Blizzard, Sha and Galleon mounts (Pt3)

90 Blood Elf Paladin
13230
From Azeban in last thread:
To all you naysayers who think it's possible for this to simply not have happened, allow me to give you a lesson in statistics.

It isn't even remotely imaginable.

Items off world bosses like Sha and Galleon are rolled on a per character basis, similar to the new system for LFR. Each character is given an equal chance of looting the mount.

Let's be very ridiculously conservative and assume the mount drops 0.001% of the time (1 in 100,000). This is a smaller percent drop than anything in WoW, ever. This means that every time someone kills the Sha, he or she has a 99.999% chance of not seeing the mount. Each time a Sha is killed 40 players get a chance to roll on it.

I'll assume people have been killing the Sha for 12 weeks now, at least 5 times per server, per week, yielding 60 Sha kills per realm, which in turn yields (40*60) = 2,400 looting opportunities. I feel that even the lowest pop realms reach this number, but if not, realms like Illidan have way more to compensate. Again, I'm being very conservative.

A trip to wowprogress reveals 246 US realms, and 267 EU realms, totaling 513 realms.

The Sha of Anger has been looted at least (2,400*513)= 1,231,200 times since launch. I'd bet every penny I had that it's been looted more.

Statistically, the chance of nobody getting the mount by now is .99999^1,231,200 = 0.00045%, or 1 in 222,362. That's roughly similar in magnitude to you winning the $10,000 Powerball this week, buying only three tickets.

Alternatively, there is a 99.9996% chance of someone having the mount by now. This is with me being very conservative. As I increase the number of kills, this gets more and more ridiculous, because we're dealing with an exponential.

Let's be crazy and assume it's killed 10 times per week per server. Now the chances of nobody willing are 1 in 49,444,818,741.

This is the chance of you winning the Powerball Jackpot every week for the next 5 years.

Have I made my point?


I thought this was worth putting back up from the last thread.
11 Goblin Shaman
30
I'm sure I'll get flamed for not believing that the mount has never dropped, but after reading a thread on GuildOx that talks about how they got the list, it does not include everyone at this point. They current list is using a sample of max level WoW characters, not all WoW characters, or even all max level WoW characters.

Polar, one of the creators of the list, has said:

"I have added an extra decimal place to the results. GuildOx is also gathering a greater sample size to try and find some people with these extra rare mounts. I am a little concerned that we might be chasing things that don't exist - so if you have any battle.net character profiles that which shows these extra-rare mounts then it would go a long way to helping us analyse the effectiveness of our sampling."

At this point, I don't think anyone can say with any certainty that these mounts have never dropped.

http://www.guildox.com/wow/forum/thread/2082 Link to thread I quoted, fourth green post in the thread.
Edited by Nezne on 2/7/2013 4:49 PM PST
90 Night Elf Death Knight
11285
From Azeban in last thread:
To all you naysayers who think it's possible for this to simply not have happened, allow me to give you a lesson in statistics.

It isn't even remotely imaginable.

Items off world bosses like Sha and Galleon are rolled on a per character basis, similar to the new system for LFR. Each character is given an equal chance of looting the mount.

Let's be very ridiculously conservative and assume the mount drops 0.001% of the time (1 in 100,000). This is a smaller percent drop than anything in WoW, ever. This means that every time someone kills the Sha, he or she has a 99.999% chance of not seeing the mount. Each time a Sha is killed 40 players get a chance to roll on it.

I'll assume people have been killing the Sha for 12 weeks now, at least 5 times per server, per week, yielding 60 Sha kills per realm, which in turn yields (40*60) = 2,400 looting opportunities. I feel that even the lowest pop realms reach this number, but if not, realms like Illidan have way more to compensate. Again, I'm being very conservative.

A trip to wowprogress reveals 246 US realms, and 267 EU realms, totaling 513 realms.

The Sha of Anger has been looted at least (2,400*513)= 1,231,200 times since launch. I'd bet every penny I had that it's been looted more.

Statistically, the chance of nobody getting the mount by now is .99999^1,231,200 = 0.00045%, or 1 in 222,362. That's roughly similar in magnitude to you winning the $10,000 Powerball this week, buying only three tickets.

Alternatively, there is a 99.9996% chance of someone having the mount by now. This is with me being very conservative. As I increase the number of kills, this gets more and more ridiculous, because we're dealing with an exponential.

Let's be crazy and assume it's killed 10 times per week per server. Now the chances of nobody willing are 1 in 49,444,818,741.

This is the chance of you winning the Powerball Jackpot every week for the next 5 years.

Have I made my point?


I thought this was worth putting back up from the last thread.


I appreciate it!
50 Human Rogue
3405
I had been stealth watching the last 2 and thought I would post here.

