2h Frost: Mastery vs. Crit - bad napkin math

90 Orc Death Knight
7950
Crit > Mastery? This has been boggling my mind. So yeah, I did some bad napkin math based on this dude's logs: (Veincane - http://worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-brgmbb9jos1vp6m7/details/56/?s=5039&e=5351)

I've also applied it to my own 2h logs, which should mean that it applies at various gear levels. From what I'm (probably incorrectly) calculating, mastery > crit.

Bottom line: it just doesn't SEEM like crit should be valued over mastery. Somebody please look at this at tell me where I'm wrong.

THE MATH:

Basic numbers for Veincane on Feng the Accursed, Jan 10 2013:

Fight length: 5:12
Total damage: 28,936,081
Killing Machine procs: 53
Obliterate crits: 31; avg 220,712 crit
Frost Strike crits: 44; equaling 4,585,225 dmg
Veincane crit chance: 14.35% (4995 rating; 600 crit rating per 1% crit chance)
Frost Mastery: 1% more Frost damage per 1% of mastery (300 rating per 1%)
Total crit damage: 14,167,392
Total Frost damage: 10,832,174

The Rundown:

Originally, I saw that total crit damage was > than total Frost damage, so naturally "Oh, well then I guess a 1% crit increase (which would equate to more than a 1% crit damage increase) will obviously result in more damage than a 1% mastery increase." But then I remembered Killing Maching, which (again - obviously) huuuuuugely devalues crit.

So, if we subtract KM-based (assuming super-heavy on KM FS just to overestimate the value of crit) damage out of the total crit damage** :

14,167,392 (tot crit dmg) - 4,585,225 (tot FS crit dmg) - 662,133 (3 KM * avg OB crit) =
8,919,867 organic crit-based damage

** This assumes that Veincane played terribly (which is probably not the case, considering he's ranking), and we're pretending he "wasted" most of his KM's on Frost strike, AND let 6 KMs be overwritten (upping the value of crit in this scenario), meaning 44 KM Frost Strikes and only 3 KM Obliterates (this would mean that the other 28 OB crits are attributed to his crit chance, upping the value of crit in this scenario)

My Conclusion:

Total damage: still 28,936,081
Total "organic" crit-based damage: 8,919,867 = 31% of total damage
Total frost damage: 10,832,174 = 36% of total damage

Crit damage calc:
31% damage / 14.35% character crit chance = 2.16% damage per 1% crit chance
= 8,919,867 * .0216 = 192,670

Frost damage calc:
10,832,174 * .02 = 216,643

If you give Veincane 600 more mastery rating (2% mastery), he'll do more dps than if you gave him 600 more crit rating (1% crit chance).

PLEASE TELL ME WHAT I'M MISSING?? Seriously though, because I must be wrong, right? And no, I don't care if I did all this work for nothing.
Edited by Shäyy on 1/11/2013 2:01 PM PST
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90 Human Death Knight
16600
Unless I am completely out of the loop, I have NEVER heard of crit being valued over mastery. So where did you hear this?
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90 Orc Death Knight
9155
I'm working on this myself right now, but are you scaling up your frost damage without assuming that you'd have to lose crit to do so?

Some of the damage in your frost damage calc is a direct result of crit rating unless you adjusted for that factor. Similarly mastery effects the damage of your crit damage calc.

I must admit this math is complex, and a little beyond me, the best I could do is run more sims under different stat priorities (problematic because my gear has low amounts of both) but if this is even a question we must assume the sim is wrong.

Unless I am completely out of the loop, I have NEVER heard of crit being valued over mastery. So where did you hear this?


For PvE 2H frost, sims will nearly always return a higher value for crit than mastery by a pretty significant margin.
Edited by Solution on 1/11/2013 1:30 PM PST
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90 Orc Death Knight
8550
You don't have all your numbers, so i couldn't really say for sure, but the general logic is that over half of your damage should be coming from Obliterate when you're 2h frost. Mastery does absolutely nothing for Obliterate, since it is physical damage. So you can devalue Mastery by a factor of 1/2. Killing machine is based on weapon swing and proc %, but if you look at your own numbers you'll see that 2/3 of your crits are from KM and roughly 1/2 of your overall damage comes from crits. Meaning that gaining 1% more mastery is worth roughly a .5% increase in dps while gaining 1% in crit should be worth a .66% increase in dps.

