Blizzard, Sha and Galleon mounts (Part 4)

1 Human Priest
0
4 threads on this topic, no answer. 1 thread on something like /hug a worgen and you see blues everywhere... /sigh
90 Human Rogue
13355
02/08/2013 01:53 PMPosted by Huggywuggles
Is it possible to not have dropped even if it was working? Sure


And this is in direct contradiction to

The chances of it happening though are so astronomically low that it is next to impossible.


Yes, it's astronomically high, but doesn't mean that it CANNOT happen however unlikely. Most likely, I suspect Blizzard simply removed these mounts and forgot to remove them from the Dungeon Journal.


Ghostcrawler acknowledges their existence in the game in a tweet. Someone asked him if it was possible to coin the 3 boss mounts in MoP, and he replied with "It depends on which one".

By this time, it was already confirmed that Elegon's mount could be coined. A "yes" from GC would include all 3 mounts of the OP's question. A "no" , which would have been false, would have excluded Elegon's mount.

What sense would it make to be able to coin Sha, but not Galleon? Or vice versa? So from that little tweet, you can determine that you can coin Elegon's mount, but not Sha or Galleon.

Why can we not coin Sha or Galleon? Either they don't exist, and they've known about this.. or they simply opted for them to not be coinable, and their pure drop rate is bugged.

Wouldn't be surprised to find out that the drop rate numbers in the program are typoed at ".0%%" instead of ".05%" ;d
90 Gnome Warrior
13000
02/08/2013 01:56 PMPosted by Bladestorm
Key words in bold.


You're correct. However, taken in context, I'm still correct.

Look, if something has a .00001% chance to drop, as long as it HAS that chance to drop it's working correctly even though no one has gotten it yet.

Ensuring something drops correctly does NOT mean it will frequently.
90 Dwarf Paladin
15980
Ok guys, I know there is a need for info on this issue, but try keeping the following Parts on a decent timefrate apart, 3 of these in 48 hours really tells Blizz nothing but 150 players desperate or needy for answers not solutions.


Negative.

Remember back during.. oh, man, what was it, Wrath? ... when Blizz had announced on the forums that they would be implementing a new forum feature that would include the posting of peoples real life info (name and such)? And remember how the forums absolutely blew up over the issue, and in turn Blizz decided not to go through with it?

Similar concept here. If it is not shown that people Are concerned about this, and are adamant about obtaining an answer, it will be much easier for Blizz to allow this to be swept under the rug.
90 Blood Elf Warlock
16090
Hey Blizzard- I never checked and had no idea there were supposed to be mounts. I spent all my coins on chances for tier gear.

Love ya!
90 Human Warrior
7250
Just posting to keep trake :)
90 Blood Elf Monk
11050
You're correct. However, taken in context, I'm still correct.

Look, if something has a .00001% chance to drop, as long as it HAS that chance to drop it's working correctly even though no one has gotten it yet.

Ensuring something drops correctly does NOT mean it will frequently.


Blizzard, to my knowledge, has already stated they are (and I believe I'm paraphrasing here), 'monitoring the system to make sure it isn't broken' which means that the system, in all likely-hood ISN'T broken and these mounts are meant to be EXTREMELY rare sort of like Mimrion's head.

And given that world bosses are going 'tap to faction' next patch it really makes sense to me with account bound mounts, etc.


http://www.guildox.com/go/g.aspx?a=30

None have been looted. Something's up at this point.

To all you naysayers who think it's possible for this to simply not have happened, allow me to give you a lesson in statistics.It isn't even remotely imaginable.

Items off world bosses like Sha and Galleon are rolled on a per character basis, similar to the new system for LFR. Each character is given an equal chance of looting the mount.

Let's be very ridiculously conservative and assume the mount drops 0.001% of the time (1 in 100,000). This is a smaller percent drop than anything in WoW, ever. This means that every time someone kills the Sha, he or she has a 99.999% chance of not seeing the mount. Each time a Sha is killed 40 players get a chance to roll on it.

I'll assume people have been killing the Sha for 12 weeks now, at least 5 times per server, per week, yielding 60 Sha kills per realm, which in turn yields (40*60) = 2,400 looting opportunities. I feel that even the lowest pop realms reach this number, but if not, realms like Illidan have way more to compensate. Again, I'm being very conservative.

A trip to wowprogress reveals 246 US realms, and 267 EU realms, totaling 513 realms.

The Sha of Anger has been looted at least (2,400*513)= 1,231,200 times since launch. I'd bet every penny I had that it's been looted more.

