Whats yer Server's Raid-Guild Mortality Rate?

70 Draenei Paladin
12385
For a more in depth look at the raiding numbers from ICC to ToT, look at Zellviren's thread on MMO-Champ: http://www.mmo-champion.com/threads/1304374-WotLK-to-MoP-A-Trend-Analysis-of-Raiding-Difficulty

He's even got graphs and it broken all down.
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90 Blood Elf Death Knight
11080
His numbers show some harsh truths (if we ignore the ICC-TOT comparisons). "Essentially, the Throne of Thunder is limited solely to those who survived the decimation of tier 14 and cleared it." There are some external factors to blame as well such as more options for the gaming community but it is evident that casual guilds are seeing roadblocks in current content and giving up.
Edited by Hespler on 5/30/2013 9:21 PM PDT
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90 Human Paladin
17110
Gorgonnash US PVP

ToT (10) = 9

ICC (10) = 156

Lost guilds 147

Yearly = 58.8

Monthly = 4.9

Per week = 1.1307

Were by all accounts a very very dead server. We want this to be fixed so badly
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90 Troll Hunter
14135
@the MMO-C article.

Interesting read. I WOULD like to see a comparison of Ulduar, TOC, Firelands, and ToT.

This would have us comparing apples to apples so to speak in a better way.

I'm just not good enough at da maths to do it myself, I'd screw it up somehow guaranteed.
Edited by Feyranna on 6/1/2013 9:00 PM PDT
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90 Draenei Shaman
10755
Great post. I'm considering moving my guild off of my current server that has quite noticeably gone down the toilet. I spent a bit of time thinking about how to choose a location to move to and took your ideas into consideration. I thought I'd post this information here as it might be of use to others.

I am looking for a PVE, medium-high pop server (ie, I don't want to wait in queues to get on server in the evenings.) I also only looked at servers that are above 75 for US progression and Alliance only (sorry Horde, I can’t help you). And lastly, I took into account the percent loss. This is one bit of information that was not included in Pony’s original post. I think this is probably the best bit of data for mass comparison.

I narrowed it down to the following list. (The first is my current guild for comparison)

Yearly --Monthly---Weekly---% decrease---LK---TOT---gross loss---raid pop---server

46.40------3.87--------0.89--------82.3%------141---25--------116--------3,277---Gnomeregan

57.60------4.80--------1.11--------80.0%------180---36--------144--------4,817---Malfurion

59.20------4.93--------1.14--------80.0%------185---37--------148--------4,313---Arygos

56.00------4.67--------1.08--------80.0%------175---35--------140--------3,972---Khadgar

60.40------5.03--------1.16--------79.9%------189---38--------151--------5,096---Sen'jin

47.60------3.97--------0.92--------79.3%------150---31--------119--------3,948---Drenden

54.00------4.50--------1.04--------78.9%------171---36--------135--------4,894---Lothar

57.60------4.80--------1.11--------78.3%------184---40--------144--------5,229---Greymane

58.40------4.87--------1.12--------78.1%------187---41--------146--------5,310---Draenor

66.40------5.53--------1.28--------77.9%------213---47--------166--------5,223---Icecrown

40.80------3.40--------0.78--------77.9%------131---29--------102--------4,198---Malygos

56.80------4.73--------1.09--------77.6%------183---41--------142--------5,920---Doomham.

56.80------4.73--------1.09--------76.8%------185---43--------142--------5,295---Elune

57.20------4.77--------1.10--------76.5%------187---44--------143--------5,816---Bloodhoof

52.80------4.40--------1.02--------76.3%------173---41--------132--------4,891---Kargath

54.80------4.57--------1.05--------76.1%------180---43--------137--------7,246---Aerie Peak

54.40------4.53--------1.05--------75.6%------180---44--------136--------5,526---Windrunner

40.80------3.40--------0.78--------75.6%------135---33--------102--------4,081---Madoran

43.20------3.60--------0.83--------74.5%------145---37--------108--------4,719---Anvilmar

58.80------4.90--------1.13--------71.7%------205---58--------147--------6,198---Cenarius

62.80------5.23--------1.21--------69.2%------227---70--------157--------6,708---Kilrogg

38.40------3.20--------0.74--------49.7%------193---97---------96--------9,482---Whisperwind

Overall, I found the resulting data to be quite interesting. Nearly all realms fall in the 70 – 80% loss range. Although the realms I was looking at were a bit higher in raid activity. I’m guessing if I looked at lower activity servers the numbers would even be more abysmal. In any case, I think the data is very clear. Anyone else out there looking for a non-ginormous PVE Alliance realm might want to consider Whisperwind.

