LFR Drop Rate issues

90 Dwarf Warrior
17115
02/03/2013 02:49 PMPosted by Mahourai
You have to prove it exists.


If I linked you 1400 armories, you would say that isn't sufficient proof, and would probably breach a couple ToS bullet points.

You just have to link 1.
Edited by Asane on 2/3/2013 2:51 PM PST
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90 Blood Elf Mage
11000
If I linked you 1400 armories, you would say that isn't sufficient proof, and would probably breach a couple ToS bullet points.

You just have to link 1.


Or I could link a blue post that states LFR does not do what you describe.

EDIT:

Here is another one:

"We're not looking to make LFR drops guaranteed, that kind of reliable gearing is what Justice and Valor are for not boss fights..." -Bashiok

So there's another developer stating that LFR loot is not guaranteed.

EDIT EDIT:

The plural of anecdote is not data.

EDIT EDIT EDIT:

Considering you likely already know all the information I'm presenting anyway I'm going to assume you insisting on secret LFR mechanics is just a joke I don't get.
Edited by Mahourai on 2/3/2013 2:57 PM PST
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90 Dwarf Warrior
17115
so, are you conceding, or are you changing the subject?

"We don't feel that having a specificly targetted legendary would appeal to our audience. You can expect to never see a legendary like Rogue Daggers for instance" - Firelands

You're actually proving my point.

If it's 4%, I would suspect I'd see it at this point, out of the 1000's of armories I've followed.

Im asking to be proven wrong, with evidence, not quotes.
Edited by Asane on 2/3/2013 3:01 PM PST
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90 Blood Elf Mage
11000
so, are you conceding, or are you changing the subject?

"We don't feel that having a specificly targetted legendary would appeal to our audience. You can expect to never see a legendary like Rogue Daggers for instance" - Firelands

You're actually proving my point.

If it's 4%, I would suspect I'd see it at this point, out of the 1000's of armories I've followed.

Im asking to be proven wrong, with evidence, not quotes.


You made that quote up, or to be more charitable you paraphrased it.
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90 Dwarf Warrior
17115
02/03/2013 03:03 PMPosted by Mahourai
You made that quote up, or to be more charitable you paraphrased it.


To be fair, I paraphrased it, I cant find the original, it was a pretty big deal when it ended up happening, but it specifically did say that you wouldnt see rogue daggers as an example.

The actual quote is irrelevant to the discussion, as my point only requires that Blue quotes are not evidence of anything besides design theory.
Especially blue quotes in the last year, since they've gone back on them so much (We don't want Heroic Raiders to have to do LFR, we won't nerf heroic bosses mid week, except world first sha of fear, etc etc)
Edited by Asane on 2/3/2013 3:08 PM PST
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90 Blood Elf Mage
11000
02/03/2013 03:04 PMPosted by Asane
To be fair, I paraphrased it, I cant find the original, it was a pretty big deal when it ended up happening, but it specifically did say that you wouldnt see rogue daggers as an example.


It's not hard to see the difference between the developer hedging their bets about future plans with weaselly statements like "You can expect not to see X" where "expect not to" leaves room open for the exact opposite to happen, and statements from developers like "LFR only looks at two factors" where in order for you to be right the developer must simply be lying.

That is your contention right, that both of those blue posts are lies? They can't simply be wrong, like a poster saying "we will probably never make a tank shield legendary" ends up being wrong, they are statements about how LFR currently works that directly contradict how it works in your mind. Presumably you also contend that the 15% drop rate is false since it's actually a scaling drop system.

No matter how many armories you can link where people got something from one boss it doesn't provide evidence that such a system exists - not evidence good enough, anyway. It would be more telling if you had a collection of armories with suspicious patterns that would be generated by such a system. For example if you had hundreds of armories where the person defeated 15 bosses and got nothing and then received a piece of loot from the 16th every time. Even this would just be compelling circumstantial evidence and not proof, in the face of blue posts stating the system works nothing like you contend.
Edited by Mahourai on 2/3/2013 3:13 PM PST
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90 Dwarf Warrior
17115
Ya, ya
If I linked you 22 million armories which included every level 90 character, you'd still say "NO YOU CANT PROVE IT", so I guess you just can concede the argument because you can't accept being wrong.

