RIP Arcane... Hello Fire My Old Friend

90 Worgen Mage
10505
So the lastest nerf to Arcane on the PTR looks to be Blizzard's answer to the fact they just don't know how to fix Mage Classes. So just like Fire in the past they Nerf it so no one uses it. But hey wait what is this. Massive crit gear including a Trinket that will give us bursts of 100% crit in 5.2?!?! And with multi target boss fights and tons of movement required?!?!

Hello Fire Spec we've missed you
Edited by Draagun on 2/15/2013 10:33 AM PST
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100 Troll Mage
17020
Why is it RIP arcane?
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100 Blood Elf Mage
18255
We have no idea yet if it is a "nerf". It's possible, but I fail to see why you would say "RIP arcane."

I'm sympathetic to going back to fire, largely because I don't know if I want to deal with the learning curve for what is essentially a new spec. But it is more than silly to say "RIP" at this point.
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90 Gnome Mage
15265
Arcane will still be the top single-target dps spec come 5.2. All they've done was shrink the dps difference from 25% to 5-10%.

There's a decent chance that Fire will scale well enough to equal or surpass it once heroic gear is obtained, though that remains uncertain for now.
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90 Worgen Mage
10505
After spending a little time with a mage named Blatty from some random guild named Method and while on said person's Twitch channel we spent quite some time doing something called Theorycrafting. We then took into the account out PTR testing and the gear that will be made available. The conclusion is based on the current PTR Arcane will be the worst, Frost will still be bad and Fire will own once we get enough 5.2 gear.
Edited by Draagun on 2/15/2013 10:54 AM PST
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100 Worgen Mage
13375
02/15/2013 10:33 AMPosted by Hiroran
Why is it RIP arcane?


We're assuming that Blizz will royally screw up spec balance like they did with the 5.1 nerf to fire, resulting in arcane becoming a non-viable spec.

Blizzard's record on these things is hit or miss. At this point I'd give 50-50 chance on whether arcane becomes useless. Sounds like they are still trying wildly different number adjustments to arcane right now.

Yesterday they were saying they had bumped arcane blast back up to +50% damage and +150% mana cost per stack, capping at 4 stacks. But, they had reduced arcane blast and arcane missile's damage by 22% and barrage's damage by 13%.

Some napkin math on that:
6 stack arcane blast on live: 6 stack at +25% per stack = 250% fully stacked.
4 stack arcane blast mentioned yesterday: 4 stack at +50% per stack =300% fully stacked, but reduce by 22% due to nerf to unstacked AB = 234% (6% lower than the 250% on live)

Result is that fully stacked AB and AM would hit for 6% less damage than on live, but the stack would stack faster. Arcane Barrage would hit for approximately 3% less than on live.

With the removal of scorch from arcane spec, reduced mana regen of rune of power, and higher mana cost of fully stacked AB, it will no longer be possible to maintain a fully-stacked AB debuff. Arcane mages will be forced to constantly reset their stacks to avoid draining their mana pool. This alone is probably an additional 15% nerf to dps.

Combined, the nerfs to arcane will probably be at least 20%. It is highly likely that fire will pull well ahead, especially with all the crit gear available next tier.
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90 Human Mage
8645
I didn't know Frost was bad. *shrug*
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90 Troll Mage
14395
02/15/2013 10:51 AMPosted by Draagun
After spending a little time with a mage named Blatty from some random guild named Method and while on said person's Twitch channel we spent quite some time doing something called Theorycrafting. We then took into the account out PTR testing and the gear that will be made available. The conclusion is based on the current PTR Arcane will be the worst, Frost will still be bad and Fire will own once we get enough 5.2 gear.


Did your little something called Theorycrafting include the fact that they are constantly and repetitively iterating on the numbers and scalars of all three specs? Oh and grats, you hung out with an internet person and did internet things!
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100 Troll Mage
17020
We're assuming that Blizz will royally screw up spec balance like they did with the 5.1 nerf to fire, resulting in arcane becoming a non-viable spec.


You are assuming on something that almost every other day a new change gets added/reverted. Instead of creating/supporting getting in an uproar why dont we wait until actual numbers come out on the topic.
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90 Troll Mage
11460
By the logic I can see here about stat scaling...wouldn't by that logic say the mastery from all that gear make up for the nerf to Arcane and make it hit like a Cannon? (Just a thought)

Either Way, Fire, Arcane, and Frost are getting extra stat values from the 5.2 raid tier. But we shall see the effect usage of each on each fight. We shall see how 5.2 fairs, there still a week or so left until the estimated release. but this is no way a RIP Moment for Arcane, it will have it's spot in the sun in some fights (From my research).
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90 Worgen Mage
10505
Yes Hiroran it's all speculation, but an educated guess is still a hypothesis. Mine is that Arcane is done for now and that Fire is our new PVE spec. Have a nice day ;)
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90 Troll Mage
9620
Is this the same type of theorycrafting that brings you to play arcane so well this tier?

http://raidbots.com/epeenbot/us/sargeras/draagun/
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90 Gnome Mage
15265
Oh snap, got called out for his deeps!