*Raid population, number of LK guilds, and number of ToT guilds were taken from Wowprogress.com
**Yearly, monthly, and weekly losses were calculated based on Deathpony’s original post method
***Percent decrease was calculated by taking the gross loss/LK *100
((y2-y1)/y1)*100
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90 Troll Druid
6775
US-Vek'nilash. I started on this server in vanilla and recently transferred back because of friends. It's dead here but I'm having fun with the people we can get together.

t15=23

t10=126

Total=103

Yearly=41.2

Monthly=3.43

Weekly=.06596

t15 horde=5

t10 horde=38

Total Horde=33

Yearly Horde=13.2

Monthly Horde=1.1

Weekly Horde=.02115
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83 Blood Elf Paladin
12395
If I did the math correctly...

Korialstrasz:

T15: 33
T10 (10): 141

Gross loss: 108

108 / 2.5 = 43.2 yr
43.2 / 12 = 3.58333... monthly
43.2 / 52 = 0.823076923076... weekly
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90 Orc Warrior
13135
45.6 -- 3.80 -- 0.88 -- Uther ---------- 159-045= 114

And some others --
Tichondrius 273-101=172
Darkspear 173-59=114
Kil'Jaeden 309-206=103
Lightbringer 244-144=100
Proudmoore 303-205=98
Stormreaver 214-160=54
Illidan 292-275=17

Stormrage 268-429= ++161
Area-52 284-372=++88
Edited by Altar on 6/27/2013 12:31 PM PDT
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90 Human Monk
14315
Dentarg [US]
T15: 22
T10: 70
Gross: -48 (-68.57%)

Annual Mortality: -19.2
Monthly Mortality: -1.6
Weekly Mortality: -0.369

Current Status
The number of guilds raiding rose slightly from T10 to T11, but the numbers fell off fairly drastically over the course of the expansion. This mortality will certainly rise following the release of next tier. Less than a third of the guilds with 2/12n+ are still raiding on server at this point (Reality Check, Swords of Neltharion, and Immortalis Rex). Only 3/14 (21.4%) of guilds 2/12n+ are still killing new content and are on server currently. The remaining 8 guilds are 1/12n, some of whom may not be raiding. Below is what I think the mortality will be next patch, excluding Virtual Realms.

Projected Mortality
T16: 11
T10: 70
Gross: -59 (-84.29%)

Annual Mortality: -21.852 (Divided by 2.7)
Monthly Mortality: -1.82
Weekly Mortality: -0.42
Edited by Shiá on 7/7/2013 9:05 AM PDT
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90 Blood Elf Paladin
14705
It should be noted that with ICC having been out for over a year and ToT something like 3 months now, ICC numbers will be inflated by guilds that died or formed while it was still out. I'm not sure how big an effect that would have on the actual numbers, though. What would be most effective is a way to see the number of guilds active during a certain time-span.
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90 Night Elf Druid
16630
I agree that the figures from wowprogress show a drop in raiding.

However figures tell different stories depending on how you decide to look at them.

I plotted out the totals for every expansion that wowprogress has data on for Feathermoon (10 man, 25 man and combined), and the story is more nuanced than the simple linear progression of server death that Deathpony details above.

On Feathermoon, raiding was in its heyday during tiers 9 and 10. Tier 11's level dropped back down to approximately where it had been in tier 8. After tier 11, the "slope of death" has been much more gentle.

By choosing Tier 10 as the starting point and averaging the numbers of guilds lost from then until now tells a much different story than what happened (at least on Feathermoon).

Almost exactly twice as many guilds were lost between Tier 10 and Tier 11 (248) than were lost from Tier 11 until Tier 15 (125).

I would advise those using wowprogress' data to decide on server transfers to take a more indepth look at the numbers than Deathpony's formula.


Pretty much this.

I was skeptical that the overall guild loss rate was really as high as the OP made it out to be. Glad someone actually pointed out the bias of using the most heavily raided tier with the current tier. When you look at how cata changed the game, it is no surprise that the REAL drop was in T11.
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90 Pandaren Monk
12180
Forgive me for the necro, but I figure it would be worth resurrecting this thread, as T15 is at a close and we can more accurately compare participation numbers.

From what I've noticed on all of the realms I've played on, I've noticed a disturbing drop not just from ICC to ToT or even DS to ToT, but from T14 to ToT. The loss is in the ballpark of ~40-50%, and that's not accounting for the guilds that gave up on a roadblock boss that came even earlier than previous ones (Horridon). I've also included T12 numbers as a point of reference for a midtier raid.

