Blizzard, Sha and Galleon mounts (Pt3)

90 Orc Warlock
11315
Since the 2nd thread is about to cap and Bladestorm doesn't seem to be around to repost a new thread, I'll set it up-

Old threads-
http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/7810522218?page=1 (Part 1)
http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/7810522637?page=1 (Part 2)

Post by Bladestorm-

So apparently nobody has obtained a Sha or Galleon mount, ever. There is 0 proof this is on the loot tables at all. There are a few screenshots but mostly the people are in t3 etc which leads me to believe they are using a certain morphing program I won't name.

Now I always thought it was strange I have never seen either mount on a server with easily 2k+ sha loots a week seeing as it dies every 15 minutes almost the entire week. But Guildox comes to the rescue!

http://www.guildox.com/go/g.aspx?a=30

In case you are not aware guildox scans the armory and gets EVERYONES armory details using blizzards official API. This includes hk's, mounts, achievements etc. It scans US, EU and Asian realms. Literally nobody in wow has seen this mount, Blizzard.

I believe something is definitely not right here, whether it be the mount is unobtainable and only there to encourage geared people to actually kill sha for a chance at it; or something got messed up with the coding and it is actually not possible to drop. (Similar to some heroic 10 man feng loot actually being impossible to drop until it got hotfixed)

Out of the multiple wowhead comments of people claiming they or their guildies got either mount, none of them have ever posted an armory link as proof even when asked multiple times. And well, Guildox solidifies this even more.

Thoughts?

Edit: If you are going to claim you have seen the mount please link an armory as proof or your comment will be considered trolling, or misinformed.



--Oddly-Shaped Horn If you have seen someone on a Mushan mount in the Valley of the Four Winds, you likely saw this, unless you can link an armoury.
--The HEAVENLY Onyx Serpent has glowing white accenting; not lightning or the black/green/grey accenting of the Shado-Pan Onyx Serpent.


post by Azeban-

To all you naysayers who think it's possible for this to simply not have happened, allow me to give you a lesson in statistics.It isn't even remotely imaginable.

Items off world bosses like Sha and Galleon are rolled on a per character basis, similar to the new system for LFR. Each character is given an equal chance of looting the mount.

Let's be very ridiculously conservative and assume the mount drops 0.001% of the time (1 in 100,000). This is a smaller percent drop than anything in WoW, ever. This means that every time someone kills the Sha, he or she has a 99.999% chance of not seeing the mount. Each time a Sha is killed 40 players get a chance to roll on it.

I'll assume people have been killing the Sha for 12 weeks now, at least 5 times per server, per week, yielding 60 Sha kills per realm, which in turn yields (40*60) = 2,400 looting opportunities. I feel that even the lowest pop realms reach this number, but if not, realms like Illidan have way more to compensate. Again, I'm being very conservative.

A trip to wowprogress reveals 246 US realms, and 267 EU realms, totaling 513 realms.

The Sha of Anger has been looted at least (2,400*513)= 1,231,200 times since launch. I'd bet every penny I had that it's been looted more.

Statistically, the chance of nobody getting the mount by now is .99999^1,231,200 = 0.00045%, or 1 in 222,362. That's roughly similar in magnitude to you winning the $10,000 Powerball this week, buying only three tickets.Alternatively, there is a 99.9996% chance of someone having the mount by now. This is with me being very conservative. As I increase the number of kills, this gets more and more ridiculous, because we're dealing with an exponential.

Let's be crazy and assume it's killed 10 times per week per server. Now the chances of nobody willing are 1 in 49,444,818,741. This is the chance of you winning the Powerball Jackpot every week for the next 5 years.

Have I made my point?
Edited by Kurze on 2/7/2013 3:49 PM PST
90 Human Warrior
7250
Posting to keep track :)
90 Goblin Shaman
15380
Once again, posting to keep track.
90 Gnome Mage
14780
In b4 more posts of "I've seen a galleon mount in valley" without reading the original post.
90 Blood Elf Paladin
11680
I'm posting again to see if we can track down Elvis...I mean Sha and Galleon mounts.
90 Night Elf Death Knight
11285
Thanks for the recognition!
Edited by Azeban on 2/7/2013 3:53 PM PST
90 Troll Priest
13855
Once again, post armory proof of someone having this mount or your claim of "My (guildie/friend/cousin) has this mount" is null.
90 Blood Elf Paladin
17240
I wish to see the mount jesus flew off on and was never seen again afterword. Single armory link is all it takes to end this(bet you gold cap you won't find a single person on any server).

I expect something a little more fancy than a middle finger when some kind of word is said on this subject as to why not a single person in the world has gotten either mount and why we've been trying for 4 1/2 months on alts/mains/coins for nothing.
Edited by Wilhelm on 2/7/2013 3:56 PM PST
90 Orc Warlock
11315
02/07/2013 03:53 PMPosted by Azeban
Thanks for the recognition!


It was a good post, and the numbers are worth remembering.
90 Orc Hunter
8445
My torches and pitchforks are ready
90 Human Death Knight
11960
Huzzuh
90 Human Paladin
13525
I'm glad to see part 3 gave proper credit to the originals twice, even if it would be sorta impossible to make a part 3 without mentioning the first two parts.

Now, let's cap this out, and make another, and rinse and repeat until we get an answer!

or just hope they answer in this one :D
90 Troll Druid
13825
Expecting an answer.
90 Night Elf Druid
17360
Answers - Boo-my-ay!
90 Human Warrior
9690
Still here, watching for answers, and laughing at new posters who haven't done their reading.
90 Undead Warlock
12500
So that explains why i haven't seen them.
90 Draenei Shaman
11660
I wish to see the mount jesus flew off on and was never seen again afterword. Single armory link is all it takes to end this(bet you gold cap you won't find a single person on any server).

I expect something a little more fancy than a middle finger when some kind of word is said on this subject as to why not a single person in the world has gotten either mount and why we've been trying for 4 1/2 months on alts/mains/coins for nothing.


Haha, I must admit that the first part of your post made me giggle. =P

At this point, though, I'd be highly suspicious if we suddenly got someone to link a legit armory.

/puts on tinfoil hat
90 Human Rogue
13355
Posting in another epic bread.

Posting my previous posts so all can see it's magnificence.



The collective community has created nearly 2 capped threads.

So yeah a response would be appreciated.


If i recall correctly, it took the "We got locked out from LFR loot for wiping" thread over 50 pages to get a response, and all it was was something like "We're looking into it", like we've already gotten from the twitter feed.

Repeating:
If Blizzard can determine how many male players between the ages of 23 and 26 are playing Ret Paladins and using Seal of Insight while Gemming Agility/Crit , they can determine the drop rate of an item.


I don't buy it. No way in hell that this company never realized for almost 5 months that this particular item didn't drop.


/tinfoilhat

These mounts will be enabled in 5.2 to encourage people to still kill Sha and Galleon every week to help out the crowd of alts that will inevitably be looking (unsuccessfully) for Sha kills.
Edited by Daltin on 2/7/2013 4:10 PM PST
90 Orc Warlock
11750
"It's something we're watching very carefully to ensure they're dropping correctly. All I've got for now!"

https://twitter.com/Warcraft/status/299619824676528128
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