PCs dying and WoW

46 Night Elf Druid
5085
Let Snowfox lay this flat out for you.

For 20 years I've been hearing that PC's were dying. I've heard everything from Amiga's are coming back and going to kill it, to the apple newton would, to macs would, to consoles would... and now celphones and tablets.

It is not dying.

That's just hype people use to sell page hits.


Nice to see I'm not the only old person here. Some of the youngins are probably reading this thread and going 'what the heck is an Amiga?'
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90 Human Warrior
4220
05/07/2013 06:44 PMPosted by Blackgoddess
are you implying that home built are replacing the decline in overall desktop sales?


Well so far this year I know 8 people that have gotten new PCs. 6 of them had never built a PC before 4 of those 6 chose to go with building their own this time.

Over the last 5 or 6 years it's gone from probably 75 - 80% ordering a prebuilt down to 50% or so. And good portion of those that order prebuilts have switched from Dell or HP to Custom builders like Origin, Maingear, or Falcon NW.


Anecdotal evidence is anecdotal. I tried to Google up some Forester or Gartner data on the subject but it seems to not even hit their radar. Let's go with some gut check though:

Do you honestly think there are more people building their own systems than corporate buyers of pre-built desktops?
Even in the home market, think about the variety of consumers (Grandma wants to email and get pics of the grandkids, mom and dad want to track household finance, buying a PC for the kids for school or as they send them off to college). Do you think a good percentage of those buyers want to select RAM latency and assemble the results?
There was a 14% drop in global PC sales this quarter, do you really think 14% of ALL consumers suddenly started building systems? That would put NewEgg in the top three "manufacturers" of computers, how's their market cap fairing next to Apple, HP, etc...

I see a lot of wishful thinking in this thread.
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90 Human Warrior
4220
Windows 8 is ABSOLUTELY TERRIBLE! =/= PC is dying.

Plus anyone with an apple will eventually explode from too much "local coffee shop espresso" if they don't lose their hearing/eyesight from "terrible music".

More often than not though, they just end up being strangled to death by their own studded belts and bracelets or the feathers in their hair combined with improperly wearing flannel gets them sent to the ER.

Whenever they re-release Windows 98 Second Edition, we will probably discover warp travel and be invited into the Galactic Republic.


Hi Troll

Apple user here wearing a suit and tie and more likely to drink soda than any form of coffee.

Windows 8 (and Microsoft strategy over the past 15 years) is a huge topic itself. I do think that MS misjudged on some important aspects but I also think they'll make some major changes in SP1 (welcome back start button, default to desktop, hopefully better integration of App and application UX). That has likely contributed quite a bit to the 14% sales drop this quarter. Think back to XP though, many people thought the UI there was extreme and too weird. MS provided "classic view" to increase adoption with those who didn't like change. Eventually no one was using "classic view" and those objectors were so in love with XP they refused to move on to newer MS OSes.

I fed you, you got your attention for the day, go back to 4chan and dreaming you're 1337 4aXor because you can download DDoS tools.
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90 Human Warrior
4220

^ Pretty much this. People are learning more and more each day that you can play a system with better options that last longer and can exchange parts for a smaller fee that makes your system last 2X as long as any console will give. That is why console systems are on the decline.


I'll grant you "exchange parts" but "smaller fee"? Consoles have economies of scale in their supply chain you can't dream of as a home builder. On top of that they're typically subsidizing the console with a "razor and razorblades" type of sales strategy via licensing and corp branded games. The price/value comparison on the console is certainly better. If you're just looking for top tier performance I'm with you but be prepared to shell out $1000 for a top end graphics card every nine months or so and replace the motherboard/proc/ram every 18. That's hardly the economic case you seemed to be making.
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90 Blood Elf Hunter
7805
This is just a personal opinion but I believe people are just getting more mileage out of the current PC's they have, I know some still running P4 single cores with Win7 and it does everything they ask with no problem, most of the time they come to me to see if the memory can be upgrade or for a system cleanup but they are still chugging away content.. my main system is a I7 gamer I built, but I still also have a old (2008 I believe) Dell E530 with a Q6600 with 3 gigs and a GT9600 that powers though most things I ask of it.
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90 Human Warrior
4220
PC sales going down reflects an office/professional transition to all tablet/smartphone offices... The bulk of Blizzard's audience-gamers-do now and shall forever on own a desktop PC/Mac.


