Blizzard, Sha and Galleon mounts (Part 4)

100 Night Elf Hunter
AFK
11695
02/08/2013 02:05 PMPosted by Karoot
So after reading this thread I recalled a month or so ago where right after a Galleon kill a player linked the mount in chat saying WOOOT blah blah blah... Well for reasons I'm not even sure of myself, I save all my chat logs. So I figure I'm gonna be a big shot here, find that player in the chat log and link the armory. Well... I found him or her. And, well, I looked up the armory and.... NO FREAKIN MOUNT... must've used the wowhead (or journal entry maybe? ) link in game... Why? For the love of all that's good and right in this world... why?


lol I'd totally narc on her in trade chat with one of my alts, see if he can cough it up in the middle of stormwind.
1 Undead Rogue
0
Oops
Edited by Loudmusic on 2/8/2013 2:17 PM PST
90 Human Warrior
10500
-


(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
90 Blood Elf Priest
14095
@Sederath:

The problem with relying on that math lesson is this: It only allows for one possible outcome. That outcome is the invariable "If it hasn't happened by NOW, then something must be wrong".

Time and time again, this kind of thinking has been proven to be false.

Just because something, however rare, can happen doesn't mean it will.


You just don't get it.

Ten million people play this game. Sha of Anger and Galleon are looted and coined thousands of times on a weekly basis. The chances of not a single one existing thus far is so astronomically low that it is mind-bogglingly ridiculous.

Yes, it's possible, but only in the most literal of senses. It's about as possible as the sun exploding spontaneously thirty seconds from now.
Edited by Vanarela on 2/8/2013 2:23 PM PST
90 Human Rogue
13355
I can't wait for a stealth fix and, randomly, World First Heavenly Cloud Serpent appears Tuesday.

It'll be too funny.
Edited by Daltin on 2/8/2013 2:24 PM PST
90 Gnome Warrior
13000
Yes, it's possible, but only in the most literal of senses. It's about as possible as the sun exploding spontaneously thirty seconds from now.


And that's the point.

Look, here's the thing:

All we have in these threads are 'conspiracy' theories. Nothing more, nothing less. Yes, most LIKELY there's an issue somewhere, I'll cop to that. BUT demanding answers and, frankly, spamming the forums isn't going to fix anything sooner.

It's a matter of priority, really.

Mounts, for all intents and purposes, are far FAR less consequential than game design and content that works properly i.e. boss mechanics etc.

Bear in mind, Blizzard in all likely hood will NOT say a thing until they're SURE there's an issue and even then won't have an answer until they figure out WHAT the issue is and HOW they're going to fix it.

People claim it's a matter of 'respect for the player'. I disagree. I would have A LOT less faith in Blizzard if a GM or CM said, prematurely, "Yep, there's an issue!" and then had to retract that statement because someone got one/both of the mounts.
90 Blood Elf Hunter
12370
02/08/2013 01:21 PMPosted by Azeban
I don't think you understood what I was saying. When you do something that has a 1% chance over and over again, the chance of you getting the object somewhere in that course of runs increases to the limit of 100%. It's never guaranteed. Certainly not with the scheme I provided.


I am sorry, but that is not true. Each roll is independent of every other roll, so no matter at which number roll, the percent is still 1 percent. Take a coin for example. when you flip a coin, you have a 50 percent chance of it landing heads. By your logic, that would mean you would only have to flip it twice to be guaranteed a heads. You know that is not the case.
90 Blood Elf Hunter
12370
@Sederath:

The problem with relying on that math lesson is this: It only allows for one possible outcome. That outcome is the invariable "If it hasn't happened by NOW, then something must be wrong".

Time and time again, this kind of thinking has been proven to be false.

Just because something, however rare, can happen doesn't mean it will.


You just don't get it.

Ten million people play this game. Sha of Anger and Galleon are looted and coined thousands of times on a weekly basis. The chances of not a single one existing thus far is so astronomically low that it is mind-bogglingly ridiculous.

Yes, it's possible, but only in the most literal of senses. It's about as possible as the sun exploding spontaneously thirty seconds from now.