For example, on Llane:
T12: 99 guilds with a boss kill
T14: 70 guilds
T15: 44 guilds

37.2% loss in one tier. 55.5% drop from T12.

Silvermoon:
T12: 139 guilds
T14: 103 guilds
T15: 63 guilds

38.8% loss. 54.6% loss from T12.

My first realm, Stormscale:
T12: 96 guilds
T14: 60 guilds
T15: 30 guilds. 25m guilds become extinct, from seven 25m guilds in T14.

flat 50% loss plus complete loss of 25m presence. 68.7% loss from T12.

This thread was created in May, before the realm transfer sale in early June. The population disparity across the board has increased: low and some medium pop realms were left depopulated with many guilds either leaving or breaking up, while high population servers have become overcrowded and faced with queue times. The kills of the guilds that left were still recorded so we may not know the full effect of these transfers until soon. On both Llane and Silvermoon, the top raiding guilds of T14 have broken up.

Another cause is people giving up on raiding altogether and seeing the content through LFR. Not to say that realm population is not an issue, but LFR is an obvious culprit in the losses between T12 and now. We just don't know how much of a contributor it is.

I'm worried because taking a safe estimate of a projected further 30% participation drop:
Llane T16: 29 guilds. Possible extinction of 25 mans because only two were recorded in T15 and the most progressed was 3/12N.

Silvermoon T16: 42 guilds

Stormscale T16: 20 guilds. Label officially changes to low population realm, its competitiveness kept afloat by the US #72 guild present.

I hope virtual realms come to the rescue. I don't want to go to an overcrowded realm but I'm worried about the state of raiding on "medium" pop servers. Flex is a bandaid solution in the interim.
Edited by Spinda on 9/9/2013 4:37 AM PDT
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90 Pandaren Hunter
17375
Lightbringer: 204 (curr), 244 (icc10), net loss 44, yearly 17.6, monthly 1.5, weekly .3

Silver Hand: 32 (curr), 186 (icc10), net loss 154, yearly 61.6, monthly 5.1, weekly 1.2

I also checked numbers for both of these servers at T13. Lightbringer was at 222 in T13, Silver Hand at 79. Lightbringers losses were fairly consistent through those breaks, Silver Hand lost a majority early on and never recovered.

A few things to be wary of in these calculations:

- Towards the end of ICC lockouts changed. Raiders were no longer able to do both 10 and 25 man raids on the same lockout. People had to choose which they were doing. In ICC it made sense (mostly) to do keep doing 25 man raids because of the loot discrepancy. Once this changed with T11, it didn't matter. A lot of groups went strict 10 man, this left a little more than half the roster having to either be a second 10 man team or find a new team.

Silver Hand 25 man raids
ICC: 144
T11: 18
T12: 11
ToT: 6

Lightbringer 25 man raids
ICC: 172
T11: 23
T12: 25
T13: 31

- In ICC I was part of a multi guild raiding group. We had about 7-8 small friends/family guilds that got together and raided 25 man. We had a shared chat channel and the group was consistent. With the addition of guild perks in Cata, we merged all of those guilds into one so we could benefit. I raided with an alt in a similar setup and that group had even more guilds represented. There was a lot of consolidation to take advantage of the new perks.
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70 Draenei Paladin
12385
I was skeptical that the overall guild loss rate was really as high as the OP made it out to be. Glad someone actually pointed out the bias of using the most heavily raided tier with the current tier. When you look at how cata changed the game, it is no surprise that the REAL drop was in T11.


Note the name of the thread. Note the intent of the thread.
This thread isn't about ICC vs ToT (altho both raids have 12 bosses and make for a more linear comparison), it's about what has happened since ICC until now (in ToT).


As a player from Stormrage you should be pleased that even with this method it was pointed out that your server actually showed growth in raid guilds since ICC.

And lastly, if you read my post at the top of this page, it states:

For a more in depth look at the raiding numbers from ICC to ToT, look at Zellviren's thread on MMO-Champ: http://www.mmo-champion.com/threads/1304374-WotLK-to-MoP-A-Trend-Analysis-of-Raiding-Difficulty

He's even got graphs and it broken all down.


Zellviren DID DO a tier by tier, content by content, detailed break down. This thread simply records the mortality rate of raid guilds per server starting from the climax of raiding in World of Warcraft, ICC, to current - which at the time happened to be ToT. This will naturally change with 5.4.
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