Shred vs Mangle and a wee bit of math

100 Tauren Druid
3095
6 minute long fight
roughly 3780 energy at 10.5 per second

3780/35=108
3780/40=94.5

108 mangles vs 95 shreds

shred deals 20% more damage on bleeding targets

the math here is using 100k for mangle and 120k for shred

the crit chance in this data is based off of 31% crit, the
crit chance will no make a huge deferance as this is percent
based.
critical hits are 2.03 damage with the meta gem that we
all should be using.

108x.31=33 crits
95x.31=29 crits

Mangle
33 crits
75 normal
141 combo points

100kx2.03x33=6.699million
100kx75=7.5million
total mangle=14,199,000 damage
141 combo points
Shred
29 crits
66 normal
124 combo points

120kx2.03x29=7.0644
120kx66=7.92
total=14,984,400 damage
124 combo points

mangle/shred
14,199,000/14,984,400=94.75%

as you can see mangle will deal roughly 95% of the
damage of shred, but it will generate, again, roughly
17 additional combo points.

Now, as all of this data is based of of 100k mangle and a 120k shred I have not scaled the damage of rip or ferocious bite to those ratios, and as such, I can not say how much extra damage three five-combo point ferocious bites would do in comparison to 5% additional damage for using shred over mangle.
I may be jumping to conclusions for not knowing that bit of data but Im going out on a limb and saying the damage difference for prioritizing shred over mangle, also assuming mangle doenst energy cap you(which it shouldnt with how little haste we should be stacking) is negligible at best.
Let me know what you think about this or if you see any errors in my math above as I may have rushed it.
Thanks
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100 Tauren Druid
12845
Thanks for putting the time in to test this. I've always wondered what the damage ratios were.
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90 Night Elf Druid
9040
for a more exact damage ratio for mangle/shred it's 4% dps loss for using mangle. But as Catpocolypse said we get more energy back/combo points. So it's quite viable to use mangle instead of shred without a big penalty if you are struggling for energy for other dots.

math - 5.2/5 = 1.04
this is assuming a bleed is already on the target of course to get the 5.2.
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100 Night Elf Druid
13700
I'm not sure how others do it, but I rarely use either Mangle or Shred exclusively.

I'll Shred when following a moving mob or in very stable fights where staying behind the target isn't a problem, but I find my DPS dropping off if I can't stay behind a target consistantly. It doesn't take many wasted GCDs to negate the additional damage--even accounting for the increased parry effects, in my experience.

I appreciate the comparison tho, I always feel (felt) like I was giving up alot of DPS by not being able to manage my positioning better. Turns out... not so much. And, it's good to know that "blowing my rotation" by missing a chance to Shred isn't devistating.

Thanks
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90 Night Elf Druid
Id
16045
OP, you're forgetting that even though you use
108 Mangle
95 Shred

Mangle generates 17 more CP, each CP when used in conjunction with SotF generates 4 additional energy. This comes out to 68 energy, which is almost enough to squeeze in 2 more Mangles. What isn't included, is if you run something like Dream of Cenarius where having more CP's/Finishers will outshine Shred's damage. (25% empowered FB can do a hefty chunk).

One final note on the matter is that even though you might considering Manglespam to be inferior, at higher tiers of gear (2pc t15 for example), CP gen starts to become a much higher priority over the 20% dmg buff of Shred over Mangle.
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100 Tauren Druid
14540
Mangle generates 17 more CP, each CP when used in conjunction with SotF generates 4 additional energy. This comes out to 68 energy, which is almost enough to squeeze in 2 more Mangles. What isn't included, is if you run something like Dream of Cenarius where having more CP's/Finishers will outshine Shred's damage. (25% empowered FB can do a hefty chunk).

He's also ignoring that finishers cost energy. Which has a larger impact than SotF's energy regen (since everything costs more than 20 energy).
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90 Worgen Druid
17805
You can't just compare them in a vacuum. There are other factors involved (some difficult to quantify): i.e. making sure you can get a better rip up while you have specific buffs, the extra damage from any extra finishers used, the extra energy you gain from SotF, etc.

Straight up comparison of the damage they will do will not suffice.
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