannot see if I missed the golden number by one or two points.

Elder Coins make it even worse. I've noticed that I feel significantly more cheated when my coin fails than when I get a bag of gold for normal loot. This is totally illogical, because the coin does in fact give me an increased chance of winning loot (as opposed to not have a coin, that is.)

But coins are supposed to feel like a bonus chance, so it feels like a bigger letdown when they fail.
I agree to a point. I do not want them to always grant gear, I would rather the chance remain below 50% myself. But just getting some gold feels rather flawed.

SUGGESTIONS

1) Show the loot everybody wins, and show people their own rolls. Both pieces of information will make it "feel" like a closer thing.

2) Give every player a hidden variable of their chance of getting loot, and for each failed roll increase that variable by a small amount. Say, 2%. If you go an entire week of full LFR with no loot, your next roll would get a +32% roll.

1) Please, no on showing the loot someone else wins. The spam would be annoying. The drama it could cause would be no different than the old system (someone getting kicked) because of conspiracy theories and lack of understanding of the system. Showing our own rolls wouldn't be too bad though.

2) This really wouldn't solve much assuming the variable reset after they win something. You increase your chance to get one item per week (roughly) instead of possibly 0. But you still have to contend with:
a) duplicate gear.
b) drops from a boss that you need nothing from (ties in to a technically).
Edited by Conquest on 1/18/2013 2:50 PM PST
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I have done lfr every week since mop, all raids,with extra rolls and i still have a 471 gun.Any improvment is welcome.I now dont expect to get a weapon until 5.2 .All my rolls since toes have been on lei shi,4 chances a week .
Edited by Rîv on 1/18/2013 2:55 PM PST
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90 Orc Shaman
13750
01/18/2013 12:39 PMPosted by Tempcharac
What Blizzard needs to do is even out the loot distribution over time, so that you are rewarded at least a little per week.


Valor points.

01/18/2013 01:23 PMPosted by Tempcharac
ok and? if you EXPECT to be rewarded for your effort, yet choose to put your effort into something that does NOT guarantee you WILL be rewarded with what you want, who exactly is the one NOT understanding?


I'm talking about human nature here. You can argue as much as you want about who is being "not understanding", but it doesn't change the facts.

If you study your !@#$ off, you expect that you will score well. If it comes back as a C or D, demoralised is how you will feel.

Demoralised and pissed off is what quite a lot of players are feeling now.

This is not how you do a loot system. There is something wrong with LFR's "reward schedule" - OK, "wrong" might be too strong a word; but it's not working out for quite a lot of people.


I'm assuming that in your analogy, "studying" is doing LFR week after week, yes?

Well, I've got good news for you. The people studying are getting their grades. I have yet to see a person post who has done every possible LFR they can and used their Valor points effectively that is behind the gearing curve for the next level of content.

The other problem is that your statement - "it's not working out for quite a lot of people" - essentially means "I haven't gotten every !@#$%^- thing I want yet." Another news flash for you - it's perfectly fine if you don't get every *!@#$%^ thing you want over the course of a tier. Happens all the time.

01/18/2013 01:28 PMPosted by Tempcharac
Nothing to do with it? It's a game, it's suppose to be fun. When it's not fun for a lot of people, we have a problem - specifically Blizzard has a problem.


The reason it isn't fun is because people are basing their enjoyment around receiving loot. In my opinion those people will never be happy. Either they get everything they want and then complain about having nothing to do and quit, or they don't and moan about it constantly. That mentality is lose/lose.

I just don't understand the reasoning for this at all, so I hope you could explain this a bit further. If the boss dies and I see random player A get an item, and random player B get an item, how is that going to cause loot drama or create bad feelings? My efforts and the efforts of 22 other people helped these 2 people get loot. Everyone knows the items are not tradeable and there is no choice in the matter. At least killing the boss didn't feel like a waste of time because somebody got something, even if its enchanting shards, it just wasn't me this time.