Anyway, simple iteration on Target dummies while raidbuffed indicates that at the beginning of the tier arcane will be ahead of either of the other two specs. (And I'm not talking about randomly cleaving a dummy here and there for two minutes; I'm talking about 30 minutes of straight dps rotation only with self-procs and without heroism, doing about 250 million damage on a non-debuffed dummy for each spec and each playstyle)

As for later in the tier, I have no idea how that will scale.
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90 Human Mage
Ego
9780
I like how everyone who says RIP <spec> Doesn't actually go to the PTR and test it and just assumes based on math and figurative numbers.
Also I don't know if it was mentioned anywhere here so if it is im repeating it: The trinket that gives you 100% crit only lasts for like 4 seconds. However I can't findwhere the internal cooldown is on it. Either way, the buff only lasts for like 4 seconds so thats like what 2 casts? 3 with alot of haste?
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02/15/2013 12:12 PMPosted by Draagun
Yes Hiroran it's all speculation, but an educated guess is still a hypothesis. Mine is that Arcane is done for now and that Fire is our new PVE spec. Have a nice day ;)


Barking up the wrong tree. Hiroran has trouble with basic mathematical and statistical analysis concepts. I don't think you want to get into something complicated like hypotheses. :)

I like how everyone who says RIP <spec> Doesn't actually go to the PTR and test it and just assumes based on math and figurative numbers.
Also I don't know if it was mentioned anywhere here so if it is im repeating it: The trinket that gives you 100% crit only lasts for like 4 seconds. However I can't findwhere the internal cooldown is on it. Either way, the buff only lasts for like 4 seconds so thats like what 2 casts? 3 with alot of haste?


Well..you see...this game is based on mathematical algorithms to determine many things: including damage. Silly us for 'assuming' based on tweaks to these algorithms that have been explicitly defined in the patch notes. Nothing figurative at all.

Blizzard has a clear goal in mind. They're not really interested in what we want. They want the weaving aspect out of arcane completely. The way they are going to do that is the scorch removal and now the arcane charge cost for invocation weaving. Their way to compensate is to decrease ramp up time and tweak the damage/mana cost of AB. They still do not realize that, if they want us to cast ABarr to clear our stacks, then they need to make it worthwhile cast. Currently, they went in the opposite direction and nerfed Abarr coefficients.

Pretty strong evidence to suggest where we're headed.
Edited by Hakuren on 2/16/2013 3:43 AM PST
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90 Troll Mage
10435
stop trolling and go play fire on the ptr. It's still awful single target.
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100 Troll Mage
17020
02/16/2013 03:37 AMPosted by Hakuren
Barking up the wrong tree. Hiroran has trouble with basic mathematical and statistical analysis concepts. I don't think you want to get into something complicated like hypotheses. :)


I have no idea what you are referencing but I am quite good at math and statistical concepts.

02/16/2013 03:37 AMPosted by Hakuren
Currently, they went in the opposite direction and nerfed Abarr coefficients.


You mention I am bad at math and statistical concepts yet you fail when you mention this.

This would be a factor if they didn't also nerf all the other skills. But they nerfed missiles by about the same amount iirc.

Edit: I think I know what you are referring to, but yet you're still wrong even on that topic.
Edited by Hiroran on 2/16/2013 9:09 PM PST
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02/16/2013 08:26 PMPosted by Hiroran
Barking up the wrong tree. Hiroran has trouble with basic mathematical and statistical analysis concepts. I don't think you want to get into something complicated like hypotheses. :)


I have no idea what you are referencing but I am quite good at math and statistical concepts.


I would rethink your major. :| Taking an introduction to statistical methods course doesn't really qualify as 'good at statistical concepts'.

02/16/2013 08:26 PMPosted by Hiroran
Currently, they went in the opposite direction and nerfed Abarr coefficients.


You mention I am bad at math and statistical concepts yet you fail when you mention this.

This would be a factor if they didn't also nerf all the other skills. But they nerfed missiles by about the same amount iirc.

Edit: I think I know what you are referring to, but yet you're still wrong even on that topic.


Grasping at straws really doesn't fit your stubborn personality. Nerfing coefficients has nothing to do with my point. Please reread. No, you will not be handed the information. It's right in the post.

Nerfing ABarr, something they are trying to encourage us to use, demonstrates that the development team really has no clue what they're doing in regards to arcane balance. Their goal has always been for us to clear our charges and they are trying extremely hard to pigeonhole us into doing so. If they want us to clear charges, all they have to do is make ABarr appealing. They have never done so.
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1 Troll Rogue
0
02/17/2013 03:07 AMPosted by Hakuren


I have no idea what you are referencing but I am quite good at math and statistical concepts.


I would rethink your major. :| Taking an introduction to statistical methods course doesn't really qualify as 'good at statistical concepts'.



You mention I am bad at math and statistical concepts yet you fail when you mention this.

This would be a factor if they didn't also nerf all the other skills. But they nerfed missiles by about the same amount iirc.

Edit: I think I know what you are referring to, but yet you're still wrong even on that topic.


Grasping at straws really doesn't fit your stubborn personality. Nerfing coefficients has nothing to do with my point. Please reread. No, you will not be handed the information. It's right in the post.

Nerfing ABarr, something they are trying to encourage us to use, demonstrates that the development team really has no clue what they're doing in regards to arcane balance. Their goal has always been for us to clear our charges and they are trying extremely hard to pigeonhole us into doing so. If they want us to clear charges, all they have to do is make ABarr appealing. They have never done so.


There's a reason Abarr has never been appealing. It's called PvP, sadly.

Furthermore, at this point all they really want is to lower arcane's damage, funfactor be damned.
They did it with fire in a hotfix, a day after an accidental buff, supposed to be a nerf, clearly untested.

Blizzard doesn't put as much stock in a fun spec as you or I would. They are more concerned with outright balance first and foremost, and then if they can make it fun along the way, they will.
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