Stock Up On Ghost Iron Bars?

90 Night Elf Priest
7285
Good evening!

I remember seeing somewhere (and now can't find it) that there was a profession in 5.2 that had a number of items added in which the mats were Ghost Iron Bars. I'm assuming that GIB's will be in high demand at the start of the patch?
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90 Night Elf Priest
7285
Bump.
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100 Gnome Priest
13815
First, this is the professions forum, not the general forum. Bumping a thread after an hour probably won't make any difference. :)

Second, this might not be a bad idea. If I weren't so risk-averse I'd try it myself.
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90 Night Elf Priest
7285
First, I am asking a question regarding a profession, so I am in the right forum.

Second, I bump a thread if I don't get a response in the hopes that eventually someone will respond.

Third, I was hoping other miners would chime in to say if they have seen the same thing or at least talk about their strategy heading in to 5.2.
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Bots always (I think) break with a new patch so stocking up on ores is always a good idea.

As far as the new daily cooldown I dont expect it to do a great deal to demand. It's just an extra stack or so per person per day, compared to current demand from prospecting I don't expect a noticable jump.
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90 Human Rogue
0
02/09/2013 12:15 AMPosted by Ortonius
First, I am asking a question regarding a profession, so I am in the right forum.


He was saying bumping in the prof forum doesn't work well, because of its low population.
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90 Human Paladin
8575
Good evening!

I remember seeing somewhere (and now can't find it) that there was a profession in 5.2 that had a number of items added in which the mats were Ghost Iron Bars. I'm assuming that GIB's will be in high demand at the start of the patch?


You did read this correctly, and the profession was for Blacksmithing. However, I'm VERY uncertain as to what this will end up come live 5.2. Even so, there are a few things to consider about "stocking up".

Even though there will be an increase in need for Ghost Iron ore and bars (especially with the BS and Engineering recipes coming), there will also be an increase in supply. This will be due to people seeing it as a good time to sell.

Here's the kicker though - some of these people farmed for their ores/bars, and don't need to sell at a pre-determined price set by what they have invested.
So, the open market could remain stable, increase, or decrease. Chances are there will be an inflation of supply at a higher price right away. Followed by a decline of prices to a leveling off point (fast or slow decline is server dependant). Where the leveling off point is located better be 5% above what you paid for those there bars.. otherwise, you lost the AH.

http://www.wowhead.com/news=210415/5-2-ptr-blacksmithing-leveling-revamp-megaera-video
Edited by Nuliea on 2/9/2013 8:47 PM PST
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90 Undead Warlock
8220
I think the price of the ore after the patch will depend on two things I think

- How many people are actually going to want to level blacksmithing immediately after the patch
- How many people decide they can make some gold with this and stockpile ore

I think that these two things will mean that the price will only go up slightly
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100 Dwarf Hunter
20585
Legendary quest line continues in the patch, with a requirement of 40 trillium bars. I'da thought this would be the bars of choice to speculate in if you are into doing that sort of thing.
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80 Blood Elf Death Knight
11715
02/11/2013 05:37 PMPosted by Dakyras
Legendary quest line continues in the patch, with a requirement of 40 trillium bars. I'da thought this would be the bars of choice to speculate in if you are into doing that sort of thing.


Trillium can be made from GI bars without a CD so the cost of the bars themselves heavily influences Trillium. In this case since GI ore is also used by JC for prospecting you essentially have 3 states in which GI ore can be sold with differing levels of additional processing and doors which close and others which open at each level.

The reality of finding an alchemist to xmute your 400 GI bars into 40 Trillium (+ you might get some bonuses) is simpler than finding someone to make the 400 GI bars if you buy ore since even though it is afk time that is annoying, though simply buying the Trillium is the simplest.

Trillium as an investment has the downside of low barrier to entry and reasonable proc rates on the xmute - one scenario is the player who buys the 400 GI bars to have his trillium made then lists his procs to recoup costs effectively lowering the value of trilium, so you can also invest in this way and make profits from the procs but essentially you are gambling that the market doesnt understand where trillium bars come from and that you will have a better than average proc.

