Blizzard, Sha and Galleon mounts (Part 4)

100 Orc Death Knight
14040
02/08/2013 01:21 PMPosted by Huggywuggles
They will stop once their is proof or a blue post that is reasonable.


Define 'reasonable' though. People in threads like this seem to equate 'reasonable' with 'answers NAO!' and that's not reasonable in any sense of the word.

Blizzard, in another thread, has stated rather reasonably why they cannot and do not reply to every thread and I think it certainly applies here:

http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/7861806227#20

We answer what we can. Not replying to a thread does not mean it wasn't noticed. We read and track numerous discussion topics daily and relay that feedback to the developers in weekly meetings.

Forward looking questions like "When is the patch coming out?" or "When will <insert request here> happen?"; an answer may not be available until all the details have been confirmed internally. Other times, the questions themselves are loaded or leading.


Blizzard, to my knowledge, has already stated they are (and I believe I'm paraphrasing here), 'monitoring the system to make sure it isn't broken' which means that the system, in all likely-hood ISN'T broken and these mounts are meant to be EXTREMELY rare sort of like Mimrion's head.

And given that world bosses are going 'tap to faction' next patch it really makes sense to me with account bound mounts, etc.


the blue then goes on about power ward: bird..../sigh

see i understand them wanting to be funny and humorous with silly threads(because they are human), but if this thread is already 3 threads long and we still haven't gotten a response with ether a "its a bug and it will be fixed" or "extremely low drop chance as intended". witch to me it seems like a bug because out of these 3 whole threads, i have yet to see somebody link an armory of them obtaining these world boss mounts.
90 Night Elf Death Knight
11285
I don't think you understood what I was saying. When you do something that has a 1% chance over and over again, the chance of you getting the object somewhere in that course of runs increases to the limit of 100%. It's never guaranteed.


Correct me if I'm wrong. You thought that 'stacking percentages' i.e. an increasing % rate of drops would be applied to rare drops, correct?

In that case, at some point, you're going to reach 100%.

But perhaps I'm mis-reading.

And I did, my fault.


No, the thing about my scheme is that it cannot reach 100%, just as the actual mount drops can't. Every chance adds less % than the chance before, EXACTLY as it works in reality.

You did Sha once, no coin. (1 trial)
1-(.99^1)= 1% drop, as intended.

You did Sha once, with coin. (2 trials)
1-(.99^2)= 1.99%

You did Sha twelve times, each with coin. (24 trials)
1-(.99^24)= 21.4%

You did Sha fifty times, each with coin. (100 trials)
1-(.99^100)= 63.4%

It isn't simply additive. As it is in reality. The chance does not raise as quickly as the number of trials, so you never reach a certainty.

Edit: Didn't notice you admit fault, which is in turn my fault. =)
Edited by Azeban on 2/8/2013 1:35 PM PST
100 Draenei Shaman
11785
just simply saying something along the lines of "we're aware of the issue and are looking into it" would be enough.


And they HAVE, that's the point.


The problem with this is the fact that they said it on Twitter.

I know plenty of people do not have Twitter; I for one count among those people. Had someone not posted their "tweet" none of us would have ever known.

These forums are here for a reason, and four capped threads later seem to indicate people might like an in forum response.

Just my thought.
Edited by Ophinia on 2/8/2013 1:32 PM PST
100 Human Paladin
14995
Fixit Fixit Fixit Fixit Fixit Fixit Fixit Fixit Fixit Fixit Fixit Fixit Fixit Fixit Fixit Fixit Fixit Fixit !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
90 Dwarf Warrior
14635


And they HAVE, that's the point.


The problem with this is the fact that they said it on Twitter.

I know plenty of people do not have Twitter; I for one count among those people. Had someone not posted their "tweet" none of us would have never known.

These forums are here for a reason, and four capped threads later seem to indicate people might like an in forum response.

Just my thought.
Adding to this the tweet seems to be purposely vague.
100 Dwarf Paladin
17290
I just do not understand why there has not yet been a simple blue post in one of these threads stating, "We are looking in to it." That would at least quell some of the worry.

The WoWhead forums seem to be.. well, not the best venue, at the moment. The responses I have seen there appear to be filled with nothing more than what was seen here originally - people claiming they saw someone in their group get, a guildy got it, some guy they saw had it, that guildox is not correct, etc. The flavor of the posts there seem to be filled with quite a bit more bitterness though, for some reason.

An official response to this issue would be nice.
14 Worgen Rogue
7210
02/08/2013 01:26 PMPosted by Bladestorm
MILLIONS


Really?
87 Blood Elf Death Knight
13690
They post something, they'll be either praised, or damned because the answer isn't what they want. Once it's out there, it will be scrutinized by millions of people.

World of Warcraft is played in 21 different languages. Legal and the translation teams will have to translate then precisely in all languages. They have to try to make sure that the answer they pose is satisfactory for all parties involved.

It's not as easy as you would think.
90 Night Elf Death Knight
11285
02/08/2013 01:33 PMPosted by Brkatthemoon
MILLIONS


Really?


Yes. Look at the math in the original post. It's not that the Sha has been killed millions of times, but he's certainly been looted millions of times.
90 Gnome Warrior
13000
02/08/2013 01:29 PMPosted by Bladestorm
This is a possibility however what sets these apart from the dozens of other mounts that have been sitting inactive in the game files for years is that these are advertised as being obtainable by blizzard via the dungeon journal.


