Tier 16 4 piece bonus for Fire Mage

90 Worgen Mage
16100
So I was rather unimpressed when I first read this bonus because with the current level of gear the usage of inferno is quite uncommon. I decided to go over my guild's logs and see how much on average I used the ability and was surprised just how infrequent it was. For most fights, the average was a little over 2 uses per minute of the fight because crits from fireball and pyroblast.

Please rethink both the 2 piece and the 4 piece as they are both quite unimpressive for fire. If they were the bonuses for t14 I would love them as the free haste and no cool down on inferno blast would be extremely useful.
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90 Worgen Mage
12410
You might want to repost this in the PTR discussion forum.
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MVP - World of Warcraft
90 Human Mage
10015
If Inferno Blast has no cooldown, you can spam it three times in row and wind up with both a Pyroblast! proc and Heating Up on deck (all while moving if necessary).
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Edited by Lhivera on 6/17/2013 4:51 PM PDT
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90 Worgen Mage
16100
yeah exactly except fireball is critting so much that I don't need to use inferno blast to do that.
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MVP - World of Warcraft
90 Human Mage
10015
yeah exactly except fireball is critting so much that I don't need to use inferno blast to do that.


So your crit rate with Fireball is, like, what, 65%ish? Which would put your odds of three consecutive crits at about 27%, which strikes me as considerably smaller than 100%.
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90 Worgen Mage
16100
I always use inferno blast is after the very start of a fight after that its quite likely that I will a hot streak and a heating up which leads to chaining fireball and pyroblast. I have around 67.5% crit with fireball and 74% crit with pyroblast.
Edited by Henzington on 6/17/2013 5:24 PM PDT
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MVP - World of Warcraft
90 Human Mage
10015
At 30K spell power and 40% crit (before CM):

Fireball averages ~ 101737
Inferno Blast averages ~ 53546

Accounting for the difference in cast time, Inferno Blast's DPET is about 79% of Fireball's. Not bad considering the guaranteed Hot Streak.
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90 Worgen Mage
16100
I am not arguing about the usefulness of inferno blast I am stating an issue with the tier bonus given the relative usage of inferno blast because of current levels of crit.
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90 Worgen Mage
9440
Remember that casting inferno blast often causes us to lose a heating up since we always have one plus pyroblast so we try and avoid to cast it at almost all times unless we only have a heating up present and NOTHING else.
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MVP - World of Warcraft
90 Human Mage
10015
I am not arguing about the usefulness of inferno blast I am stating an issue with the tier bonus given the relative usage of inferno blast because of current levels of crit.


I understand what you're saying, I just don't think the numbers support it.

Two Fireballs at 67.5% crit have a 45.6% chance to give you a Pyroblast.
Fireball x2: 203,474
Pyroblast x0.456: 143,536
Total: 347,010
Time (before haste, percentage reduction so doesn't matter): 6.0
DPET: 347,010 / 6.0 = 57,835

Two Inferno Blasts at 100% crit have a 100% chance to give you a Pyroblast.
Inferno Blast x2: 107,092
Pyroblast x1: 314,772
Total: 421,864
Time: 4.5
DPET: 421,864 / 4.5 = 93,748

You're already up by better than 60% (for those few seconds), and that's not even counting the higher probability that you'll get a second Pyroblast from the third Inferno Blast than you will from a Fireball.
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90 Troll Mage
15205
06/17/2013 05:15 PMPosted by Lhivera
Which would put your odds of three consecutive crits at about 27%,


This is slightly wrong in practicality. To get the hotstreak and another heating up one would have to just get 1 crit followed by heating up, followed by another crit, whether fireball or having to use inferno blast again.
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90 Pandaren Mage
6225
Don't forget that inferno blast does pitiful damage and munches ignite.
I've found in practice that even at my low levels of crit, it's better just to not ever use inferno blast unless it's to spread DoTs or if I'm REALLY desperate for a combustion.
Edited by Warpings on 6/17/2013 5:49 PM PDT
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90 Worgen Mage
9440
Oh yes the ignite munch that it does completely forgot about that. ^^
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90 Troll Mage
0
The tier pieces are awful for fire. They scale inversely with gear and I feel myself casting IB less and less with each piece of gear I acquire.
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90 Worgen Mage
16100
Using my last Iron Q kill as an average. This does not include 5% haste from the raid for overall casting time.
Fireball crit 183k
Inferno blast 72k
Pyroblast 307k
so a total of 562k in 4 seconds with a current just self buffed haste of 5036. Not including haste greatly shifts the numbers.
562k/4=140.5k

