Diablo® III

"Key of Terror" drop rate seens a bit TOO low

20 run on MP3 no key. got the key on 21st run on Saturday.
Trying again today on MP4, 7 runs no key yet.

Don't remind me the 5 nv rule, I'm not stupid enough to try 20 times without knowing that.

just do the math. chance of mp4 7 runs no drop is 2.7% and the chance of 20 run doesn't drop on MP3 is 0.08% !!

A1 and A2 seems normal, just A3 is odd.

Anyone ever run into similar issue?
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imo its not worth doing keyruns until mp5 or higher... even then it's only 50%!
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Consider these 2 facts:

1) Chance of mp4 7 runs no drop is 2.7%

2) Each day many tens of thousands of people are playing this game

2.7% multiplied by the number of people playing, means that each day there are bound to be people out there who are having terrible luck on key runs.

Sometimes the experience of an individual may feel overwhelming, but the fact is, it is just a statistical truth.
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Posts: 2,499
Kinda describes the game in general; play the game and find nothing worth while, ever.
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Did 3 mp3/a3 exp/items runs, killed kw alone the way. 3 keys
Chance is 0.3*0.3*0.3 = 0.027=2.7%
Did another mp7/a2 key run, no key.

Just luck. Unless you do mp10
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NO.

The chance doesn't multiply each time you do a run.

e.g. if you did MP5, 100 times, you would not get 50 keys.

each run is independent of each other.
Each run you have 50% chance, the next run it is reset and you have 50% chance.

Toss a coin 100 times and you dont get 50 heads, 50 tails.
Oh, i tossed 36 times and got good head, gotta be due for some tail! NO.
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The keys only drop in Inferno difficulty.
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NO.

The chance doesn't multiply each time you do a run.

e.g. if you did MP5, 100 times, you would not get 50 keys.

each run is independent of each other.
Each run you have 50% chance, the next run it is reset and you have 50% chance.

Toss a coin 100 times and you dont get 50 heads, 50 tails.
Oh, i tossed 36 times and got good head, gotta be due for some tail! NO.


Ok Ok Calm down man, I used word chance, which is wrong. I meant the probability!
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NO.

The chance doesn't multiply each time you do a run.

e.g. if you did MP5, 100 times, you would not get 50 keys.

each run is independent of each other.
Each run you have 50% chance, the next run it is reset and you have 50% chance.

Toss a coin 100 times and you dont get 50 heads, 50 tails.
Oh, i tossed 36 times and got good head, gotta be due for some tail! NO.


btw, try toss your two sided coin 36 times on a roll with the same side! good luck getting that before next week!
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run it mp10 it will drop for sure.
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Just pay someone to run ubers and they provide the machines, no need for keys. Well actually no need for hellfire soon as 107 hits.
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100000 people flipping a coin 1000 times each....

bound to be one or two that can flip tails 36 times in a row somewhere in the mix
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lol i`m doing it at mp2
drop rate for me is like 1/4
http://img546.imageshack.us/img546/3609/52911276.jpg
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just do the math. chance of mp4 7 runs no drop is 2.7% and the chance of 20 run doesn't drop on MP3 is 0.08% !!



Actually none of that matters when dealing with probabilities. You have a 30% chance EACH RUN to get a key, that means you have a 70% chance of not getting one. Thats over 60% more likely NOT to get a key. Don't base it on an average of runs, cause its reset everytime you start a new run. If Blizz said, "In MP3 you are guaranteed to get 3 keys in ten runs" Then you could start with averages.
Edited by RagingKoala#1984 on 1/21/2013 5:49 PM PST
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NO.

The chance doesn't multiply each time you do a run.

e.g. if you did MP5, 100 times, you would not get 50 keys.

each run is independent of each other.
Each run you have 50% chance, the next run it is reset and you have 50% chance.

Toss a coin 100 times and you dont get 50 heads, 50 tails.
Oh, i tossed 36 times and got good head, gotta be due for some tail! NO.


Sticky request.

/thread.
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Someone has to be the 0.08%

And its you.

Nothing wrong with the system. Move along.
Edited by okComputer#6290 on 1/21/2013 8:02 PM PST
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Took my 47 runs to get 3 of them in MP3 once.

Oh well, KCCO.
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Do people still not get what RNG is?
I mean...so many threads, you didn't see one?
I never got a Tiger or Raptor from Zul Gurub,
but i didn't make threads about it.
I never got that blue chicken either.
You know what i did?
I either kept at it or stopped.
Those are your options.
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I'm a bit confused about the key drops. Yes I know about the 5 Nephalam Valor. I got the 1st 2 keys without any mp increase. Is the key of terror unique in its requirements?
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