Now? probably, although I'd be interested to see the breakout between laptop and desktop users.

Forever? That's a pretty bold statement, my crystal ball isn't that clear. With over 50% of "computing devices" sold globally now being something other than a desktop or laptop (tablets and smart phones) and the largest selling App category being games I wouldn't rule out a port to a major mobile platform such as iOS or Android. Only time will tell.
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90 Human Paladin
0
Pre built PCS are declining (your HPs and Dells and Gateway crap in a box)

Custom PCs are booming.
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90 Human Warrior
4220
This is just a personal opinion but I believe people are just getting more mileage out of the current PC's they have, I know some still running P4 single cores with Win7 and it does everything they ask with no problem, most of the time they come to me to see if the memory can be upgrade or for a system cleanup but they are still chugging away content.. my main system is a I7 gamer I built, but I still also have a old (2008 I believe) Dell E530 with a Q6600 with 3 gigs and a GT9600 that powers though most things I ask of it.


There's a lot to that. For home use people are typically emailing, browsing the web, maybe writing a doc or spreadsheet or such. Nothing really taxing. Old hardware and systems typically keep up. Browsing the web could be the exception as the pipes are getting bigger and authors make more use of embedded video or complex layouts and HTML5 based applications (modern browsers have started to offload rendering directly to the graphics card a la DirectX), that COULD push home users to more horsepower. Where I really see the desire for replacement hardware though is in mobile and that's not really about getting a beefier system but instead about efficiency. Being able to do everything we've become accustomed to on those older desktops but with an ARM processor that barely sips power and will run 8 hours on a 1500mA batter. That's tablets and surface RT today, that's the source of rumors about ARM procs making it into ultrabooks tomorrow.

And I've tried to stick with just existing products in this thread but there's some really cool conceptual things out there too (some closer to production than others). Think about wearable computers. The technology is there today but human interface is lacking (input and displays). Google glass is one approach, voice interfaces such as Siri and Glass' own are a step, Kinect type motion tracking (there are systems today that will project a keyboard image on any flat surface and monitor where your fingers are as you type). We're in the midst of another disruptive technology cycle that could be just as revolutionary as the original PCs.
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90 Human Monk
12665
I'd rather build my own than buy an overpriced POS filled with unnecessary "utilities" that clog the system.
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90 Blood Elf Mage
7535
I predict that within 5 years, actual computers will become relics of the past.
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90 Human Warrior
4220
PCs aren't dying. Whoever put that into your head is a fool.


Forrester, Gartner, you know, major economic research groups. But with such a compelling argument as you've made of course I'll go with the random Orc warlock on the internet instead. ;)

But to clarify "dying", desktop sales have fallen significantly over the years and now laptops are as well. The data predicts that desktop sales will continue a slow decline in absolute numbers whereas the global demand for computing devices is on a large upward trajectory primarily via mobile devices such as smart phones and tablets. This is a game changer in terms of application delivery as the creative content producers will follow the audience and produce for a platform that intersects at the best level of performance/features and potential audience. That could easily mean "death" for content targeted specifically for desktop PCs.

Does that help?
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90 Night Elf Druid
15595
Sure PC sales are down. The popularity of the tablets is one reason. But the main reason is Windows 8. People hate it. Basically, tablet popularity skyrocketed and Microsoft panicked when, yet again, they were caught with their pants down. So, in their panic, they designed a whole operating system based on "tablet like" mechanics. So if you are like most people without a touch monitor, you tore your hair out.
Windows 8 is destined for the fail bin with Bob and ME.
Anyway, PC's will never die. All the apps you use on your phone and tablet are created on a PC.
Try typing your thesis on a tablet.
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90 Human Monk
12665
I predict that within 5 years, actual computers will become relics of the past.


Hardly. No matter how powerful your TV's or tablet's processor gets, no matter how small those graphics processors get, nothing can beat the PC in terms of modifications and adjustments.

I can switch my PCs graphics card whenever I want, I can't do the same for a TV or a tablet.
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90 Troll Warlock
20435
PC sales declining is not an opinion...