Then, to me, it seems most likely that Blizzard, in their infinite wisdom, is looking at/monitoring these drops and will say something when they have something more definitive to say since 'We're monitoring drops' isn't good enough for you.

And let's face it, mistakes happen. Even if the mounts are included in the DJ, it's entirely possible that Blizzard simply forgot to remove them from the DJ listing if the mounts, were indeed, removed.
90 Orc Death Knight
16750
Posting for interest
90 Dwarf Warrior
14635
02/08/2013 01:33 PMPosted by Brkatthemoon
MILLIONS


Really?
Lets do a little math, lets say on average Sha is killed 2 times a day per realm; there are around 500 realms eu, us, and asia.

There will be an average of 40 members per kill that get a chance at loot, so that's 80 shots at the mount per day per realm assuming Sha only dies twice (which only really happens on very low pop realms, realms like Frostmourne and Illidan it dies 2-3x an hour all week)

Times that by the amount of realms (there are more than 500 realms, this is just to make it easier) and that is 40,000 shots at the mount per day. 280,000 chances at the mount per week.

Yes, really.
90 Gnome Warrior
13000
02/08/2013 01:31 PMPosted by Ophinia
I know plenty of people do not have Twitter; I for one count among those people. Had someone not posted their "tweet" none of us would have ever known.


I, too, am among those 'no tweet' folks, yet it has been repeated and linked in these forums therefore the information is ripe for the picking.

02/08/2013 01:32 PMPosted by Bladestorm
Adding to this the tweet seems to be purposely vague.


And therein lies the problem.

Players: "We want SOMETHING, anything to be said about this please!"
Blizzard: "We're looking at it, keeping an eye on things but pretty sure it's spot on but will fix if it's broken!"
Players: "That's not good enough!"
100 Dwarf Paladin
17290
02/08/2013 01:35 PMPosted by Alvraen
It's not as easy as you would think.


It would, however, be quite easy for a post to be made on the official forums simply stating "We are looking in to it". Considering the fact that these are the official Blizz forums, and not some third party social networking website.

Not everybody uses Twitter or Facebook or whatever other similar sites there are. These are the Official forums, so it would be nice to have a post on here.
90 Draenei Warrior
11550
So anybody got a link to that tweet
100 Blood Elf Hunter
17710
i want answers!

or a mount, a mount would be nice too
90 Human Rogue
13355
MILLIONS


Really?


Well, there are roughly 500 servers. Sha spawns roughly 5 minutes after a kill. Assumed he's killed 50% within 20 minutes of his spawn, this leaves a server at approximately. 3 kills an hour. This translates to 72 kills a day. But lets go ahead and assume that during the dead hours of the day, he is not killed. Lets just say between 3 and 9 am.

This brings a hypothetical kill to 54 kills a day. Seems reasonable.

54 x 500 servers = 27,000 kills a day.

October 9th was his hotfix to spawn more frequently. There have been 121 days since then.

This brings the hypothetical number to 3,267,000 kills since October 9th.

Obviously not all servers kill Sha as frequently as others. Some will kill him more than 3 times per hour, some will kill him less. Even if you cut the kill total in half to 3 kills every 2 hours, you're still looking at 1.6 million kills.

So, yes. Millions.

I'll go a step further! Because I like big numbers.

assuming a full 40 man group kills him each time, you're looking at 130,680,000 individual characters that have killed Sha of Anger, had a chance at loot, and not received it.

Edit: and before anyone even replies with "NO ONE KILLS SHA THAT MUCH" , Yes, they do. Some servers have 40 mans in queue waiting for a respawn. Some servers Sha is sitting upright for hours.

To reach 1 million kills in 121 days, you would need to average 16 Sha kills per server across all 500 servers.

Some can be at 32, some could be at 8.

16 per realm, per day, is the magic number.
Edited by Daltin on 2/8/2013 1:46 PM PST
90 Human Warrior
13880
02/08/2013 01:21 PMPosted by Huggywuggles
They will stop once their is proof or a blue post that is reasonable.


Define 'reasonable' though. People in threads like this seem to equate 'reasonable' with 'answers NAO!' and that's not reasonable in any sense of the word.


I think a sub focus of these threads is now being tacked on the main Issue. A large part of this is the voice of concern with the mounts not having been looted by anyone, despite the large quantity of time that it has been killed.

I think people want to see Blizzard finally come out and say that this is an issue. We had 2 patches worth of killing the Sha, multiple times per day, across the servers, and so many people wasting a coin for their weekly, additional chance to try and get a mount, that might be bugged. Silently buffing the mount, while it will solve the issue, isn't going to address those who feel betrayed by the fact of not being warned that the Loot Table isn't working as intended, and they have been wasting their coins for naught.

It's no longer just about an issue that has been going since the release of MoP, but also a feeling of betrayal towards the consumers and the decrease of respect people are going to have towards Blizzard. They could announce it right now, saying that the Sha isn't dropping the mount, and they will look into it to prevent anymore more loss of respect by warning people not to use your charms if you are only aiming for the mount. The longer and larger everyone goes unnoticed, the more damage is done.

As I said before, they just need to repeat the process they did when Feng wasn't dropping a certain piece of gear, I think it was a Ring,

Announce it
Fix it
90 Gnome Warrior
13000
had a chance at loot


And, THAT, is your operative word.
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