Blizzard, Sha and Galleon mounts (Part 4)

90 Blood Elf Hunter
12370
We have a source that we know pulls information from the official armoury. Unless you can prove that it is inaccurate, then yes, we do know that not a single person in the world on live realms has one of these mounts.


Maybe I am wrong, but wasn't it proven way back in thread one that guildox takes a sample of the player pool in armory or something? Seriously, not stating it is the case, but I seem to remember someone involved closely with guildox stating something of the like. To be honest I didn't really follow it that close since I am at work

Here you go, a direct quote from someone at guildox:

"By Polar 4 days ago
My friend, you really like your mounts :)

First off, thanks for all the feedback and suggestions.

The popular mount list that we just launched is a first-cut of all of this. We have taken a statistical sample of our database rather than crunching through millions of player records. This is why you might find a few very, very rare mounts not on the list yet. I say "yet" since we are re-sampling every day and the list will grow and improve over time.

Could you list a couple of examples that are not on the list yet? I will use this data to dig a bit deeper until we find some.

As for filters, yes, we have some plans to add a few filters in there. They may not offer every choice on your list but they will help narrow the results down somewhat.

As for your comment about 95% of characters with the Abyssal Seahorse - we are looking at all the mounts of any given max-level character and this includes the account-wide mounts. As you know, the Abyssal Seahorse is picked up by completing the first few quests at level 80 in Vashj'ir. Have 95% of players done the start of Vashj'ir on one of their characters? It seems to be about right to me. In fact, I thought it might have been a little higher than that."

I am sorry, but using guildox as your definitive proof also doesn't hold up.
Edited by Ravyne on 2/8/2013 2:46 PM PST
11 Goblin Shaman
30
We have a source that we know pulls information from the official armoury. Unless you can prove that it is inaccurate, then yes, we do know that not a single person in the world on live realms has one.


The source says that, for this particular list, they used a statistical sampling instead of everyone. The list, at this point, is not all-inclusive.

"The popular mount list that we just launched is a first-cut of all of this. We have taken a statistical sample of our database rather than crunching through millions of player records. This is why you might find a few very, very rare mounts not on the list yet. I say "yet" since we are re-sampling every day and the list will grow and improve over time."

They have also said that "GuildOx is also gathering a greater sample size to try and find some people with these extra rare mounts."

Link to thread on GuildOx: http://www.guildox.com/wow/forum/thread/2082

Right now, no one has any way of knowing for sure one way or the other if the mounts have dropped. The list is currently no more accurate than players claiming they saw one in-game but don't remember the characters name to link the armory.
Edited by Nezne on 2/8/2013 2:44 PM PST
90 Troll Monk
9625
To all the people saying that it isn't bugged and that just because it hasn't dropped doesn't mean it is.

Please leave.

If something takes over 1,000,000+ Loots to get it is obvoiously:

1. Broken beyond belief.

2. Needs a higher drop rate.

3. Broken.

And yes it has been looted over 1M times.

On the highest population server there is something like 36000 level 90's.

If even HALF of them looted sha once a week thats 306,000 loots from just ONE server.

That's not counting coins.

Your telling me that in 1,000,000 loots the mount hasn't dropped once for ANYBODY in the last 4 months?

Please don't be so ignorant to belive that this isn't broken because it is.

0.05% drop rate would have dropped a LONG time ago for somebody.

I got onyxian Drake after my 11th kill and it's 0.5% drop rate.

I'm one person and I got lucky.

If 9.6M people CAN'T get lucky after 17 kills and get a single mount then something is wrong.
90 Human Rogue
13355
02/08/2013 02:42 PMPosted by Ravyne
We have a source that we know pulls information from the official armoury. Unless you can prove that it is inaccurate, then yes, we do know that not a single person in the world on live realms has one of these mounts.


Maybe I am wrong, but wasn't it proven way back in thread one that guildox takes a sample of the player pool in armory or something? Seriously, not stating it is the case, but I seem to remember someone involved closely with guildox stating something of the like. To be honest I didn't really follow it that close since I am at work


Exit polls use a sample size far smaller than millions. Their size is in the thousands. And they are very, very, accurate.

