Diablo® III

KEY drops should NOT

So... assuming that it is 10% chance per MP level;
And you need 3 keys to have a chance at an organ;
And you need 3 organs to make the ring;
And you can't control which organ you're competing for

Expected Runs to get Organ 1:
1/(MP*0.1)*4

Expected Runs to get Organ 2:
1/(MP*0.1)*4*(3/2) ... You only have a 2/3 chance of getting an organ you didn't already have

Expected Runs to get Organ 3:
1/(MP*0.1)*4*3 ... You only have a 1/3 chance of getting an organ you didn't already have

So total expected runs to get a ring is:
1/(MP*0.1)*22

MP # Runs
1 220
2 110
3 73.3
4 55
5 44
6 36.7
7 31.4
8 27.5
9 24.4
10 22


Seem right? Or did I screw something up?

Note that this is expected. Meaning it's the average. Meaning that each person only has around 50% chance to get it in this many runs or less.


Ehh, 10 runs at MP10, or really 9 runs if you make the 9th run in act 1. There is nothing random about spawning portals if you have 3 infernal machines. You just spawn the first one, kill the boss, spawn another in the same game, kill that boss, and spawn the final one, killing that boss; between these boss fights just find one elite pack and replenish your NV buff as needed.
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So... assuming that it is 10% chance per MP level;
And you need 3 keys to have a chance at an organ;
And you need 3 organs to make the ring;
And you can't control which organ you're competing for

Expected Runs to get Organ 1:
1/(MP*0.1)*4

Expected Runs to get Organ 2:
1/(MP*0.1)*4*(3/2) ... You only have a 2/3 chance of getting an organ you didn't already have

Expected Runs to get Organ 3:
1/(MP*0.1)*4*3 ... You only have a 1/3 chance of getting an organ you didn't already have

So total expected runs to get a ring is:
1/(MP*0.1)*22

MP # Runs
1 220
2 110
3 73.3
4 55
5 44
6 36.7
7 31.4
8 27.5
9 24.4
10 22


Seem right? Or did I screw something up?

Note that this is expected. Meaning it's the average. Meaning that each person only has around 50% chance to get it in this many runs or less.


Sorry, why *4? Also since you can open up 3 portals in 1 game, this significantly reduces the required number of runs (specifically at mp 10, you can theoretically play 9 games and get a hellfire ring).

I still think <100% organ drops is a bad way to do it, and also being able to beat ubers below a certain mp level is too easy.
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Ehh, 10 runs at MP10, or really 9 runs if you make the 9th run in act 1. There is nothing random about spawning portals if you have 3 infernal machines. You just spawn the first one, kill the boss, spawn another in the same game, kill that boss, and spawn the final one, killing that boss; between these boss fights just find one elite pack and replenish your NV buff as needed.


Oh... so if you save up three infernal machines and use them back to back, then it will definitely open a portal to a different one? All I read was that you can't control where the portal goes, so I figured you'd have to be lucky to get the "right" organ.


Sorry, why *4?


Because you'd need to to get 3 keys and the organ, and they all have the same chance... but it sounds like there's a shortcut by opening them all in same game. If so, I can rework the numbers.
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Ehh, 10 runs at MP10, or really 9 runs if you make the 9th run in act 1. There is nothing random about spawning portals if you have 3 infernal machines. You just spawn the first one, kill the boss, spawn another in the same game, kill that boss, and spawn the final one, killing that boss; between these boss fights just find one elite pack and replenish your NV buff as needed.


Oh... so if you save up three infernal machines and use them back to back, then it will definitely open a portal to a different one? All I read was that you can't control where the portal goes, so I figured you'd have to be lucky to get the "right" organ.


Sorry, why *4?


Because you'd need to to get 3 keys and the organ, and they all have the same chance... but it sounds like there's a shortcut by opening them all in same game. If so, I can rework the numbers.


It's not a "shortcut". Opening all 3 portals in the same game was how it was designed in the first place.
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Oh... so if you save up three infernal machines and use them back to back, then it will definitely open a portal to a different one? All I read was that you can't control where the portal goes, so I figured you'd have to be lucky to get the "right" organ.