Versus 2 inferno blasts
Inferno Blast 72k x2 =144k
Pyroblast 307k
so a total of 451k in 4.5 seconds
451k/4.5= 100.22k
Edited by Henzington on 6/17/2013 6:09 PM PDT
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MVP - World of Warcraft
90 Human Mage
10015
Using my last Iron Q kill as an average. This does not include 5% haste from the raid for overall casting time.
Fireball crit 183k
Inferno blast 72k
Pyroblast 307k
so a total of 562k in 4 seconds with a current just self buffed haste of 5036. Not including haste greatly shifts the numbers.


To get Fireball (2.25), Inferno Blast (1.5), and Pyroblast (1.5) into 4 sec would require 31.25% haste, which means you need to reduce that 4.5 seconds in the comparison to 3.43 seconds. (The reason Haste doesn't matter is because it applies equally to every spell you're casting, unless you pass 50%.)

Furthermore, you can't count a Fireball crit vs an Inferno Blast crit, because Inferno Blast always crits, and Fireball doesn't. If your Fireball crit rate is 67.5%, and you're getting 203% crit damage, you would need to compare them like so:

Fireball non-crit: 183K / 2.03 = 90.15
Fireball average: 90.15 * (1 + 0.675 * 1.03) = 152.83

And then, of course, there's the 32.5% chance that the Fireball didn't crit, so you didn't get the Pyroblast.

Basically, you're comparing the best-case scenario with the Fireball against the Inferno Blast chain, and ignoring the ~1/3 chance of failure, when the precise advantage of the Inferno Blast chain is that it can't fail.

That said, I had forgotten that IB munches Ignite, and that does hurt its case.
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Edited by Lhivera on 6/17/2013 6:19 PM PDT
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90 Worgen Mage
16100
Even with a 1/3 chance of not critting the numbers would still be comparable. Also you are assuming the 4 piece would be up which it is only a 10% chance to proc and this was not included in your numbers. Also people are using the legendary meta so please do not include the 3% crit bonus for the basic meta gem.

My issue is the relative power of this bonus when I compared to the bonus of other classes and the current mage tier.
Edited by Henzington on 6/17/2013 6:29 PM PDT
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MVP - World of Warcraft
90 Human Mage
10015
06/17/2013 06:21 PMPosted by Henzington
Even with a 1/3 chance of not critting the numbers would still be comparable.


Refer back to my previous numbers. The 1/3 chance of not critting (reducing the avg. Fireball damage) and the resulting reduced chance of having a Pyroblast to cast (reducing the avg. total damage) puts the proc solidly ahead. The only thing brought up that affects that is the Ignite munching, which may be significant enough to mess things up. Otherwise, there's no question at all about which is superior, and it's not by a little bit.

The 10% chance to proc isn't relevant to the numbers, because the question is whether the proc is worth using when it is up. (And of course the proc rate is virtually certain to be fiddled with.)

Bear in mind also that numbers are essentially irrelevant at this point; literally zero tuning has been done on set bonus numbers at this point. If testing reveals that the set bonus isn't as strong as they want it to be (and that usually seems to fall into a low single-digit % range), they can adjust the proc rate, add an increase to Inferno Blast damage, etc. Don't even think about numbers right now; focus on whether it's a fun and interesting playstyle change to have a six-second window in which you can force a couple of Pyro procs, assuming the numbers are tuned to make it beneficial to do so.
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90 Worgen Mage
16100
lets assume that there is a 67.5% crit chance on each fireball and that the damage difference between a crit and noncrit is 97k
Fireball crit 182k
Fireball noncrit 85k
85k times 2 =170k
97k times 2 times .675= 130.95k
this is a total of 300.95k for 4 seconds
300.95k/4=75.225k

Based again off my Iron q kill I had a total of 78 pyroblasts so this would be roughly 8 procs so 141k difference between 2 inferno blasts plus pyroblast versus 2 fireballs per proc the difference is about 1,128k or 2,256k if you can get 2 in during the proc over the course of the fight assuming all else is equal. This would be out of 96 million damage. My point is the 4 piece isn't well tuned.

The idea was to comment on the state of the 4p t16 in its current state. I understand it will get changed on the ptr.
Edited by Henzington on 6/17/2013 10:01 PM PDT
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