Legendary drop RNG? - think again

General Discussion
Id like to share the last two days with you. Its just a small test but to me it clearly indicates that the RNG is not so random as you'd think. I set this test up just to try the theory of rested loot, and so I was monitoring my drops and my friends drops closely.

Yesterday i did a total of 25 rifts.
Torment 1: 20 rifts. 4 legendaries, 4 forgotten souls.
Torment 2. 5 rifts. 0 legendaries, 2 forgotten souls.

Today i did the same setup with 25 rifts.
Torment 1: 20 rifts. 3 legendaries, 3 forgotten souls (yes, you read right)
Torment 2: 5 rifts. 0 legendaries, 1 forgotten soul.

Since there has been some discussion about rested loot, I pulled in some friends who had not played for the day. I made them come in and play their first rift of the day with me (only torment 1). Day one i had 8 different friends do this, day two i had 7 (mostly the same people).

Not one - i repeat - not ONE of them had less than two legendaries dropped during their first run. This clearly indicates that loot is not as RNG as you'd like to think.

So what this means is that Blizzard has made sure that basically everyone gets rewarded when they start playing after being logged of for a bit. Now why would they do this? Well, its basically common behavioral psychology. Its the same reinforcing mechanism thats in slot machines - the win now and then makes you continue because your mind is set on the fact that you DID win and that you CAN win more. This ensures blizzard that people will not stop playing. If we, the players, don't get this intermediate reinforcement, we will stop playing. Thus, for Blizzard to rely on RNG would be a bad business move. Yes, we don't pay subscription, but if you play, theres is a much better chance that one of your friends will buy the game after talking to you.

All in all, I call bull!@#$ on RNG-loot.
Did you ever hear about the 2 hour timer for legendary? If not, you just found out about it yourself.
04/16/2014 10:43 AMPosted by Kilmar
Did you ever hear about the 2 hour timer for legendary? If not, you just found out about it yourself.


do you know what you are talking about? that timer kicks in after you spend 4hours killing mobs without a single legendary drop and slowly increases your drop chance
Sample size is to small you are also running 4x the ammount of t1 vs t2
04/16/2014 10:48 AMPosted by Eggo
Sample size is to small you are also running 4x the ammount of t1 vs t2


Its to small to prove anything but its definitely large enough to indicate that there is something else at work.
04/16/2014 10:48 AMPosted by Eggo
Sample size is to small you are also running 4x the ammount of t1 vs t2
Not that small. Plenty of 20-100 random people surveys are done as a generalization for some things. Usually groups of 5000-10000 people are done to generalize things billions of people. What he did ain't big but it ain't small for what he's doing.
2 days at 25 rifts each day is too small a sample size to draw a conclusion. 2 days with 8 different people each day to test the first rift a day theory you came up with is also too small a sample to draw a conclusion. The number of T2 rifts you did is way to small compared to the number of T1 rifts you did. You start off with what seems like a comparison between T1 and T2 drop rates but then abruptly change to some kind of theory about first rift a day drop rates. Finally, based on my own experiences in this game, some of your numbers seem a little exaggerated and made up (the T1 vs T2 numbers). Your arguments are very flawed and your post is of no value. I do like the comparison to a slot machine you made with blizzard rigging drop rates to keep you playing. It is an interesting concept that may be true but your testing wasn't thorough enough.
Basically don't bother continuing after the first hour of farming each day, just do your daily quest and log off. This post should be sticky so people don't waste their time bashing their head against an invisible wall.
2 days at 25 rifts each day is too small a sample size to draw a conclusion. 2 days with 8 different people each day to test the first rift a day theory you came up with is also to small a sample to draw a conclusion. The number of T2 rifts you did is way to small compared to the number of T1 rifts you did. You start of with what seems like a comparison between T1 and T2 drop rates but then abruptly change to some kind of theory about first rift a day drop rates. Finally, based on my own experiences in this game, some of your numbers seem a little exaggerated and made up (the T1 vs T2 numbers). Your arguments are very flawed and your post is of no value.


It's not just the sample size that matters, it's also how consistent it is. Flip heads 15 times in a row then there's probably something up with the quarter or the way you are flipping it.
04/16/2014 10:52 AMPosted by Soul
Not that small. Plenty of 20-100 random people surveys are done as a generalization for some things. Usually groups of 5000-10000 people are done to generalize things billions of people. What he did ain't big but it ain't small for what he's doing.


And if you do any 20-100 surveys you do them in pockets 20 people here and 20 way over there. Increasing the sample size and eleminating the chance of false results. If needed you also run it again to confirm those results.

Margin of Error and Standard of Deviation.

Once again sample size is to small to call bull!@#$ on RNG-loot.
04/16/2014 11:03 AMPosted by Eggo
And if you do any 20-100 surveys you do them in pockets 20 people here and 20 way over there.


If "here" is different from "there", that would disprove proper RNG-loot, exactly what OP is trying to show.
04/16/2014 11:01 AMPosted by Ramshackle

It's not just the sample size that matters, it's also how consistent it is. Flip heads 15 times in a row then there's probably something up with the quarter or the way you are flipping it.