Guildox's drop rates are as close to the truth as you can get without having the literal exact number from Blizzard's in-house database.
I don't think you understood what I was saying. When you do something that has a 1% chance over and over again, the chance of you getting the object somewhere in that course of runs increases to the limit of 100%. It's never guaranteed. Certainly not with the scheme I provided.


I am sorry, but that is not true. Each roll is independent of every other roll, so no matter at which number roll, the percent is still 1 percent. Take a coin for example. when you flip a coin, you have a 50 percent chance of it landing heads. By your logic, that would mean you would only have to flip it twice to be guaranteed a heads. You know that is not the case.


What he said was not precise, but it was reasonably accurate. If you flip a coin 2x the odds of it coming up heads one of those times is 75%. Flip it 3x and the odds increase to 87.5%. Keep flipping it and as the number of flips "increases without bound" the odds approach the limit of 100%. That's basic calculus.
Edited by Indrik on 2/8/2013 2:47 PM PST
90 Blood Elf Hunter
12370
02/08/2013 02:46 PMPosted by Daltin


Maybe I am wrong, but wasn't it proven way back in thread one that guildox takes a sample of the player pool in armory or something? Seriously, not stating it is the case, but I seem to remember someone involved closely with guildox stating something of the like. To be honest I didn't really follow it that close since I am at work


Exit polls use a sample size far smaller than millions. Their size is in the thousands. And they are very, very, accurate.

Guildox's drop rates are as close to the truth as you can get without having the literal exact number from Blizzard's in-house database.


Except Guildox themselves clearly state that mounts may be missing. It is in their quotes. See above.
100 Troll Shaman
17270
For the math people- are you considering alts in your math too? I was running it three times a week for about two months, and using coins on those toons, I was saving coins for it... Or are you clumping it all together in the factors too?
85 Dwarf Mage
10940
I just noticed the mods are pretty active deleting some posts in this thread.. I wonder what those posts were...
90 Human Rogue
13355
02/08/2013 02:48 PMPosted by Dreamchaser
For the math people- are you considering alts in your math too? I was running it three times a week for about two months, and using coins on those toons, I was saving coins for it... Or are you clumping it all together in the factors too?


I took them into consideration, yes. I believe others have as well. That'd be the only way that Sha could die so frequently (multiple times per hour).
90 Blood Elf Priest
13895
Heap big buyers remorse?, IMO there is no reason Ever to have a droprate on RNG less than 5%, any lower is not even worth adding to the game.
90 Pandaren Monk
4270
02/08/2013 02:13 PMPosted by Landusk
I would love to gartz the guy who got it by now untill then I am still trying ^_^


If I were you, I'd stop trying for a little while until this dispute is resolved.
90 Blood Elf Hunter
12370
02/08/2013 02:46 PMPosted by Indrik


I am sorry, but that is not true. Each roll is independent of every other roll, so no matter at which number roll, the percent is still 1 percent. Take a coin for example. when you flip a coin, you have a 50 percent chance of it landing heads. By your logic, that would mean you would only have to flip it twice to be guaranteed a heads. You know that is not the case.


What he said was not precise, but it was reasonably accurate. If you flip a coin 2x the odds of it coming up heads one of those times is 75%. Flip it 3x and the odds increase to 87.5%. Keep flipping it and as the number of flips "increases without bound" the odds approach the limit of 100%. That's basic calculus.


Actually it isn't basic calculus, it is gambler's fallacy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

Each flip of the coin is independent of any previous flips, and you still have a .50 percent chance of flipping a heads.
90 Night Elf Death Knight
11285
02/08/2013 02:48 PMPosted by Dreamchaser
For the math people- are you considering alts in your math too? I was running it three times a week for about two months, and using coins on those toons, I was saving coins for it... Or are you clumping it all together in the factors too?


We're just taking an estimated number of Sha kills. Whether the characters are alts or mains doesn't matter.
90 Human Rogue
13355
02/08/2013 02:48 PMPosted by Mirage
I just noticed the mods are pretty active deleting some posts in this thread.. I wonder what those posts were...