So perhaps GI ore is better to stockpile since all the potential is there but that assumes that people wont pay for convenience - I know for a fact this is overthinking it since I wanted to use this as an excercise in doing so but that doesnt change that the logic is there.

Any stockpiling is a gamble and me personally I will be stocking my own supply in an attempt to hedge against any potential price spikes but I do not see this as being a larger than average margin unless you are dealing in extreme volumes and have dedicated suppliers rather than buying off AH.

Apologies for wall of text but I enjoyed it so there is that.
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23 Undead Priest
340
I remember seeing somewhere (and now can't find it) that there was a profession in 5.2 that had a number of items added in which the mats were Ghost Iron Bars. I'm assuming that GIB's will be in high demand at the start of the patch?

Correct. Blacksmithing is being changed so, if you are level 85+, you can level your blacksmithing from level 1 simply by using Ghost Iron bars.

That way you don't need to farm/buy copper, tin, iron, thorium, saronite, etc. In theory those will tank, and ghost iron ore will go up. The sequence takes a LOT of ghost iron ore.
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90 Draenei Paladin
6255
Good evening!

I remember seeing somewhere (and now can't find it) that there was a profession in 5.2 that had a number of items added in which the mats were Ghost Iron Bars. I'm assuming that GIB's will be in high demand at the start of the patch?


From a decade of experience i can advice you the following.... do not stockpile anything unless you are getting it for free... meaning that you go out and mine... if you are paying for the stock pile you stand to get burned... in the past i have done it, empty the AH of item X.
4/10 i manage a brake even
4/10 major loss
2/10 i manage to make profit
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90 Tauren Death Knight
8980
From a decade of experience i can advice you the following.... do not stockpile anything unless you are getting it for free... meaning that you go out and mine... if you are paying for the stock pile you stand to get burned... in the past i have done it, empty the AH of item X.
4/10 i manage a brake even
4/10 major loss
2/10 i manage to make profit

do not stockpile anything unless you are getting it for free... meaning that you go out and mine...

free

No, no, no, no no.

If you mine -- if you grind -- if you farm -- if you spend ANY amount of time to acquire a good, then that good is NOT free. Don't you listen to any of the goblins saying how "Time is money, friend"? It's true. How much value you put on your time may vary person to person, but the time you spent farming COULD have been spent doing some other activity, and so it is valuable.

If you're stockpiling from farming and the price tanks, you're still affected by that just as if you had been stockpiling from buying up cheap auctions.

Ugh. On the D&R board it's "my LFR loot didn't drop," and on this board it's "farmed things are free." Can't stand it.

**EDIT** fixed the broken quote tag.
Edited by Tendays on 2/12/2013 1:44 PM PST
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90 Draenei Paladin
6255
Ugh. On the D&R board it's "my LFR loot didn't drop," and on this board it's "farmed things are free." Can't stand it.


If I may.. I need to ask you are you *****d, or simply pretending real hard? You missed my point by enough for me to further inquire if our minds are even in the same solar system.

First and foremost the word "free" indicated that NO currency was expended... does not account for time. Second if you mine 1000 Ghost iron ore, and sell now for X amount.. versus waiting and selling for Y amount no matter the difference in X and Y you are still in the green.
While if you buy 1000 ore for X for resell, and come 5.2 the cost changes to Y. Unless Y is greater than X you are at a loss.

As such my advice was, if you are planing on buying to stockpile now with idea to resell latter you may get burned... while if you are planing on mining to stockpile you will be in the green all the same.

As for the goblins they do say "time is money", but the point you miss is that you are the one that put's a price on your time. For you 1h IRL may be equal to 1000g, for me 500g, for next guy maybe worth 50g.......
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90 Tauren Death Knight
8980
Ugh. On the D&R board it's "my LFR loot didn't drop," and on this board it's "farmed things are free." Can't stand it.


If I may.. I need to ask you are you *****d, or simply pretending real hard? You missed my point by enough for me to further inquire if our minds are even in the same solar system.

I would say neither *****d or pretending, but let's play this through and see what we find.

First and foremost the word "free" indicated that NO currency was expended... does not account for time.

This is a colloquially-accepted, but highly deceptive, use of the word "free." In its most general sense, "free" means "without cost," where cost is whatever must be expended to gain a thing. You're correct that in a farming case you are not expending currency, but you are misleading (or mistaken) to infer that a farming case implies no cost.