Statistically, the chance of nobody getting the mount by now is .99999^1,231,200 = 0.00045%, or 1 in 222,362. That's roughly similar in magnitude to you winning the $10,000 Powerball this week, buying only three tickets.Alternatively, there is a 99.9996% chance of someone having the mount by now. This is with me being very conservative. As I increase the number of kills, this gets more and more ridiculous, because we're dealing with an exponential.

Let's be crazy and assume it's killed 10 times per week per server. Now the chances of nobody willing are 1 in 49,444,818,741. This is the chance of you winning the Powerball Jackpot every week for the next 5 years.

Have I made my point?
Edited by Sederath on 2/8/2013 2:02 PM PST
10 Pandaren Monk
0
02/08/2013 01:58 PMPosted by Huggywuggles
Key words in bold.


You're correct. However, taken in context, I'm still correct.

Look, if something has a .00001% chance to drop, as long as it HAS that chance to drop it's working correctly even though no one has gotten it yet.

Ensuring something drops correctly does NOT mean it will frequently.


This person cracks me up.

"Sure, the odds are lower than a black hole spontaneously forming in my left nostril, but it's still possible guys~! I don't care if the odds are .00000000000000000000001%, there's always that 1 at the end and that means everything is A-OK!"
90 Human Rogue
13355
Repeating food for thought because these threads are flying.

1) Precedent for loot not dropping from a boss' loot table in this game. This patch, even. See: Feng Heroic Loot.

2) Some people receive no loot, or gold, from Sha / Galleon. Is it possible that the game rolled for them to receive a mount, but due to a bug in the function of handing the mount out, nothing happens, thus creating an instance where gear is not received, and gold is not handed out due to the player "winning loot" ?

3) Blizzard announced Blingtron would drop mounts. However after X amount of time, not a single one had been obtained, just like these two mounts. Suddenly the drop rate was "buffed/hotfixed", and suddenly, not only are people getting the mounts around the world, there are several people on my server alone that have the Bling mounts

4) Is it possible that Blizzard purposely withheld the Sha/Galleon mounts until 5.2 to give people incentive to run Sha/Galleon repeatedly for new level 90s, who will undoubtedly have a hard time filling Sha groups when everyone is on the Thunder Island?

5) Millions of kills, no drops. See: #1
90 Dwarf Rogue
11080
So after reading this thread I recalled a month or so ago where right after a Galleon kill a player linked the mount in chat saying WOOOT blah blah blah... Well for reasons I'm not even sure of myself, I save all my chat logs. So I figure I'm gonna be a big shot here, find that player in the chat log and link the armory. Well... I found him or her. And, well, I looked up the armory and.... NO FREAKIN MOUNT... must've used the wowhead (or journal entry maybe? ) link in game... Why? For the love of all that's good and right in this world... why?
90 Human Priest
16130
lol, man this is at 4 parts now? What a fiasco, I'd say blizzard really messed us this time. No one appreciates a carrot on a stick to trick people into running a raid boss they don't need anything from.
90 Gnome Warrior
13000
@Sederath:

The problem with relying on that math lesson is this: It only allows for one possible outcome. That outcome is the invariable "If it hasn't happened by NOW, then something must be wrong".

Time and time again, this kind of thinking has been proven to be false.

Just because something, however rare, can happen doesn't mean it will.
90 Dwarf Paladin
15980
02/08/2013 02:05 PMPosted by Karoot
Why? For the love of all that's good and right in this world... why?


Likely because they were trolling in some sort of attempt at being funny. Possibly in order to feel better about themselves. Possibly just because they got in to the funny plate of brownies, or moms liquor cabinet.

Sad, no?
90 Orc Warrior
11140
Yes... It seem I darwn into this I use my coin to get the mount sadly no luck And !@#$ me if I try to go for Galleon allianceing keep stealing it... I be happy if Galleon show up more.

The mount them self... what are they waiting for the moon line just right sure I belive in honest luck but well... I know no one have that mount.
90 Dwarf Paladin
15980
The problem with relying on that math lesson is this: It only allows for one possible outcome. That outcome is the invariable "If it hasn't happened by NOW, then something must be wrong".

Time and time again, this kind of thinking has been proven to be false.

Just because something, however rare, can happen doesn't mean it will.


So, come this next Tuesday or perhaps the Tuesday after that, when all of a sudden people start getting these mounts, all over the world, it will all have been A-OK? Horse pucky. Load of absolute hogwash.

That kind of thinking does not fly if you have any inkling, at all, of how statistics and probability play out in the real world.
90 Orc Warrior
11140
I would love to gartz the guy who got it by now untill then I am still trying ^_^
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