Obviously there is some break point in crit where it is much easier to gain 1% mastery over 1% crit. At this break point Mastery > Crit.
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90 Orc Death Knight
7950
01/11/2013 01:11 PMPosted by Skul
Unless I am completely out of the loop, I have NEVER heard of crit being valued over mastery. So where did you hear this?


Well, straight from elitist jerks, for one, and also from Simulation Craft, and also from all the top ranking players - just check out their reforges.

From elitist jerks (http://elitistjerks.com/f72/t130617-frost_dps_5_0_4_cold_hand_death/):
"Stat Priorities

Two Handed Stat Priority
Strength > Yellow Hit to Cap = Expertise to Cap > Haste > Crit > Mastery

Dual Wield Stat Priority
Strength > Yellow Hit to Cap = Expertise to Cap > Mastery >= Haste > Crit"
Edited by Shäyy on 1/11/2013 1:35 PM PST
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90 Orc Death Knight
7950
... if you look at your own numbers you'll see that 2/3 of your crits are from KM and roughly 1/2 of your overall damage comes from crits.


Sure, half the damage comes from crit. 2/3 of those crits are KM procs. That means that most of the crit chance that's being geared for isn't really that valuable - we're already critting a ton (especially with lots of haste) because of KM.


Obviously there is some break point in crit where it is much easier to gain 1% mastery over 1% crit. At this break point Mastery > Crit.


As far as I can tell, 600 crit rating always = 1% crit, and 300 mastery always equals 1% mastery.
Edited by Shäyy on 1/11/2013 1:39 PM PST
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90 Orc Death Knight
7950
01/11/2013 01:29 PMPosted by Solution
I'm working on this myself right now, but are you scaling up your frost damage without assuming that you'd have to lose crit to do so?


Thought I might get this question - but my scenario doesn't worry about that - it simply states that if you gave the player MORE (on top of) mastery, he'd do more damage than if you gave him the same "MORE" crit. And, from what I can tell, this holds true through a fairly significant range of gear levels.
Edited by Shäyy on 1/11/2013 1:35 PM PST
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90 Orc Death Knight
8550
Sure, half the damage comes from crit. 2/3 of those crits are KM procs. That means that most of the crit chance that's being geared for isn't really that valuable - we're already critting a ton (especially with lots of haste) because of KM.


By the same token if more than half your damage is non-frost than that means most of the mastery that's being geared for isn't really valuable.

Let's say you have a 3.6s swing timer, KM has about a 30% chance to proc on a swing. In the unlikely scenario that you are only timing moves with your swing timer you are starting at a base 30% crit rate. Now pretend you have 15% crit chance on your gear. The odds of KM overwriting that crit are .15 x .3 = .045 or 4.5%; giving you a total crit rate of 40.5%. So you can see here that KM is only devaluing crit by 1/3 for 2h whereas Obliterate is devaluing Mastery by 1/2. The closer you get to GCD capping, the lower that devaluing is going to get. At GCD cap you are very close to a 15% 'bonus' to crit from KM meaning crit is only devalued by 1/6 or so. Haste makes Crit more and more valuable.

This isn't the case for DW frost, because they get better OH numbers from frost strike. Their higher frost strike and howling blast numbers means Mastery is always more valuable than any other stat after strength.
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90 Orc Death Knight
7950
01/11/2013 02:09 PMPosted by Dagosh
By the same token if more than half your damage is non-frost than that means most of the mastery that's being geared for isn't really valuable.

Most of the damage will never come from frost, but part of the reason the frost damage is so low is because mastery isn't yet being geared for, in the current example. Don't get me wrong - mastery and crit are both NOT valuable to 2h Frost. I'm just saying that, from what I see, mastery is slightly more valuable.

01/11/2013 02:09 PMPosted by Dagosh
The closer you get to GCD capping, the lower that devaluing is going to get. At GCD cap you are very close to a 15% 'bonus' to crit from KM meaning crit is only devalued by 1/6 or so. Haste makes Crit more and more valuable.

I fully agree with your last sentence. Haste makes everything more valuable (more rune regen also = more rune ability usage = more RP = more Frost Strikes = mastery is more valuable).

However, I'm pretty sure that, as you get more haste and your KM procs per minute increase and you become closer to GCD capped, you devalue crit even more (for Oblit and Frost Strike) because you have an even higher chance of overriding (what could have been) a regular crit with a KM crit.