Statistics without proper context don't mean all that much.
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90 Night Elf Warrior
16465
PC sales are declining. Local to me, quite a few computer stores have even gone out of business already. There's a clear shift to iPhones, iPads, Kindles, games consoles and the like, and away from PCs.


Probably because they don't sell components, or can't compete with Newegg and tigerdirect. As multiple other posters have pointed out, more and more people are realizing that (1) building your own PC isn't that hard so long as you do a bit of research (and we all have that one tech friend that can help), and (2) it's much more bang for your buck to buy the components and build it yourself instead of paying more just to have someone build it for you, or in the case of say an Alienware, paying a $3000 premium for the name.

It's the same thing as when people claim that such and such a game performed poorly, but fail to factor in digital sales. There's an entire chunk of the market not being accounted for.
Edited by Lukar on 5/8/2013 9:21 AM PDT
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90 Blood Elf Hunter
2490
Let Snowfox lay this flat out for you.

For 20 years I've been hearing that PC's were dying. I've heard everything from Amiga's are coming back and going to kill it, to the apple newton would, to macs would, to consoles would... and now celphones and tablets.

It is not dying.

That's just hype people use to sell page hits.


Nice to see I'm not the only old person here. Some of the youngins are probably reading this thread and going 'what the heck is an Amiga?'


us "youngins" know how to right click google search.
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38 Undead Rogue
7500
Let Snowfox lay this flat out for you.

For 20 years I've been hearing that PC's were dying. I've heard everything from Amiga's are coming back and going to kill it, to the apple newton would, to macs would, to consoles would... and now celphones and tablets.

It is not dying.

That's just hype people use to sell page hits.


*laughs so hard his jaw falls off*
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90 Human Warrior
4220
Sure PC sales are down. The popularity of the tablets is one reason. But the main reason is Windows 8. People hate it. Basically, tablet popularity skyrocketed and Microsoft panicked when, yet again, they were caught with their pants down. So, in their panic, they designed a whole operating system based on "tablet like" mechanics. So if you are like most people without a touch monitor, you tore your hair out.
Windows 8 is destined for the fail bin with Bob and ME.
Anyway, PC's will never die. All the apps you use on your phone and tablet are created on a PC.
Try typing your thesis on a tablet.


Some big mistakes were made with Win8 but I'll be interested to see what SP1 holds. The same stories were going around back when XP was released yet 10 years later people refused to leave it stating it was the best OS even. User adoption and change management is just as much psychology as technology.

As to typing a thesis, docking stations my friend. Mobile devices are already more powerful that some of the old PCs it seems people on this forum are using. They have more than enough horsepower to run something like MS Word (Surface already does). Your concern is all about human interface (keyboard, display). That's easily solved. Docking doesn't even have to be physical anymore, it can be wireless. Imagine your phone never leaves your pocket but when you enter your dorm room you are pick up a bluetooth keyboard and turn on the flatscreen mounted to your wall, now you're typing that thesis using the processing power of your phone and automatically backing it up into the cloud. Why do you want a noisy tower sitting in your already cramped space again?

05/08/2013 09:14 AMPosted by Kewngpow
I predict that within 5 years, actual computers will become relics of the past.


Hardly. No matter how powerful your TV's or tablet's processor gets, no matter how small those graphics processors get, nothing can beat the PC in terms of modifications and adjustments.

I can switch my PCs graphics card whenever I want, I can't do the same for a TV or a tablet.


But PCs are already becoming commoditized. The margins are so low on desktops and laptops that companies like Dell are branching out into storage and professional services to try to stem the stock losses. As the $100 PC becomes a reality (in some senses it is, watch the specials on Dell or go the non-traditional route with a raspberry pie) who really cares about upgrade. Toss the 2013 model and buy the 2014 for less than the price of the components. (we'll leave out the ecological impact for now) There will always be hobbiests that want to tinker but the lazy consumer will always outnumber the hobbiest by huge margins.
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51 Draenei Monk
6645
Now here's a couple of questions: does the "decline of PC sales" refer only to pre-built PCs purchased at brick-and-mortar locations? Does it count online purchases of pre-builts? Does it include the purchase of PC parts and peripherals, online or brick-and-mortar? Does this mean desktops only? Does it include laptops? Is this proclamation including Macs?

I am certainly inclined to believe that PC sales are down at brick-and-mortar stores simply due to the convenience of online shopping.
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