How about that increased chance?

100 Human Paladin
11940
Here are some numbers for people to chew on.

Chance to win loot (no coin): 30%
Chance to win loot (original roll and coin): 51%

So what if you're looking to win one specific piece of gear from a boss?

If you use your original roll and coin and if the boss has for your spec...
...one piece: 51%
...two pieces: 25.5%
...three pieces: 17%
...four pieces: 12.75%

So if you're trying to win a Sha-touched weapon and the boss has three possible items for your spec then even if you use your coin you only have a 17% chance to get the weapon.

Let's say I'm a Mistweaver monk and I want Jinya, Orb of the Waterspeaker [http://www.wowdb.com/items/86893-jinya-orb-of-the-waterspeaker] from Lei Shi but she's also got a monk tier shoulder token and a spirit belt that I don't want. How many attempts (weekly boss attempts and coin rolls combined) do I need to have a reasonable chance of getting that one specific item?

1 attempt: 10%
2 attempts: 19%
3 attempts: 27.1%
4 attempts: 34.39%
5 attempts: 40.95%
6 attempts: 46.86%
7 attempts: 52.17%
8 attempts: 56.95%
9 attempts: 61.13%
10 attempts: 65.13%
11 attempts: 68.62%
12 attempts: 71.76%

I stopped at 12 attempts because earlier in this thread I read that somebody used 11 coins in a single week for one boss (I don't remember which one and what they were looking for) and still didn't get anything. Assuming that boss had three items for his/her spec then this person fell on the bad side of a 70/30 split and has nothing to show for their work save for 342 gold. Less once you count repair bills.


Well hello there, gambler's fallacy!
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90 Human Priest
10765
Hyjinx
90 Orc Shaman
Might
12825


I got nothing but a necklace and boots I didn't need. So glad I started gearing this alt -_-

Can you PLEASE make the system smarter to detect what gear you're wearing. And have the higher ilevel gear you NEED more likely to drop

No.

Nice enchants, gems, and reforging. Lucky characters like that can enter raids in the first place.




no cause that would guarantee loot in LFR when loot has NEVER and will NEVER be guaranteed


You're all arguing with his numbers and not his model. Let's say the chance of a drop per boss is 3% and you roll every week on the same boss. Checking your roll history, the loot code increases the percentage of likelihood that a roll will be successful by [roll*1.000x] where x=number of previous rolls. It could be an incremental change but statistically, for the whole toon population on a given server, a significant increase in drops.


no i was saying there shouldnt be a point where u know something is gonna drop for u
that breaks the game

also if u guys are so upset about not getting loot
join a normal raid or something
check openraid
or join a guild

there are so many ways to raid besides LFR
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100 Worgen Death Knight
13650
Just finished my Terrace run...and...

IT DROPPED!!!
IT DROPPED!!!
IT DROPPED!!!


Shin'ka, Execution of Dominion

I'm in shock...

Now I need to rune this beast up and do some reforging.

SOOOOO HAPPY right now!
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100 Worgen Death Knight
13650
And yes, I had to use a coin. This was my 5th time killing Sha of Fear this week.
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100 Dwarf Paladin
15370
Well hello there, gambler's fallacy!


I'm not sure I get the intent of your statement. Each attempt is an independent roll of the dice but the more attempts you make the more likely you are that one of them will have netted you the item you are looking for. What did I miss?
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96 Night Elf Warrior
9385
Grats!

And now everyone has learned that if you write a forum thread and get a blue, your item drops! Time to start a thread for Glove, Leg, and Chest Tier drops!
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100 Tauren Warrior
7605
ALL good things come to those who wait... patiently (bad things, too, but that's just the way it is).
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100 Blood Elf Priest
21230
Chance to win loot (no coin): 30%


Where did you get this number from?
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Know the feeling. On my Druid I've spent ~15 elder charms this week on Tsulong and Lei Shi and no shoulders or trinket. In fact, nothing but gold excepting one duplicate weapon drop. Had to stop rolling on Tsulong because the purpose of my many runs is to get 2p t14 (resto druid) and I'm running out of tokens to roll with.

This is after spending 2-3 coins in previous weeks, of course (sometimes I saved one for Sha of Anger).
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90 Orc Shaman
13550
You're all arguing with his numbers and not his model. Let's say the chance of a drop per boss is 3% and you roll every week on the same boss. Checking your roll history, the loot code increases the percentage of likelihood that a roll will be successful by [roll*1.000x] where x=number of previous rolls. It could be an incremental change but statistically, for the whole toon population on a given server, a significant increase in drops.


What you're missing is that developers don't want "a significant increase in drops."

If they did, they would just raise the base loot %.
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90 Worgen Warrior
7800
Got my axe from a regular drop on my first terrace run of the week. No coin needed.

Was pretty boss.
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100 Blood Elf Priest
20120
Been trying to get the last tier piece from LFR for like 3 months. Choice of head or chest, either one would do.

