Blizzard, Sha and Galleon mounts (Part 2)

90 Dwarf Warrior
12275


And things like Frostmourne and Ashbringer can be linked and are in the database but you can't get those either

Both mounts are listed in the dungeon journal as obtainable loot.


Yeah no kidding. That's not the point I'm making. The point is that an item can be in a database and you still can't actually get it. Just because it exists as a file or whatever doesn't mean it is actually obtainable. Just because it is listed in the dungeon journal doesn't have anything to do with the mechanics of how it is actually distributed. That's just a link to what *should* drop and a screen display of it's description, not in any way a link that shows how the programming is interacting when you are killing a boss. Hence, it is in the system, it is supposed to drop but perhaps there is an issue with the coding or something. I was simply helping to further negate the argument that just because it has a file in the game does not equate to the system working as it is supposed to.
Edited by Thussin on 2/6/2013 9:16 PM PST
i had one coin left today and i was like "should i..." and i decided against it.
100 Night Elf Druid
18825


Both mounts are listed in the dungeon journal as obtainable loot.


Yeah no kidding. That's not the point I'm making. The point is that an item can be in a database and you still can't actually get it. Just because it exists as a file or whatever doesn't mean it is actually obtainable. Just because it is listed in the dungeon journal doesn't have anything to do with the mechanics of how it is actually distributed. That's just a link to what *should* drop, not in any way a link that shows how the programming is interacting when you are killing a boss.

We know the difference. Sometimes Wowhead datamines a mount model, or a different color of a certain mount, but we know and they tell us that there's no definite source. When the game itself tells us it's obtainable though, it's a different matter.

i had one coin left today and i was like "should i..." and i decided against it.

It's like a slot machine where you always win 28.50!
Edited by Starkwen on 2/6/2013 9:19 PM PST
100 Blood Elf Paladin
16505
I used a coin, but only because I still need my tier pants. :(
100 Blood Elf Paladin
18395
well that's lame...

kinda reminds me of feng how you couldn't get the ring and I had no idea the whole time
90 Draenei Priest
10355
Id like to say I'm sorry about my post in the last thead I was thinking of the other heavenly cloud serpent and not the one from sha. on a side note I'm now a believer that this mount is bugged and not droping for anyone

also I would love if a mathy person did the math to see if say 100'000 kills at .001% drop rate
what the % chance is that one hasn't droped
90 Draenei Paladin
16080
also I would love if a mathy person did the math to see if say 100'000 kills at .001% drop rate
what the % chance is that one hasn't droped

E: Oops, forgot to chance from percentages.

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%281-.00001%29^100000

There's roughly a 63% chance it would have dropped at least once.
Edited by Tarski on 2/6/2013 9:26 PM PST
90 Dwarf Warrior
12275


Yeah no kidding. That's not the point I'm making. The point is that an item can be in a database and you still can't actually get it. Just because it exists as a file or whatever doesn't mean it is actually obtainable. Just because it is listed in the dungeon journal doesn't have anything to do with the mechanics of how it is actually distributed. That's just a link to what *should* drop, not in any way a link that shows how the programming is interacting when you are killing a boss.

We know the difference. Sometimes Wowhead datamines a mount model, or a different color of a certain mount, but we know and they tell us that there's no definite source. When the game itself tells us it's obtainable though, it's a different matter.

i had one coin left today and i was like "should i..." and i decided against it.

It's like a slot machine where you always win 28.50!


I don't think you understand though. The game is not giving you proof that it drops because there is a link to the item. It's giving you proof that it is intended to drop. There's a difference. The link to the item in the LFR menue is probably not a direct copy from the loot table. It's probably a separate display that shows what drops, interacting completely separately from the boss itself and the drop coding and mechanics themselves. That's what I mean though correct me if I'm wrong. Like, you could probably edit the LFR drop menue to display whatever it is you wanted it to display and the boss would still drop whatever loot is on the table, regardless of what the dungeon journal says.
90 Troll Warlock
20435
There's roughly a 2/3 chance it would have dropped.


And that's taking into account that 0.001% is VERY low for a mount droprate and that Sha has been killed FAR more than 100,000 times.
90 Blood Elf Mage
4680
i think the OP, Bladestorm, should get the first mount. blizzard should just give it to him/her for being brave enough to risk being mocked and relegated to the tin-foil hat club. it took some research and guts to make the initial post, which has since revealed a major flaw in the game.
i think they earned it.