02/03/2013 03:11 PMPosted by Mahourai
For example if you had hundreds of armories where the person defeated 15 bosses and got nothing and then received a piece of loot from the 16th every time


I'm not saying that, because Sha of Fear's drop chance is roughly 15% on statistic gathering sites, I am saying that the pattern I've noticed across 1000s of players which was well over 5000 runs, had a grand total of 0% out of an expected ~4% of strikeouts, this lends me to believe there's a failsafe in the system, which still maintains the 15%, but does actually limit the extreme bottom.

02/03/2013 03:11 PMPosted by Mahourai
in the face of blue posts stating the system works nothing like you contend.


I can link you 100 wrong blue posts, Would you like me to?
Edited by Asane on 2/3/2013 3:16 PM PST
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90 Blood Elf Mage
11000
Ya, ya
If I linked you 22 million armories which included every level 90 character, you'd still say "NO YOU CANT PROVE IT", so I guess you just can concede the argument because you can't accept being wrong.


smart aleck "I accept your concession" remarks aren't impressing anyone, even yourself I'd imagine.

You just don't understand that linking 1,000 armories (which again you can't do) where people didn't get screwed means nothing. No matter whether this system exists or not, the vast majority of players are not going to get screwed, so saying you know of a lot of people out of the hundreds of thousands/millions running LFR that didn't get screwed mean nothing.

It's the difference between that one thread where the guy linked a very suspicious drop pattern for 2 items off of Feng 10H, bolstered with thousands of iterations of wowhead data scrobbing, and guys asserting that drop rates are secretly screwing them.
EDIT:

I'm not saying that, because Sha of Fear's drop chance is roughly 15% on statistic gathering sites, I am saying that the pattern I've noticed across 1000s of players which was well over 5000 runs, had a grand total of 0% out of an expected ~4% of strikeouts, this lends me to believe there's a failsafe in the system, which still maintains the 15%, but does actually limit the extreme bottom.


But you ARE saying that. If there is a system that prevents everyone from never getting loot, it should be possible for you to get nothing from the first 15 bosses you defeat and then get a guaranteed piece of loot. Either that or you are now also asserting that it makes sure to only give you a piece of loot in the middle of your LFR and not at the end, to avoid revealing its own existence.
Edited by Mahourai on 2/3/2013 3:22 PM PST
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90 Dwarf Warrior
17115
02/03/2013 03:19 PMPosted by Mahourai
It's the difference between that one thread where the guy linked a very suspicious drop pattern for 2 items off of Feng 10H, bolstered with thousands of iterations of wowhead data scrobbing, and guys asserting that drop rates are secretly screwing them.


Guess what

He was right

They had to hotfix both those items to actually drop

Stop proving me right when you're trying to prove me wrong =x

http://eu.battle.net/wow/en/blog/6617095

Feng the Accursed now correctly has a chance to drop Fan of Fiery Winds and Feng’s Ring of Dreams in the 10 player Heroic mode version of the encounter.
Edited by Asane on 2/3/2013 3:22 PM PST
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90 Dwarf Warrior
17115
02/03/2013 03:19 PMPosted by Mahourai
But you ARE saying that. If there is a system that prevents everyone from never getting loot, it should be possible for you to get nothing from the first 15 bosses you defeat and then get a guaranteed piece of loot. Either that or you are now also asserting that it makes sure to only give you a piece of loot in the middle of your LFR and not at the end, to avoid revealing its own existence.


Prove me wrong.

I keep proving you wrong, you do it once.

02/03/2013 03:22 PMPosted by Mahourai
In this case you are not the guy linking evidence from WoWhead, you are the idiot blovating about cargo cult theories with no evidence provided.


Im offering evidence, but you don't accept it.

1000 witnesses with 0 counter witnesses would be enough to convict a murder.

Note before you change the subject and whine and cry more, Im not comparing murder to lfr loot
Edited by Asane on 2/3/2013 3:26 PM PST
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90 Blood Elf Mage
11000
Prove me wrong

I keep proving you wrong, you do it once.


You're not very good at this whole debate thing.

So far you "proving me wrong" is saying "I have thousands of armories of evidence that I'm not prepared to give you" while ignoring the fact that you're not describing evidence for your own position, and comparing yourself favorably to a past case in an example. Oh let's not forget the crackerjack logic of proving that blue posters lie by "paraphrasing" a post about expected future developments.