Because you'd need to to get 3 keys and the organ, and they all have the same chance... but it sounds like there's a shortcut by opening them all in same game. If so, I can rework the numbers.


It's not a "shortcut". Opening all 3 portals in the same game was how it was designed in the first place.


Got it. Thanks! I had read the diablofans summary and Blizzard's explanation and neither mention that you could open all three portals in a single game for a guarantee of all three encounters. That makes it better. I'll see about redoing that math :)
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09/25/2012 12:57 PMPosted by GenghisKhan
That is interesting if MP lvl affects it. They stated in an interview that they weren't doing achievements for upper lvl's because they didn't want people to feel they had to get to lvl 10. Seems this goes against that philosophy.


Working as intended then... =/
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Posts: 88
Can i have the key and the organs with monster level 0??
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so i have done the keywarden act3 inferno mp 1 5 stacks 25 runs and the key havent dropped yet. they should really do some thing about that.
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So... assuming that it is 10% chance per MP level;
And you need 3 keys to have a chance at an organ;
And you need 3 organs to make the ring;
And you can't control which organ you're competing for

Expected Runs to get Organ 1:
1/(MP*0.1)*4

Expected Runs to get Organ 2:
1/(MP*0.1)*4*(3/2) ... You only have a 2/3 chance of getting an organ you didn't already have

Expected Runs to get Organ 3:
1/(MP*0.1)*4*3 ... You only have a 1/3 chance of getting an organ you didn't already have

So total expected runs to get a ring is:
1/(MP*0.1)*22

MP # Runs
1 220
2 110
3 73.3
4 55
5 44
6 36.7
7 31.4
8 27.5
9 24.4
10 22


Seem right? Or did I screw something up?

Note that this is expected. Meaning it's the average. Meaning that each person only has around 50% chance to get it in this many runs or less.


Sorry, why *4? Also since you can open up 3 portals in 1 game, this significantly reduces the required number of runs (specifically at mp 10, you can theoretically play 9 games and get a hellfire ring).

I still think <100% organ drops is a bad way to do it, and also being able to beat ubers below a certain mp level is too easy.


Not everyone can play MP10 so those that can't can go fk themselves? I bought the game also and I put all the hours I can into farming and trying to upgrade my character ( which is more hours than the average would be believe me ). Not good enough for you? Tough !@#$. There has to be a chance for all, as it is it is to low the way it is set up. Mr. Wlson stated in an international interview that there should not be a feeling of HAVING TO PLAY MP 10 and right now there sure as hell is that feeling, so they will be rubbing their face in it in an international sense, bad PR. I can do MP2 and that's about it. I have done 8 runs in a row at act 1 with the 5 stack of NV in MP 2 and no freaking key, WTF It's going to take me a month of playing to get one bloody machine!!! The way it is right now if you can't do at least mp 5 you are screwed, you will never see that ring.
Edited by Wamdoan#1100 on 10/6/2012 5:51 AM PDT
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This is Diablo. Everything should be tradeable just like in Diablo 2. This isn't WoW. Who cares if people want to trade so they can actually try doing Ubers? Some people can play for hours on end and never get a drop. It gets frustrating. Just let people have fun and everyone stop complaining so dang much. It took over 10 years for Diablo 2 to be as great as it is and it's going to take D3 time as well.
Sorry end rant


wait..... we should wait 10 years to have a finished game ? AND BE GLAD ABOUT IT!!!???!!!!

logic fail
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What is wrong with MPL10 = 100% drop chance?

Why complaining about the scale up? Makes no sense to me - if someone has the ability to play at that level, they earned the rewards! If you go there under geared, you'll fail getting your 5nv stacks up and have to grind at your comfortable level with less drops.

This IS fair - since the gear required to top level performance is HARD to get - the reward must be there or nobody cares to go there anymore and the game loses all attraction to competitive players.

Furthermore, the ring just got nerfed to hell. Damage output is no incentive and the ring is way not as good as a new rare with 10% crit chance. Upon release even tho I play MP 10 I won't go there but rather grind for gear again till Paragon 100...unless I drop out because my rewards don't merit the time invested anymore - which looks like its happening with 1.0.5.
Edited by MasterPhin#1673 on 10/6/2012 9:26 AM PDT
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Well, I messed up my math. :) I should have been multiplying the chance of success for an organ by the totals for the chances for keys.