You can't trade loot, so seeing who got what would lead to more ill feeling because idiots would start inspecting others and then coming to the forums and going "OMG HE DIDN'T NEED THAT WHY DID HE GET IT I NEEDED IT." No thanks. Also, nobody gives a flying <expletive> about whether some guy you don't know and will never see again got loot or not.. unless they can exploit it in some manner (IE, begging). But you can't, so you don't need to see it.



[quote] We're not looking to make LFR drops guaranteed, that kind of reliable gearing is what Justice and Valor are for not boss fights, but certainly the opposite of guaranteed can be just as bad. It's something we're looking at and talking about internally, we just don't have anything specific to share right yet.



Ok, I'm fine with it. However, I'm an altoholic. I like to gear up my alts. Right now, there is just no way I can gear a toon using only LFR (and obviously, there is no way I'm going to do dailies on 6 or 7 toons...)

Let's take the example of my hunter. I've done pretty much every LFR for the last 5 weeks straight. I've won a ring. That's all. How am I supposed to get enough gear to enter the next LFR in 5.2 (which required iLvl is going to be 480) ? By winning 1 piece out of 5 weeks of doing LFRs ?

The only way to really be able to gear myself up, would be either spending 40-50k gold to buy 496 gear, doing dailies (what if I don't want to ? What if I don't like dailies ?)

Honestly, this expansion is really great...besides the fact that this is really not alt-friendly. This is a huge letdown for people like me.


Mists is more alt-friendly than any previous incarnation of WoW except for Cataclysm. What you need to do is get over the idea of having a legion of alts all doing the same thing for little or no time investment. I see no problem with you having a few alts in 5.2 LFR and a few alts back in 5.0 LFR. Also, what exactly is the problem with dropping gold on alts?

01/18/2013 02:49 PMPosted by Rîv
I have done lfr every week since mop, all raids,with extra rolls and i still have a 471 gun.Any improvment is welcome.I now dont expect to get a weapon until 5.2 .


While frustrating, it's perfectly acceptable. I'd also like to point out here that, in general, Blizzard dropped on the ball on weapons in t14, so it's less a problem with the system and more a problem with lack of weapons overall.
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90 Draenei Shaman
13805
Let's take the example of my hunter. I've done pretty much every LFR for the last 5 weeks straight. I've won a ring. That's all. How am I supposed to get enough gear to enter the next LFR in 5.2 (which required iLvl is going to be 480) ? By winning 1 piece out of 5 weeks of doing LFRs ?
That is just extremely bad luck. I'll tell you how many items people can typically expect to win after 5 weeks of LFR (i.e. 80 boss kills) in a bit.
So after running the numbers through a javascript program I wrote this is a summary of how much loot to expect after 80 boss kills (assuming no elder coins):

Odds of winning 1 or more items: 99.9998%
Odds of winning 2 or more items: 99.9965%
Odds of winning 3 or more items: 99.9744%
Odds of winning 4 or more items: 99.8725%
Odds of winning 5 or more items: 99.5263%
Odds of winning 6 or more items: 98.5977%
Odds of winning 7 or more items: 96.5494%
Odds of winning 8 or more items: 92.7283%
Odds of winning 9 or more items: 86.5750%
Odds of winning 10 or more items: 77.8881%
Odds of winning 11 or more items: 67.0039%
Odds of winning 12 or more items: 54.7810%
Odds of winning 13 or more items: 42.3783%
Odds of winning 14 or more items: 30.9297%
Odds of winning 15 or more items: 21.2609%
Odds of winning 16 or more items: 13.7534%
Odds of winning 17 or more items: 8.3711%
Odds of winning 18 or more items: 4.7954%
Odds of winning 19 or more items: 2.5868%
Odds of winning 20 or more items: 1.3150%
Odds of winning 21 or more items: <1%

After 21 items I'm not bothering to post figures because the chances are all really low. So as you can see your experience is very atypical for someone who ran LFR for 5 weeks straight. Only 35 in a million people would be in that situation.
Edited by Ronduwil on 1/18/2013 3:06 PM PST
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90 Pandaren Shaman
10075
Just to re-iterate why people quit ...