Second if you mine 1000 Ghost iron ore, and sell now for X amount.. versus waiting and selling for Y amount no matter the difference in X and Y you are still in the green.
While if you buy 1000 ore for X for resell, and come 5.2 the cost changes to Y. Unless Y is greater than X you are at a loss.

On the face of it you are correct, but this line of thinking is dangerous. Going back to my comment about cost not necessarily involving currency: while you will still be "in the green" from a currency standpoint when you look at your gold counter before and after selling your farmed ghost iron, that's the wrong comparison to be making. You should instead be considering what your gold counter could have been if you had spent your time on some other endeavor rather than farming -- THAT is the X vs Y comparison that matters here (gold after selling off ore farmed prior to 5.2, verses gold after selling off ore bought up prior to 5.2). You can't (or rather, you shouldn't, I guess nothing stops you though) look only at the ghost iron portion of your income in a vacuum; in the time that you saved by NOT farming all that ghost iron, you could presumably have been doing other things that could also make you money -- or things that you enjoyed -- instead of flying around looking for veins.

As such my advice was, if you are planing on buying to stockpile now with idea to resell latter you may get burned... while if you are planing on mining to stockpile you will be in the green all the same.

If you stockpile PERIOD you may get burned. Whether you're farming or buying up, you're playing a market. All farming does is hide the cost of collecting materials behind your clock.

As for the goblins they do say "time is money", but the point you miss is that you are the one that put's a price on your time. For you 1h IRL may be equal to 1000g, for me 500g, for next guy maybe worth 50g.......

I'll give you that we put differing values on time based on what we like doing. I know some people enjoy farming, say between queues or whatnot, and so it isn't so big an issue for them to fly around collecting ore. For me, I get very little time to actually be online, so it's very expensive to me to spend my time farming instead of doing other gameplay. That said, if you're trying to be objective, time-value of money is how much money you could be making by doing some other activity instead of whatever it is you're doing. You can figure out how much farming is worth -- how much ghost iron do I collect, and how much will it sell for, in how much time I'm spending -- and if the price of ghost iron tanks, then you've just "lost" a chunk of that value you had. Just because it doesn't show up as a reduction in your gold count doesn't do anything to change the fact that it is still a loss.

Does that explain better? I'm legitimately interested in this conversation (being an Economics major and a Statistics masters graduate and working in Tax and Finance Analytics makes these sorts of things fascinating to me), so I apologize if I came off as aggressive anywhere in there.

Your point (as I understand it) was that farming is a safer way to avoid "losing money" on a deal. Hopefully I've better illustrated why I disagree with your basic premise, and shown why I think that way of thinking is misleading and destructive.

**EDIT** fixed formatting around quotes.

**SECOND EDIT** I came up with one possible advantage farming has over purchasing. If you are restricting yourself only to what you can collect through your own brute force, you are protecting yourself from substantial losses. That said, you are also denying yourself any opportunity to make substantial gains. So perhaps farming is a method of risk mitigation, for people who aren't knowledgeable about or confident in their markets (or people who are risk averse and don't like to see themselves "lose" money). So there's that. But it doesn't change the underlying economics; it's just a self-control tool.
Edited by Tendays on 2/12/2013 2:05 PM PST
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100 Orc Hunter
20565
First and foremost the word "free" indicated that NO currency was expended... does not account for time.


You should account for time. Gold is only worth what you buy with it. Time is limited, and once spent, gone forever.
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100 Worgen Rogue
16325
Farming an item does NOT make it free. If you want to put a value on the time you spent simply take the amount of an item you gather, multiply that by the current AH price and divide it by the amount of time it took you to gather said items.(ie. Let's you gather 20 stacks of ghost iron in 2 hours of mining and stacks of ghost iron are selling for 50 gold a stack on average on your server. So: (20x50g)/2 hours=a value of 500g an hour for your time and that doesn't even take into account what you could have been doing instead). Whether you farm the stack of ore or buy it off the AH it has a value of 50g, this isn't debatable, because if you buy it, it would cost you 50g, if you farmed it and don't sell it, it cost you 50g.
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