This statement is ridiculous. I agree I want to see someone link an armory. But you are saying that 10 million people play this game, so naturally 10 million people have seen this thread, or know about this thread and would have posted about it. I am not saying that a bug is not likely, but I am saying that the likelyhood of someone having it but not knowing about this thread is higher then you are giving it credit for.
90 Human Rogue
13355
For all the Amateur Sleuths we have in here, I don't think any of them have heard of Exit Polls, how few people they actually take into account, and how accurate they are.

The sheer volume of this problem, compared to exit polls, is gigantic. Exit polls can have anywhere between 1,000 to 20,000 people, and they are accurate within percentage points.

This sampling size (oh, i don't remember how many it was.. ah yes, 130,680,000 potential characters) is staggering.

Anyone arguing that this thing could still "potentially drop" is arguing for the sake of argument, trying to incite anger within those who know how ridiculous anything other than "bugged/not there" would be.

Edit: I'm literally lol at people using the "Coin Flipping" argument. Please, I'm begging this community, do not post statistics "knowledge" unless you've taken (and passed) a college level course.
Edited by Daltin on 2/8/2013 2:33 PM PST
100 Dwarf Paladin
18060
People claim it's a matter of 'respect for the player'. I disagree. I would have A LOT less faith in Blizzard if a GM or CM said, prematurely, "Yep, there's an issue!" and then had to retract that statement because someone got one/both of the mounts.


There is a massive difference between stating, "yep, there's an issue", and simply coming in here, to one of these threads and stating (in an official capacity, on the official forums), "Yes, we are indeed looking in to it, to see if there is a problem."
90 Gnome Mage
17840
There is clearly an issue. Just because its statistically possible that no one ever has gotten the mount within the frame work of the game doesnt mean that its a conspiracy theory. The highest/lowest drop rate ever to date is the big love rocket which is sitting at 0.03 on wowhead. Apply that to the number of kills that have happened since MoP live and you can infer that there is an issue. Not to mention that Sha is supposed to be simular to BH/VoA which means thats you can also infer the drop rate on the mount probably isnt mean to be stupid low. I could believe Galleons mount is around 0.1 or even 0.05 but not lower. Thinking that both mounts are 0.0001 is just beyond stupid and really shouldnt even get a responce.
90 Troll Monk
9625
Still waiting for a Blue post.... :(
10 Draenei Monk
0
Woah... didn't even know about this bug.

No wonder I haven't seen it drop at all.
90 Human Rogue
13355
02/08/2013 02:34 PMPosted by Devilmage
There is clearly an issue. Just because its statistically possible that no one ever has gotten the mount within the frame work of the game doesnt mean that its a conspiracy theory. The highest/lowest drop rate ever to date is the big love rocket which is sitting at 0.03 on wowhead. Apply that to the number of kills that have happened since MoP live and you can infer that there is an issue. Not to mention that Sha is supposed to be simular to BH/VoA which means thats you can also infer the drop rate on the mount probably isnt mean to be stupid low. I could believe Galleons mount is around 0.1 or even 0.05 but not lower. Thinking that both mounts are 0.0001 is just beyond stupid and really shouldnt even get a responce.


This guy gets it. Welcome to the Club of Reasonable Thought.
90 Blood Elf Priest
14095


You just don't get it.

Ten million people play this game. Sha of Anger and Galleon are looted and coined thousands of times on a weekly basis. The chances of not a single one existing thus far is so astronomically low that it is mind-bogglingly ridiculous.

Yes, it's possible, but only in the most literal of senses. It's about as possible as the sun exploding spontaneously thirty seconds from now.


This statement is ridiculous. I agree I want to see someone link an armory. But you are saying that 10 million people play this game, so naturally 10 million people have seen this thread, or know about this thread and would have posted about it. I am not saying that a bug is not likely, but I am saying that the likelyhood of someone having it but not knowing about this thread is higher then you are giving it credit for.