I have been raiding for 6 years since Wow came out (missed 1 year), I KNOW what loot people get at what stage into the expansions.

This is the first expansion I did not actively raid, the LFR loot since is broken, as in NOT Working, how long has the expansion been out and how many pieces of LFR gear does the average person have.

People who are not actively raiding are gearing with Valor gear only. (usually be the time the actual piece ACTUALLY drops it is far below the Valor piece you already bought)

Below the screenshot I made when I decided to stop my subscription. (That was after 3 weeks of absolutely nothing useful, not counting the weeks before I decided to see how many bags I get before I get a useful piece of gear). Also it does not include the week I quit. (filled the second bag with bags of gold as well)

Amazing how many people with EXTREME bad luck ... right?

http://imageshack.us/a/img560/4316/wowscrnshot111412192909.jpg
Edited by Shavira on 1/18/2013 3:06 PM PST
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90 Orc Shaman
13750
01/18/2013 03:00 PMPosted by Shavira
Below the screenshot I made when I decided to stop my subscription. (That was after 3 weeks of absolutely nothing useful, not counting the weeks before I decided to see how many bags I get before I get a useful piece of gear)


Feh. You quit before the full version of LFR was even available.

Of course you're gonna get less when there are less bosses available to kill.
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90 Draenei Shaman
13805
01/18/2013 03:00 PMPosted by Shavira
how long has the expansion been out and how many pieces of LFR gear does the average person have.
According to my calculations, 54.781% of the players who have run LFR all the way through five times will have won 12 or more pieces.
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90 Pandaren Shaman
10075
how long has the expansion been out and how many pieces of LFR gear does the average person have.
According to my calculations, 54.781% of the players who have run LFR all the way through five times will have won 12 or more pieces.


Does it include the chance of the person not having a Valor gear item piece in that slot already?

In other words number of items bought with valor after 5 weeks? Also aren't there barriers to entering ALL the LFR instances (ilevel?) So by the time they can actually run the LFR instances how much of the loot of the first few raid instances do they still need (and actually run the raids for? I believe the initial raid pieces were ilvl 476?)
Edited by Shavira on 1/18/2013 3:13 PM PST
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90 Draenei Shaman
13805
01/18/2013 03:07 PMPosted by Shavira
Does it include the chance of the person not having a Valor gear item piece in that slot already?
No, it doesn't include the chance of duplicates or having better gear, but then again neither the old LFR loot system nor the current raid loot system take it into consideration. The boss drops loot without regard to what gear you already had or even the group composition, and that's nothing new. I'd like to remind you of the intent of this system, as explained last year in http://us.battle.net/wow/en/blog/4736886 :
Here is a model I’ve seen some people say they want:
  • The boss dies.
  • I get the exact item or items I want.
  • I never have to come back and kill this boss again.
  • I politely ask Blizzard when there will be new content for me to run.

I added that, somewhat tongue in cheek, to point out that the intent of the new system is not to make killing bosses or getting loot more efficient, or to let you choose buffet-style which items you get. We like random loot being random


The system isn't broken; it's working just as intended.
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90 Draenei Shaman
13805
A few people have said this. Just make it an option with an on/off option in settings. Solved.
It doesn't solve the problem of drama. I personally don't miss calls of "Kick the bad DPS! He didn't deserve to win loot!"
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90 Tauren Druid
7945
33 LFR bosses down, 1 piece of loot.

Suck my fat Orc balls Blizz.
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90 Draenei Shaman
13805
I suspect this is part of the reason the new system feels worse. You used to not roll on gear you didn't need (or roll for the purpose of selling/trading it) so winning such a piece wasn't a let down. Now it's just frustrating to get a piece you don't need.

I agree with you. I suggested an enhancement to the current system that would address that: http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/7592802590?page=7#135
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