1 person running 50 rifts over 2 days is not a good enough sample to draw any kind of conclusion about drop rates. Millions of people play this game, and many different factors we don't know about could affect drop rates. 1 person doing a handful of rifts is not an acceptable sample. The reason you can draw a conclusion about the coin tossing after only 15 flips is because there are only two possible out comes, and you can look at it mathematically and see that there should be about the same amount of heads as tails. D3 drop rates however are not so set in stone, about all we know is it's a 15% multiplicative increase from one torment level to the next, and its a 100% multiplicative increase inside a rift vs outside one. Neither of those two facts are enough combined with 50 samples to make any conclusions.
why so few t2 rifts? 15 more may have provided 3 more legs and souls (you can't disprove that). It is already known that the devs implemented a timer that will increase the chance of a leg drop to the point of guaranteed the more you play. I also like to think that having a bad rift with no leg drops means I should log out and log back in, but that's just superstition. The devs have said that their Random Number Generator is working like any other RNG algorithm aside from the previously mentioned "tuning" to the drop rate the more you play without getting a leg drop. As far as drops go for legs compared to uniques/sets in D2, the rate seems better for everything. D2 was just as capable as D3 for dry spells (unless you quickly killed many bosses since they had a much better drop chance). There's no reason for them to do something shady with their loot system. They don't make much money from the game between the first month and the next expac for it to be a good "business move". It doesn't matter if you get frustrated at the wall of progression, because you've already paid the box price. It will be the same for the next expac, because that's all this series (the Diablo franchise) has been, a loot hunt and leveling.
If "here" is different then "there", that would disprove proper RNG-loot, exactly what OP is trying to show.


Test A) The OP took a sample size of 20 got 4 positive results.
Test B) He then did a new test with sample size of 4 and got 0 positive results

Once again the sample size is to small for results and doing 20 of one test will of corse yeld more results just because the test was ran more often.
I made a post like this earlier today but it got deleted so we'll see how long this lasts:

Everyone who claims "RNG IS RNG" to everyone who expresses a concern over the drop system needs to take a look at the Shard of Hate situation. The Shard of Hate was obviously bugged and players noticed it right away. Finally, Blizz took a look into it and found multiple bugs. The reality-check here is that Blizz is not perfect and it IS POSSIBLE that the RNG system is bugged. Too many people have noticed extremely odd behavior in regards to RNG with player-specific drop rates, party drop rates, Kadala, Blackthornes, etc. Perhaps we should all stop telling people to suck it up, and perhaps we should all ask Blizzard to confirm that everything is working as intended.
04/16/2014 11:19 AMPosted by TheWitty
I made a post like this earlier today but it got deleted so we'll see how long this lasts:

Everyone who claims "RNG IS RNG" to everyone who expresses a concern over the drop system needs to take a look at the Shard of Hate situation. The Shard of Hate was obviously bugged and players noticed it right away. Finally, Blizz took a look into it and found multiple bugs. The reality-check here is that Blizz is not perfect and it IS POSSIBLE that the RNG system is bugged. Too many people have noticed extremely odd behavior in regards to RNG with player-specific drop rates, party drop rates, Kadala, Blackthornes, etc. Perhaps we should all stop telling people to suck it up, and perhaps we should all ask Blizzard to confirm that everything is working as intended.


this is clearly intended and not a bug, Blizzard gives guarantee rewards to player with a period of inactivity, this kind of design is in every game they make.
04/16/2014 11:07 AMPosted by Ramshackle
If "here" is different from "there", that would disprove proper RNG-loot, exactly what OP is trying to show.


"here" being different from "there" would actually help prove proper RNG-loot. If their results were the same instead of random and most likely different, it wouldn't be RNG
same here the drop rate is really bad the 100% is a lied i havnt got !@#$ i did about 20 t3/t4 rift yesterday all i got was 3 retarded 2h legendary not to mention crafting gem and rerolling stats is retardedly high my gold is now 400k fail game
04/16/2014 11:15 AMPosted by Nick
The reason you can draw a conclusion about the coin tossing after only 15 flips is because there are only two possible out comes, and you can look at it mathematically and see that there should be about the same amount of heads as tails.


You can reduce the trials to a binary choice here. Either you get 2 legs on the first run of the day or you don't. At least one of the following has to be true:

1.) OP did not describe his experiment accurately.

2.) Something extremely unlikely happened. (Getting an unexpected binary result 15 time in a row is less than 1/30,000.)

3.) You should expect 2 legs or more on your first rift on t1 of the day more than half the time.

Anyone have any counter examples? Who started today with a torment rift and got less than 2 legs? I got 2 on mine.
Right. I don't know how people can claim RNG is RNG when the drop system parameters have not been publicly defined. OBVIOUSLY it's not a true random system - that would be basically impossible and there are obvious manipulations to the drop system such as the mercy function. I imagine there really are other manipulations that are designed to encourage players to play more, such as buff the drops on players who haven't played much in a certain amount days, etc.

Join the Conversation

Return to Forum