I do wonder, as well. This thread has been void of trolling, and everyone has been having adult-quality conversations.

Yeah, there's some argument over statistics, but everyone is well within casual-adult behavior here. There hasn't been any name calling or anything like that. Curious, indeed.
90 Night Elf Death Knight
11285


What he said was not precise, but it was reasonably accurate. If you flip a coin 2x the odds of it coming up heads one of those times is 75%. Flip it 3x and the odds increase to 87.5%. Keep flipping it and as the number of flips "increases without bound" the odds approach the limit of 100%. That's basic calculus.


Actually it isn't basic calculus, it is gambler's fallacy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

Each flip of the coin is independent of any previous flips, and you still have a .50 percent chance of flipping a heads.


In the next trial. Not overall. You don't seem to realize this. The gambler's fallacy is that they will win in the next trial. We're saying overall.
Edited by Azeban on 2/8/2013 2:52 PM PST
100 Human Paladin
15720
02/08/2013 02:27 PMPosted by Huggywuggles
Yes, it's possible, but only in the most literal of senses. It's about as possible as the sun exploding spontaneously thirty seconds from now.


And that's the point.

Look, here's the thing:

All we have in these threads are 'conspiracy' theories. Nothing more, nothing less. Yes, most LIKELY there's an issue somewhere, I'll cop to that. BUT demanding answers and, frankly, spamming the forums isn't going to fix anything sooner.

It's a matter of priority, really.

Mounts, for all intents and purposes, are far FAR less consequential than game design and content that works properly i.e. boss mechanics etc.

Bear in mind, Blizzard in all likely hood will NOT say a thing until they're SURE there's an issue and even then won't have an answer until they figure out WHAT the issue is and HOW they're going to fix it.

People claim it's a matter of 'respect for the player'. I disagree. I would have A LOT less faith in Blizzard if a GM or CM said, prematurely, "Yep, there's an issue!" and then had to retract that statement because someone got one/both of the mounts.


I usually have a pretty good respect for your posts Huggy, but;
This is all from your POV. Many people care more about collecting things in this game than raiding. Many people only raid for their chance to acquire new pretty vanity items. Mounts can be as important as boss mechanics etc. Blizzard realizes this, that is why pet battles were introduced (though I still don't understand why we don't have a 200 mount achieve).

A simple "we're looking at it, and when we have answer we'll get back to you- but not before" would get rid of a lot of angst.
02/08/2013 02:48 PMPosted by Dreamchaser
For the math people- are you considering alts in your math too? I was running it three times a week for about two months, and using coins on those toons, I was saving coins for it... Or are you clumping it all together in the factors too?


If every account has a 90 and they all run sha once a week thats 9.6 million player-kills a week. Now I know some people dont have a 90, but some others have multiples (as you say). I think 9.6 million is a reasonable estimate.
90 Worgen Death Knight
9765
I do wonder, as well. This thread has been void of trolling, and everyone has been having adult-quality conversations.

Yeah, there's some argument over statistics, but everyone is well within casual-adult behavior here. There hasn't been any name calling or anything like that. Curious, indeed.

It's possible you just haven't seen it, because all the posts were deleted.
90 Blood Elf Hunter
11430
02/08/2013 02:48 PMPosted by Mirage
I just noticed the mods are pretty active deleting some posts in this thread.. I wonder what those posts were...


Probably trolls or people causing a ruckus. Look at it this way, they are listening, you say how do I know...because they are not deleting or locking these threads. They are looking into the problem I guarantee it. Just keep to the issue and be helpful with any info you can, and they will keep it open
90 Dwarf Warrior
14635
02/08/2013 02:42 PMPosted by Ravyne
I am sorry, but using guildox as your definitive proof also doesn't hold up.
It was never used as definitive proof, it was used as a reference. The proof came from 60k+ thread views across all the threads and the thread someone made over on mmochamp, and the over 2k responses where nobody has been able to prove they have ever dropped. Besides "my brothers friends cousins dad has one"

Is it concrete evidence? Of course not, but it is quite close.
Edited by Bladestorm on 2/8/2013 2:53 PM PST
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