Agreed! That would be awesome - coming on the forums to make your argument is hard enough, but the trolls on here drive some of the best people away. So glad that Bladestorm withstood it; hopefully we'll get some answers soon.
90 Draenei Paladin
16080
02/06/2013 09:28 PMPosted by Awkwardz
There's roughly a 2/3 chance it would have dropped.


And that's taking into account that 0.001% is VERY low for a mount droprate and that Sha has been killed FAR more than 100,000 times.


Absolutely, I was just running the numbers given.
100 Undead Warlock
10775
I don't know whether to be horrified or tickled by this revelation.

Posting to keep track.
1 Tauren Warrior
0
So many coins... wasted.

What if Blizzard comes and says "working as intended"......

....
....
....

1 week latter, people will start to suddenly get mount drops =p
90 Worgen Hunter
14555
Ill forgive them if they said that it wasn't working as intended and that they apologize for it. After all, bugs exist only because we discover them. When we acknowledge that a mount has a really rare chance of dropping, we seldom request some further proof. Since it took only up until this thread to get mainstream attention and actual concern for lack of evidence, it would make sense that blizzard wouldn't realize (if there is) something is wrong with these mounts.
90 Orc Death Knight
16750
If you try and average high and low pop servers, you can make a rough guess at about 50 kills a week.
50 kills * 40 people = 2000 chances at loot (assuming they're not locked)

2000 chances * 500 servers = 100,000 chances of loot a week.... a week.

MoP has been out for ~19 weeks or so but lets give everyone two weeks to hit max level just for the sake of argument.

That means that 17 * 100,000 = 1,700,000 chances at the mount so far. Lets also assume that there's a .1% chance, which is on par with some of the other extremely rare mounts.

I could be doing the math wrong, but that's somewhere close to a 2.13×10^-739 chance that no one has looted this yet.

To those of you that can't do math, that's essentially the same thing as 0% that no one has it yet.
100 Blood Elf Paladin
17695
I'd like a response to to know if my coins or even if just doing the boss on multiple characters a week is a wasted effort when trying to get the mounts. Screenshots on wowhead mean just about nothing when there is no one else in those screenshots. While yes i do at times take screenshots of only me on newer mounts i get those are also dropping for people, where as an almost impossible to get mount(or impossible) does not have a single other person in it making a private server a full possibility.

I'd also like to know why there's been countless mount threads asking for a 200-250 mount achievement and even probably countless twitter questions and yet all we get is the middle finger and not a single response. Saying "we'll add another when it's time" isn't a response when 11.2% of all max level characters have the 150 mount, when is it time blizz? when the same population gets 200 or even 250? Whats the point in adding collection achievements when there's nothing to achieve when the race was long since won.
100 Troll Priest
14970
also I would love if a mathy person did the math to see if say 100'000 kills at .001% drop rate
what the % chance is that one hasn't droped

E: Oops, forgot to chance from percentages.

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%281-.00001%29^100000

There's roughly a 63% chance it would have dropped at least once.


Given this same formula, it looks like you would need around 700,000 Sha loots, that's 40 people per raid, with possibility of share tag plus coin chance every week, on every server, on both factions in 4 months. If that totaled 700,000 or more, there is a 99.9% chance it would've dropped at least once. This is, of course is assuming the drop rate was .001 which I'm not sure exists for any item in game.
90 Human Hunter
10825
Well, like I said in the last thread, I've seen the galleon mount with my own eyes (horde side). Though after reading all of this I'm wondering if it was a hack (it was in the valley, only a few weeks after MoP's release, so it could have been a hacker/botter I guess).

I don't play horde but I have a low lvl in Org, I'll log in occasionally and see if he pops up on it again. If I can get a screenie I'll post it.
90 Human Paladin
13525
If you try and average high and low pop servers, you can make a rough guess at about 50 kills a week.
50 kills * 40 people = 2000 chances at loot (assuming they're not locked)

2000 chances * 500 servers = 100,000 chances of loot a week.... a week.

MoP has been out for ~19 weeks or so but lets give everyone two weeks to hit max level just for the sake of argument.

That means that 17 * 100,000 = 1,700,000 chances at the mount so far. Lets also assume that there's a .1% chance, which is on par with some of the other extremely rare mounts.

I could be doing the math wrong, but that's somewhere close to a 2.13×10^-739 chance that no one has looted this yet.

To those of you that can't do math, that's essentially the same thing as 0% that no one has it yet.


That doesn't even include double rolls from the coins. So yeah, basically someone SHOULD have this mount is the point, yet no one does... I'm heading to bed, hope something turns up over night :x
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