/stealth
100 Human Priest
18470
To think, all those wasted charms...
90 Human Rogue
13355
I'm sure I'll get flamed for not believing that the mount has never dropped, but after reading a thread on GuildOx that talks about how they got the list, it does not include everyone at this point. They current list is using a sample of max level WoW characters, not all WoW characters, or even all max level WoW characters.

Polar, one of the creators of the list, has said:

"I have added an extra decimal place to the results. GuildOx is also gathering a greater sample size to try and find some people with these extra rare mounts. I am a little concerned that we might be chasing things that don't exist - so if you have any battle.net character profiles that which shows these extra-rare mounts then it would go a long way to helping us analyse the effectiveness of our sampling."

At this point, I don't think anyone can say with any certainty that these mounts have never dropped.

http://www.guildox.com/wow/forum/thread/2082


It's all fine and dandy. We can't "prove" that it doesn't exist.

But in 2013, with how strong everyone's inner-troll is, and how everyone likes to show off everything and anything..

see MMO-C threads like: "World first Death knight soloing All Bosses simlutaneously in Scholomance wearing Cloth Int gear!"

The fact that no one in 5 months has perked up, and made their mount loud, proud, and known to the world? That no one has anyone in their guild that has one?

I'm from Medium pop Elune, and I'd know if someone had that mount. The entire realm would. It was big news when the first Elegon mount dropped, everyone know who it was. Even if you didn't know his name, if the someone said:

"Did you see the Elegon mount outside the shrine?"
"Oh, the Death Knight from XXXX? Yeah"

Someone, somewhere, in 2013 and this technological world we live in, proof would exist after 5 months.
90 Worgen Warrior
13950
Good thread :)
90 Night Elf Death Knight
PSY
8145
Your QQ gives me strength!

^
Edited by Trinius on 2/7/2013 4:56 PM PST
90 Human Mage
4440
Someone on my server (Dath'Remar or Frostmourne) has Galleon mount. If I see the person again I will remember their name and post Armory.
100 Draenei Shaman
12845
02/07/2013 04:40 PMPosted by Advicetroll
I only remarked on my suspicions of an armory link now because I feel as though we're all bracing for the silent "ninja" buff that could be impending on both of these mounts.
Doesn't it take a restart to change things like drop rates?


I'd imagine that it would, and I think that if that were to happen, it wouldn't happen until a Tuesday maintenance day.

I just consider a silent buff to be something they just do in the middle of the night, and then play it off like we're all crazy. Which we might be, but who knows at this point.
100 Troll Hunter
15640
Posting for reasons and stuff
90 Blood Elf Paladin
15075
02/07/2013 03:59 PMPosted by Destructable
Huzzuh


HUZZAH ( ゚ヮ゚)

also posting to keep track

thanks OP
100 Orc Monk
15060
Another post for tracking purposes.
90 Troll Warlock
20435
02/07/2013 04:57 PMPosted by Infectiious
Someone on my server (Dath'Remar or Frostmourne) has Galleon mount. If I see the person again I will remember their name and post Armory.


Are you absolutely SURE that it's not the Oddly Shaped Horn?
90 Night Elf Death Knight
PSY
8145
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KRnrLeGHq4o
90 Worgen Druid
16765
02/07/2013 04:57 PMPosted by Infectiious
Someone on my server (Dath'Remar or Frostmourne) has Galleon mount. If I see the person again I will remember their name and post Armory.


We should start tallying the number of people who say this and then don't come back with an armory. :P
90 Human Mage
4440
02/07/2013 05:04 PMPosted by Awkwardz
Someone on my server (Dath'Remar or Frostmourne) has Galleon mount. If I see the person again I will remember their name and post Armory.


Are you absolutely SURE that it's not the Oddly Shaped Horn?


Pretty sure the person was riding up and down on Galleon mount for like an hour. Hope I see the person with the mount again.
90 Draenei Warrior
9830
I usually don't encourage threads that requires multiple posts, but the theory that no one that post in forums or has gotten their armory info mined at this point has yet to prove of having the mount and the theory of the null rolls (I call them Denied Rolls) being a possible bug it is something to be concern about, specially with the system being at an early stage.

This sure calls for some "Looking into it."

My support to the devs, since they will be the ones trying to figure out what's going on...or come up with a really good explanation as to why it is working this way, if it is working as intended.
90 Orc Shaman
8355
Holy crap it's that low? I didn't think it was that bad. I have some rare mounts but wow.

Increase the droprate when 5.2 comes out. Nobody is gonna be doing sha or galleon once the newer world bosses come out.
This topic has reached its post limit. You may no longer post or reply to posts for this topic.

Please report any Code of Conduct violations, including:

Threats of violence. We take these seriously and will alert the proper authorities.

Posts containing personal information about other players. This includes physical addresses, e-mail addresses, phone numbers, and inappropriate photos and/or videos.

Harassing or discriminatory language. This will not be tolerated.

Forums Code of Conduct

Report Post # written by

Reason
Explain (256 characters max)

Reported!

[Close]