EDIT: And on the above note... it seems that - and please correct me if I'm wrong here - the more crit you get, the less valuable it becomes, simply because KM will overwrite a potential "natural" crit even more often (higher likelihood that the two will "intersect").
Edited by Shäyy on 1/11/2013 3:19 PM PST
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90 Orc Death Knight
9155
I just started typing up a math post but somewhere down the rabbit hole my head imploded.

This is unfortunately complicated stuff.

Things that need to be considered:

- Crit suppression due to glancing blows on autoattacks (20%)

- 206% bonus damage from crit meta.

- 227.2% bonus damage from crit meta + skull banner for it's duration.

- Crit suppression due to killing machine (which is a floating point)

- Crit suppression from misses, dodges, blocks, parries. Most of these are a non issue, but certain bosses will force more parries than others.

- I assumed 40% frost damage for a 0.4% damage increase from one percent mastery - but that does assume the damage that you do with the mastery you have, which would change by adding more mastery.

It's difficult and I don't believe it's possible to extrapolate from any one data set. With that in mind I turned again to sims.

-

I understand the redundancy of this, because the scaling option in the sims basically does exactly what I'm doing only in a more effective manner - still, more data! This once again assumes we don't have a problem with the sim.

Doing some testing now with raid buffs. 3000 mastery buff is equivalent to the crit buff, both 3000 rating worth.

First sim gives a profile 3000 more mastery but no crit.

We arrive (after 10k iterations - I would run more but want to make this post before Euliat comes in, calls us all idiots and correctly and concisely explains the problem) at an average of:

90,484 DPS

Stat weights are pretty normal. Haste - 0.46, crit 0.39, mastery 0.27. Obliterate has a crit rate of 34.9%, Frost strike 28.9%

Next we turn off the mastery buff and add the crit buff.

91,473 DPS

Haste - 0.45, crit 0.38, mastery 0.27. Obliterate 38.3% crit rate, Frost strike 32.8%.

Crit is being suppressed in the sims it would seem, by a signifcant margin.

Finally both enabled.

93,900 dps

Haste - 0.44, crit 0.38, mastery 0.27. Obliterate 38.3% crit rate, Frost strike 32.7%,

We gained 2,472 DPS from 3000 mastery. 3,416 damage DPS from 3000 crit.

---

I'll attempt to correlate this with real world data. I mostly just wanted to confirm that crit was being devalued significantly in the sims to make up for overwritten crits.

I still can't really explain your findings.
Edited by Solution on 1/11/2013 3:45 PM PST
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90 Orc Death Knight
8550
However, I'm pretty sure that, as you get more haste and your KM procs per minute increase and you become closer to GCD capped, you devalue crit even more (for Oblit and Frost Strike) because you have an even higher chance of overriding (what could have been) a regular crit with a KM crit.

EDIT: And on the above note... it seems that - and please correct me if I'm wrong here - the more crit you get, the less valuable it becomes, simply because KM will overwrite a potential "natural" crit even more often (higher likelihood that the two will "intersect").


Killing machine is capped at 5ppm, therefore it will never devalue crit more than it already does.
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90 Orc Death Knight
7950

Killing machine is capped at 5ppm, therefore it will never devalue crit more than it already does.


Hmmm... that's incorrect, unless they changed something. You can even look at the log I posted (http://worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-brgmbb9jos1vp6m7/details/56/?s=5039&e=5351), wherein the fight lasts 5 minutes, yet Killing Machine procced 53 times. That's 10 times per minute, good sir. (Look under the "buffs gained" tab)

Haste increases ppm on most ppm abilities. Has for some time now.
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90 Draenei Death Knight
11090
01/11/2013 03:44 PMPosted by Dagosh
Killing machine is capped at 5ppm, therefore it will never devalue crit more than it already does.


What? It has a base PPM of 6, which, given that you have haste, means you will always receive more than 6 procs per minute.

01/11/2013 01:30 PMPosted by Dagosh
You don't have all your numbers, so i couldn't really say for sure, but the general logic is that over half of your damage should be coming from Obliterate when you're 2h frost.


If over half of your damage is coming from OB, you are doing something seriously wrong. It should be roughly 1/3.

01/11/2013 01:02 PMPosted by Shäyy
PLEASE TELL ME WHAT I'M MISSING??


Minions.

His crit rate should be +2% higher than the character pane, and his mastery should be +10% higher than the character pane due to raid buffs. However, these don't change your conclusion.