The results are... staggering. Probably worth their own thread, so I'm going to make one.
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I've gotten 16 keys from 18 tries at MP7. This is with capped MF, which may help the odds of it dropping.
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I agree, MP levels should not be the determining factor in whether or not you get the items needed for the ring.

all that does is reward people with tons of gear, and gate the rest from having much of a chance of getting the ring.

make it fair for everyone, not just the best geared people.

MP10 should just be there for challenge reasons alone, nothing more.
using MP10 as a means to basically hand people the best gear, only creates a even bigger divide between the starter players and vets of this game.

the game from a item stand point must look insanely frustrating to a new player.... gear literally costs billions of gold, which looks untouchable to 99.9999999% of the player base, gear drops are insanely bad right now, and then throw in the fact that people with mountains of gear, are getting a free ride with these rings, while the rest have to scrounge over the same kills over and over, hoping to just get 1 ring a week....

that will get old real quick.

take the staff of herding.
we're all in the same boat on that one, I killed everything in the caves about 100 times, before I finally got chiltara to show up.
I wasnt mad about that, cause we all had to do that.

if I knew, I was spending hours and hours farming for 1 part, while another person basically had it handed to them, I would have been pretty mad about that, cause it would have been unfair.

its the exact same thing now with these rings.

use MP as a means of challenge.... nothing more.

otherwise your only gating people from having a fair shot at getting a good ring.
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10/06/2012 05:47 AMPosted by Wamdoan
Not everyone can play MP10 so those that can't can go fk themselves? I bought the game also and I put all the hours I can into farming and trying to upgrade my character ( which is more hours than the average would be believe me ). Not good enough for you? Tough !@#$. There has to be a chance for all, as it is it is to low the way it is set up. Mr. Wlson stated in an international interview that there should not be a feeling of HAVING TO PLAY MP 10 and right now there sure as hell is that feeling, so they will be rubbing their face in it in an international sense, bad PR


There is a chance for all, it is just lower. Right now there's a tradeoff between playing low MP quick or high MP fast, and designing your character for that, and you wish there wasn't. There should be a reward for those of us who actually do like the game to be challenging, but the truth is the rewards are still probably worse than those who want to keep doing speed runs over and over until their brains melt.

You do not have to play MP 10, you do not even have to have the ring, you do not have to have perfect equipment, and you do not even have to play Diablo 3.

10/06/2012 05:47 AMPosted by Wamdoan
I can do MP2 and that's about it. I have done 8 runs in a row at act 1 with the 5 stack of NV in MP 2 and no freaking key, WTF It's going to take me a month of playing to get one bloody machine!!! The way it is right now if you can't do at least mp 5 you are screwed, you will never see that ring.


Why!? This is the problem then. You have all five classes at level 60, gear is about to get easier and cheaper, far more elite kills than I do, you play a barbarian, and you can't play any difficulty that is at least as hard as inferno already was? If I can play high MP, then I know you can, but if you truly can't, then the problem is not the game. What you probably mean is that everything isn't really easy constantly and you don't want to do anything different.
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MP should only increase mf/gf/exp - it should not guarantee a 100% drop rate. make it 25%
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Someone must make a statistics. So far I have the following results:
The act 2 warden:
MP0 - 8 tries nothing;
MP1 - 5 tries 1 key;
MP2 - 4 tries 1 key;

The act 3 warden:
MP1 - 6 tries nothing;
MP2 - 6 tries nothing;
MP3 - 2 tries 1 key;

The act 1 warden:
MP4 - 3 tries 1 key
MP6 - 1 try 1 key

It seems that the MP0 difficulty doesn't have keys at all. Also each run at MP3 took 2 times as long as the same run at MP2. So lesser difficulties have 1 advantage: you kill more mobs and get more legendariy items over time.
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it took me about 10 hours to collect all the keys and defeat all uber bosses and make my first hellfire ring on MP5. solo of course.

i think it was quite fast for such a good reward (30-64 damage, 60+ resall, 180 life regen as random stats).
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bringing this up
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