So I signed and got into yet another Empress LFR, with zero extra coins. Gold from first two bosses, as usual. Then BOOM, my dress token dropped with a solitary roll chance.

I don't ever have to do 5.1 LFR again!! (k fine, still need valor for other things but I don't HAVE to. =)

Thank you 5.2 patch!
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100 Human Paladin
11940
03/09/2013 02:36 PMPosted by Malverot
Well hello there, gambler's fallacy!


I'm not sure I get the intent of your statement. Each attempt is an independent roll of the dice but the more attempts you make the more likely you are that one of them will have netted you the item you are looking for. What did I miss?


That the chance of rolling five times nets the same chance each time. Rolls do not affect the outcome of later rolls. Using your numbers:

roll 1: 51% chance for any item
roll 2: 51% chance for any item
ad nauseum.

Having unsuccessfully rolled last week doesn't make it any more likely that I will get anything with a roll this week.
Edited by Vash on 3/9/2013 3:32 PM PST
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100 Dwarf Paladin
15370
03/09/2013 03:31 PMPosted by Vash


I'm not sure I get the intent of your statement. Each attempt is an independent roll of the dice but the more attempts you make the more likely you are that one of them will have netted you the item you are looking for. What did I miss?


That the chance of rolling five times nets the same chance each time. Rolls do not affect the outcome of later rolls. Using your numbers:

roll 1: 51% chance for any item
roll 2: 51% chance for any item
ad nauseum.

Having unsuccessfully rolled last week doesn't make it any more likely that I will get anything with a roll this week.


Oh, I think I worded my post poorly then. The idea is that if you make 12 attempts against a boss with three items you still only have a 10% chance per individual roll to get that item but across those 12 attempts you have a 71.76% chance that one of those rolls yielded you the specific item you looking for.
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100 Dwarf Paladin
15370
03/09/2013 02:52 PMPosted by Hyjinx
You're all arguing with his numbers and not his model. Let's say the chance of a drop per boss is 3% and you roll every week on the same boss. Checking your roll history, the loot code increases the percentage of likelihood that a roll will be successful by [roll*1.000x] where x=number of previous rolls. It could be an incremental change but statistically, for the whole toon population on a given server, a significant increase in drops.


What you're missing is that developers don't want "a significant increase in drops."

If they did, they would just raise the base loot %.


The problem isn't with the low rate of acquisition. The problem is that the system allows for such wild swings of great or terrible luck. I understand that the developers want a slow rate of gain with respect to gear, but there's gotta be a better way to do it.

They got away from the valor system of Wrath and Cata that more or less allowed you to purchase your tier pieces over time because they wanted the sense randomness and elation that comes with drops. However when I get 28.5g worth of middle finger for 20 bosses and coin rolls in a row it really pisses me off. When I go an entire week of LFR on a character and don't get a damn thing I don't think, "Well, RNG is RNG! Better luck next time!" No, I think "You know what? Screw this game, I've got better things to do with my time."

I didn't mention it in cancellation remarks but this is one of the big reasons I cancelled my WoW subscription. I spend a lot of time in this game feeling like I'm just spinning my wheels with nothing to show for it. Stuff sucks, yo.
Edited by Malverot on 3/9/2013 4:19 PM PST
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100 Human Paladin
11940


That the chance of rolling five times nets the same chance each time. Rolls do not affect the outcome of later rolls. Using your numbers:

roll 1: 51% chance for any item
roll 2: 51% chance for any item
ad nauseum.

Having unsuccessfully rolled last week doesn't make it any more likely that I will get anything with a roll this week.


Oh, I think I worded my post poorly then. The idea is that if you make 12 attempts against a boss with three items you still only have a 10% chance per individual roll to get that item but across those 12 attempts you have a 71.76% chance that one of those rolls yielded you the specific item you looking for.


You don't have that 71.76% chance. Every single time you roll you have the same chance to get an item. The number of attempts in no way affects the chance that you will get an item with your next roll. It remains, across all rolls, 10% (say) per roll.
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100 Dwarf Paladin
15370
You don't have that 71.76% chance. Every single time you roll you have the same chance to get an item. The number of attempts in no way affects the chance that you will get an item with your next roll. It remains, across all rolls, 10% (say) per roll.


That's... what I said.

...you still only have a 10% chance per individual roll to get that item...
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100 Human Death Knight
12075
I've gotten 5 tier helms off of Sha and 2 Shin'kas. I really, really wish that we were given the option of at least trading the loot to another player in the instance versus vendoring our gear.

I understand why we can't, a 25man guild run gearing up a group of players at a time, but it just flat out sucks getting the same item over and over and over again when you're searching for that one elusive item and being able to do literally nothing with it.
Edited by Irefusetodie on 3/9/2013 4:53 PM PST
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100 Human Hunter
13305
I've gotten 3 pieces of gear off of 5 bosses today in LFR. Of course, the things I'm wanting out of there, sigils of wisdom and power, still elude me.
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