1000 witnesses with 0 counter witnesses would be enough to convict a murder.


This example would be more accurate if you were a lawyer who was just saying he knew thousands of witnesses and then refusing to bring them to the stand, and when he describes the testimony the witnesses would have been giving it doesn't have anything to do with the murder.
Edited by Mahourai on 2/3/2013 3:27 PM PST
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90 Dwarf Warrior
17115
If I filled this post with links, I would get banned.

02/03/2013 03:26 PMPosted by Mahourai
This example would be more accurate if you were a lawyer who was just saying he knew thousands of witnesses and then refusing to bring them to the stand, and when he describes the testimony the witnesses would have been giving it doesn't have anything to do with the murder.


Ya, I even said not to take that too literal, of course analogies break down when you say "WELL MURDER ISNT PURPLE"
Edited by Asane on 2/3/2013 3:30 PM PST
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90 Blood Elf Mage
11000
Ya, I even said not to take that too literal, of course analogies break down when you say "WELL MURDER ISNT PURPLE"


I didn't in any way attack your analogy as not being perfectly accurate to playing a videogame, I pointed out that the quality of evidence you supposedly have is not damning like witness testimony.

I emphasize "supposedly".

EDIT:

Your responses make it plain that you don't care what I have to say. Given that your guild's posters, you included, usually have their head on their shoulders I can only assume that your posts about this are just a meta troll mimicking posters who complain about bad LFR drop rates, and not that you actually believe in some kind of bizarre charitable LFR loot conspiracy.
Edited by Mahourai on 2/3/2013 3:47 PM PST
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90 Blood Elf Hunter
15100
My activity feed. The week 1/22-1/29.

The dry spell included half the raids the week before that as well, but we won't count those.
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90 Orc Shaman
13750
02/03/2013 03:35 PMPosted by Mahourai
I didn't in any way attack your analogy as not being perfectly accurate to playing a videogame, I pointed out that the quality of evidence you supposedly have is not damning like witness testimony.


Actually, his point is that you can't produce a witness to the crime.
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90 Blood Elf Mage
11000
02/03/2013 06:56 PMPosted by Hyjinx
Actually, his point is that you can't produce a witness to the crime.


There is no crime.

EDIT:

Never discuss an issue with analogies, they're all bad. Anyway his point (if that was it) is terrible. He doesn't have 1000 pieces of evidence in support of his position, both because he is falsely claiming to have compiled more reports from armories than he actually has and because the reports do not actually support his point. While I now have a guy posting who supports my position he simply refused to consider direct blue statements to the contrary of his.
Edited by Mahourai on 2/3/2013 8:27 PM PST
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90 Dwarf Warrior
17115
02/03/2013 08:20 PMPosted by Mahourai
There is no crime.


Ya, I'm just going to assume you're being intentionally dull.
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90 Blood Elf Mage
11000
There is no crime.


Ya, I'm just going to assume you're being intentionally dull.


You're wrong every way it's possible to be wrong. Your evidence doesn't exist and if it did is of no substance, there's a guy posting in this thread as a counterexample, blues have stated the system doesn't work like you imagine, and you're horrible at using analogies.

EDIT:

02/03/2013 06:56 PMPosted by Hyjinx
Actually, his point is that you can't produce a witness to the crime.


Is this your only contribution to this discussion? No input on whether or not the theory of Magically Always Get Something In LFR is true?
Edited by Mahourai on 2/3/2013 8:40 PM PST
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90 Human Paladin
aus
18580
02/03/2013 05:39 PMPosted by Outlandr
My activity feed. The week 1/22-1/29.


Btw items that are disenchanted/deleted/vendored immediately do not show in activity feed.

As as I have said before in response to asanes assertion. I did have 2 dry weeks where I definitely did not get loot, one was a 12/16 week and the other might have been a 15/16 week. But the 3rd week I did a full clear 16/16 plus a couple of coins and got 10! drops. Of which 2 where actually upgrades.

Wasn't their a blue response that said their no issue with shaman drop rates in MC and they later fixed that?

Not all blizzard responses are the same level GC is not customer support for example, blue frequently tries to ambiguous as possible while reassuring, blue has been known to be mistaken and their has been ample evidence over the years that the left hand doe's not always talk to the right hand. But their is little evidence that they have outright lied.
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