I cannot calculate anything that differs from your conclusion using that linked parse, however, with both my 2H Frost spreadsheet (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgEwKT9377f3dHFCTFR4UEFJdXpOQno3cFVNRngyUnc) and my 2H Frost sim (not linking it because it wouldn't do you any good anyway), I can't calculate/generate anything that says mastery > crit (and I would trust both of these over a single ranked parse any day), but I can see that mastery is pretty close to crit (93%+).

But, neither of these factors in AotD, which would only raise crit.
Edited by Euliat on 1/11/2013 4:09 PM PST
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90 Orc Death Knight
8550
Yes, i should probably start with retractions. My starting number for KM ppm was wrong. Also I mispoke in % of Obl damage. I was probably trying to say all non-frost damage was over 50%, which is true, but got it in my head that this was only obliterate.

But having looked over a few World of Logs parses, I agree with Euliat that though mastery might be close, Crit will beat it. Crit only gets devalued on 2 moves in your damage pool, even though those two moves make up more than half your damage, the other half is significant. On the occasion where KM is making up 2/3 of your crits, as in the numbers you start with. It is only devaluing at a rate of 2/3 * %FS/Obl Dmg; which will almost never be greater than 50%

More accurately, KM devalues crit linearly at % (KMprocs/total hits). So until you get to the point that haste makes that value = % Frost Damage then it will always be greater. Alternatively, once you get Mastery to the point that % Frost Damage > % (KMprocs/total hits) then Mastery becomes more valuable.
Edited by Dagosh on 1/11/2013 4:41 PM PST
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100 Orc Death Knight
15210
What never made sense to me was that Crit is better for 2hnd than it is for DW

HB will be the Majority of your dmg on a number of fights and with DW frost GCD capping much faster then 2hnd frost (Plague leech + 5-6 GCD rune rotation) how does haste improve DW frost dmg more then crit would, after surpassing a certain Haste soft cap.

Howling Blast being completely independent of Killing Machine unlike Obliterate with 2hnd frost.

at a certain haste break point Crit should become better then Haste (mastery always being #1 of course).

and that Break point should be 5980.5 static haste, Crit should then be valued higher for DW then haste.

something's gotta be wrong with the sims.
Edited by Doomgard on 1/11/2013 6:17 PM PST
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100 Dwarf Death Knight
17615
2h frost, crit actually takes over haste at around the 10kish point, for DW, mastery and haste are pretty well tied together, crit just doesnt scale as well as mastery, especially on aoe encounters.

Crits biggest issue, is that it just purely takes too much rating to get a point of crit, and we get nothing special from it. Classes that go for crit have procs or effects, fire mages being the iconic ones, in which their crit gives them much more damage than the original crit damage gain.

Crit is actually of nearly equal power to 2h and DW, Mastery is just much better for DW, as 2h's froststrike hits half as hard and howling blast is only on proc or an aoe situation. Haste and Crit devalue eachother at similar levels, but haste is your 4th stat in this equation, so you don't reach the point that crit takes over (by tier 16, 2h will be on the point of convergence with crit, in the current model) That point is above 10k Haste, but it also is affected by other statistics. Haste generates more crits than crit rating for obliterate.
Edited by Postonforums on 1/11/2013 6:22 PM PST
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55 Goblin Death Knight
4705
01/11/2013 06:18 PMPosted by Postonforums
2h frost, crit actually takes over haste at around the 10kish point


Why though?

Does the rune regen from haste start diminishing or something?
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100 Dwarf Death Knight
17615
Why though?

Does the rune regen from haste start diminishing or something?


The runes/min diminish the more you're getting because the GCD is always static.

Not sure if you've run Lei Shi's trinket, but when it procs, you find yourself unable to spend resources quick enough, you either cap runic or end up with strikes that overflow (This is actually one of the many reasons blood tap is superior to runic empower) your frost strike mechanic.

It's a DPS loss anytime runes arent regenning, or your runic goes over cap.
Edited by Postonforums on 1/11/2013 6:28 PM PST
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55 Goblin Death Knight
4705
Why though?

Does the rune regen from haste start diminishing or something?


The runes/min diminish the more you're getting because the GCD is always static.

Not sure if you've run Lei Shi's trinket, but when it procs, you find yourself unable to spend resources quick enough, you either cap runic or end up with strikes that overflow (This is actually one of the many reasons blood tap is superior to runic empower) your frost strike mechanic.

It's a DPS loss anytime runes arent regenning, or your runic goes over cap.


I see.

Thank you.
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