Diablo® III

Question on Uber Key drops

It is my understanding that for you to get a Keywarden to drop an Uber Key you need to :

Get 5 NV stacks before killing a KeyWarden
MP Level determines drop rate : MP1 = 10% ... MP5 = 50% .... MP10 = 100%

I have done several runs in a row on the A3 Warden. my results were 0 keys.

7 Runs were done : Mp4, Mp4, Mp4, Mp4, Mp4, Mp4, Mp4.. and no keys.

The formula to calculate your drop chance ( x ) over any given number of runs ( y ) is this:

1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )

Using the nifty calculator at http://wow.joystiq.com/2010/01/13/drop-chance-probability/ that according to probability that there should have been a 97.20064 percent chance of the item dropping in the given number of runs.

Has the key drop rate been reduced from 10% per MpLvl ?

edit : +2 runs, still no key. up to 98.99223 of the item having supposed to drop
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Further calculations for other MP Levels, assuming the 10% chance per MpLvl is right

Mp1 x 7 runs = 52.17031 %
Mp2 x 7 runs = 79.02848 %
Mp3 x 7 runs = 91.76457 %
Mp4 x 7 runs = 97.20064 %
Mp5 x 7 runs = 99.21875 %
Mp6 x 7 runs = 99.83616 %
Mp7 x 7 runs = 99.97813 %
Mp8 x 7 runs = 99.99872 %
Mp9 x 7 runs = 99.99999 %
Mp10 x 7 runs = 100% every run
Edited by Darmival#1276 on 11/3/2012 7:38 PM PDT
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Definitely seems like the Key of Terror drop rate is not based on the supposed 10% per MP Level
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40% is low, doing it over and over doesnt give u a better chance at getting it because the % still stays at 40 (probability is only an assumption hence the word probably meaning you will probably get it in this run if not the run b4)
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Have ever flip a coin and get 8 heads a row ? it's still 50% chance to get it!.... Think bout it!
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2 Friends and I were on MP 1 and made 3 runs on the KW in A3 at least 3 times with no drops with 5 NV. We then changed to A1 and made 1 run. I have the highest MF and it was around 220% and the key droped for me only and not for them in A1.

This was my second A1 key. So I think no matter what you do to try to get the drop it is just luck. Each run is independent of the last so you have the same chance each time.

The probability may statistically go up with each run that you will have a drop within a group of runs, but each run is independant of the others so for instance a 50% chance coin flip is still 50% no matter how often it is repeated or what the results are each time.
Edited by cosmicrust77#1540 on 11/4/2012 11:51 AM PST
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Sounds like you're just very very unlucky. I've done a ton of key runs on MP4 and have gotten very close to the expected 1 key per 2.5 runs (although I haven't been counting exactly).

If you were guaranteed a key with a 99% chance, it would be 100%, not 99%.
Edited by JackStraw#1836 on 11/4/2012 2:23 PM PST
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11/04/2012 09:23 AMPosted by LetMeGo
Have ever flip a coin and get 8 heads a row ? it's still 50% chance to get it!.... Think bout it!


Yes, each independent event has a 50% chance to get heads.

However, the probability of getting a series of heads in a row goes down on each coin flip because only 1 series of events leads to that outcome ( H= heads, T = Tails )

( H, H, H, H, H, H, H, H )

any other list of events does not satisfy the 8 heads in a row. This means over the course of 8 coin tosses, the likelihood of getting at least one tails is 99.60938%.

Each successive event increases that chance even further to the point that by around the 25th event the chance of getting at least one tails is practically 100%
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This easily correlates to item drop rates as the link I provided shows. The likelihood/probability of getting a rare item over the course of X # of runs is what usually gives game players the drive to keep trying as each successive attempt increases the chance you'll hit the jackpot ( so to speak )
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I believe your math is correct, but your sample size is still a little small. There is a 1% chance roughly of experiencing what you have, and so we can expect 1 out 100 players to have the same bad luck as you.

A random number generator would not be truly random if it did not generate strings such as the one you mention ( H, H, H, H, H, H, H, H ).
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based on my gameplay to get 1 of each key,first i get enough nephalem buff,when i reach 5 stack i go directly to the key warden ignoring all the elites i encounter,tried 4x run at mp4 and i always have a key drop,try it or just my luck?well i hope this will help and also make sure that you enable monster level
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11/04/2012 04:40 PMPosted by jocarlolim
based on my gameplay to get 1 of each key,first i get enough nephalem buff,when i reach 5 stack i go directly to the key warden ignoring all the elites i encounter,tried 4x run at mp4 and i always have a key drop,try it or just my luck?well i hope this will help and also make sure that you enable monster level
See this is the other end of the coin. For one player who fails for many tried in a row, if a truly random (or actually pseudo-random) number generator is being used, there should be a player who succeeds many times in a row.
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11/04/2012 04:40 PMPosted by jocarlolim
based on my gameplay to get 1 of each key,first i get enough nephalem buff,when i reach 5 stack i go directly to the key warden ignoring all the elites i encounter,tried 4x run at mp4 and i always have a key drop,try it or just my luck?well i hope this will help and also make sure that you enable monster level


I hate you -_-

My droprate in Act1 seems about correct. I have 3 keys

I haven't done enough A2 runs yet ( just 1 key )

A3 runs have yielded the poor results I mentioned in my OP ( I do have 1 key from before my current set of runs which was acquired before I did the a1 runs for 3 keys there )

Oh well, time to go do some more a3 runs =|

edit : am going to switch to mp5 now. My dps ( with Battle Rage on ) has increased approximately 20k this week despite going from DW-WW to SWW [ with current gear anyways ]. ( Even moreso on single target since I switched from Bash-Instigation to Frenzy-Maniac for my single target attack )
Edited by Darmival#1276 on 11/4/2012 5:23 PM PST
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I don't feel like doing the probability math further since I have changed to mp5 but..

2 more runs at mp5 with no key

so I am sitting on 9 mp4 runs, 2 mp5 runs in a row where I have not seen a key drop.

* yes I have 5 Neph Valor each time I kill the Warden
* I have base 109% Magic find ( not counting the bonus MF from NV or MP difficulty )
That is 234% on mp5+5 nv stack, but MF doesn't affect key drop afaik
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I must be super unlucky yet lucky at the same time. The only key I have right now is from Act 3 and I got that during a public game which I assume still counts as MP 0 so 5% chance. I got it after only two tries on public games after doing Azmodan runs.

After getting that key I decided to get at least one of each key to try out the ubers so I started Act 1 MP 3. I would get 5 stacks by going through the forbidden ruins and fields of misery. After getting the 5 stacks I would go for the keywarden but after 10 runs on MP 3 no key.

I figured I was just unlucky so I changed my build around and increased MP to 5. After 10 more runs on MP 5 still no key.

Does magic find really make any difference in chance for the keys to drop? And has anybody else noticed keys dropping more on public servers? Guess I should test that out more.
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11/04/2012 06:48 PMPosted by Woody
Does magic find really make any difference in chance for the keys to drop? And has anybody else noticed keys dropping more on public servers? Guess I should test that out more.
No, unless blizzard is just lying, magic find makes no difference for key drops.
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Figured I'd update since my last post.

I got a key on my 3rd mp5 run after that bad streak of no key in 9 mp4 runs...

still need 1 more for set of 3 :(
Edited by Darmival#1276 on 11/4/2012 8:23 PM PST
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Figured I'd update since my last post.

I got a key on my 3rd mp5 run after that bad streak of no key in 9 mp4 runs...

still need 1 more for set of 3 :(


So it looks like Blizzard ninja-fixed you lol
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