We have a source that we know pulls information from the official armoury. Unless you can prove that it is inaccurate, or provide an armoury link to someone that owns the mount, then, yes, we know beyond a reasonable doubt that no one has either of these mounts.
Edited by Vanarela on 2/8/2013 2:39 PM PST
100 Blood Elf Paladin
17735
02/08/2013 02:31 PMPosted by Ravyne
This statement is ridiculous. I agree I want to see someone link an armory. But you are saying that 10 million people play this game, so naturally 10 million people have seen this thread, or know about this thread and would have posted about it. I am not saying that a bug is not likely, but I am saying that the likelyhood of someone having it but not knowing about this thread is higher then you are giving it credit for.


What is being said is 10 million(or now 9.6mil) people play this game and while all may not have 90s there is no doubt a majority that do. It is not possible for out of all the people that have 90s(including alts) that if the mounts were ingame that not a single person that is able to learn it has not done so and been seen by anyone.

While not everyone looks at the forums there is atleast one person from each realm that cares enough about the game that checks them and i can guarantee that if anyone on any realm got the mount that atleast one person on that realm would have said something by now and linked an armory. Sorry that friend of a friend isn't evidence when it comes to something like this, link some actual proof that they exist or don't even bother trying to say otherwise.
Edited by Wilhelm on 2/8/2013 2:40 PM PST
90 Human Warlock
10545
I like to capitalize WORDS to make my point HEARD better.

In all seriousness, I'm intrigued as to what Blizz is doing right now to research into this.

And I've ran the math and taken classes in statistics, this is a problem.
Edited by Tulzurak on 2/8/2013 2:40 PM PST
90 Gnome Mage
17840


This statement is ridiculous. I agree I want to see someone link an armory. But you are saying that 10 million people play this game, so naturally 10 million people have seen this thread, or know about this thread and would have posted about it. I am not saying that a bug is not likely, but I am saying that the likelyhood of someone having it but not knowing about this thread is higher then you are giving it credit for.


We have a source that we know pulls information from the official armoury. Unless you can prove that it is inaccurate, then yes, we do know that not a single person in the world on live realms has one of these mounts.


Even more then that, we have multiple sites that do this and none are reporting a drop.
90 Human Mage
11270
02/08/2013 01:58 PMPosted by Daltin


And this is in direct contradiction to



Yes, it's astronomically high, but doesn't mean that it CANNOT happen however unlikely. Most likely, I suspect Blizzard simply removed these mounts and forgot to remove them from the Dungeon Journal.


Ghostcrawler acknowledges their existence in the game in a tweet. Someone asked him if it was possible to coin the 3 boss mounts in MoP, and he replied with "It depends on which one".

By this time, it was already confirmed that Elegon's mount could be coined. A "yes" from GC would include all 3 mounts of the OP's question. A "no" , which would have been false, would have excluded Elegon's mount.

What sense would it make to be able to coin Sha, but not Galleon? Or vice versa? So from that little tweet, you can determine that you can coin Elegon's mount, but not Sha or Galleon.

Why can we not coin Sha or Galleon? Either they don't exist, and they've known about this.. or they simply opted for them to not be coinable, and their pure drop rate is bugged.

Wouldn't be surprised to find out that the drop rate numbers in the program are typoed at ".0%%" instead of ".05%" ;d


This my friend. THIS IS OUR ANSWER. GOD ANSWERED US.
90 Night Elf Death Knight
11285
I don't think you understood what I was saying. When you do something that has a 1% chance over and over again, the chance of you getting the object somewhere in that course of runs increases to the limit of 100%. It's never guaranteed. Certainly not with the scheme I provided.


I am sorry, but that is not true. Each roll is independent of every other roll, so no matter at which number roll, the percent is still 1 percent. Take a coin for example. when you flip a coin, you have a 50 percent chance of it landing heads. By your logic, that would mean you would only have to flip it twice to be guaranteed a heads. You know that is not the case.


I think you're misreading what I'm saying. While the probability of each trial remains 1%, the chance of winning at least one of the trials out of many increases as the number of trials increases. This is why if you grind a mount week after week for years, you have a better chance than 1% of having gotten the mount, over someone who has only tried once.

If you kill a mob with a 1% drop rate, the odds of getting the drop in each trial are 1%. If you do this 100 times, the odds of each trial are still 1%. But together, the odds of at least one successful attempt amidst your hundred trials are 1-(.99^100) which equals 64%
Edited by Azeban on 2/8/2013 2:42 PM PST
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