RNG: Debunked and explained #2

Items and Crafting
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BIG NEWS! Incgamers released drop rates for most legendaries and in their analysis they defended the per-game loot table: http://diablo.incgamers.com/?p=377506

For instance, the whole thing with the game assigning 5-7 items of each slot to drop in each game. That’s a real thing, confirmed by a lot more testing results I’ve seen since we posted that article, but it’s not known how those items figure in with these drop odds.


I also pointed this out in the corresponding reddit thread. Let's see how the deniers will react... http://www.reddit.com/r/Diablo/comments/24ohgx/diablo_3_legendary_drop_rates_revealed/ch959l5
05/01/2014 04:44 AMPosted by xana
Created level 31 game.
Farmed for 4 hours in that 1 game, obtained 2x Mirrorballs on 2 of my accounts.
Farmed 3,000 shards on the 2 accounts which had the Mirrorballs drop.
Spent 6,000 shards total, saw 0 Mirrorballs.

Stubborn and demoralized, I continued.

2 hours later, 1 of my accounts recieved a Mirrorball.
Gambled the initial 500 shards, no mirrorball, farmed another 1.5k shards (2k total)

Guess what? 0 Mirrorballs.

I have followed this thread and the predecessor since its release, following the method provided, not making mistakes.

Well trolled Tealdawn.

I have come to the conclusion his loot whilst decent across his battle.net profile, some images have been doctored is simply an amplification of what he's obtained through multiboxing and theres nothing wrong with that.

I rather my method of farming, its netted me 7 thunderfuries, 5 shard of hates, various immunity necklaces, cindercoats, you name it. If theres an item I want, I'll find it within 3 days of hardcore farming. This was simply a waste of time, but alas, curiosity got the better of me.


@ xana

What is your method of farming?
05/04/2014 02:47 AMPosted by Rage2G
05/01/2014 04:44 AMPosted by xana
Created level 31 game.
Farmed for 4 hours in that 1 game, obtained 2x Mirrorballs on 2 of my accounts.
Farmed 3,000 shards on the 2 accounts which had the Mirrorballs drop.
Spent 6,000 shards total, saw 0 Mirrorballs.

Stubborn and demoralized, I continued.

2 hours later, 1 of my accounts recieved a Mirrorball.
Gambled the initial 500 shards, no mirrorball, farmed another 1.5k shards (2k total)

Guess what? 0 Mirrorballs.

I have followed this thread and the predecessor since its release, following the method provided, not making mistakes.

Well trolled Tealdawn.

I have come to the conclusion his loot whilst decent across his battle.net profile, some images have been doctored is simply an amplification of what he's obtained through multiboxing and theres nothing wrong with that.

I rather my method of farming, its netted me 7 thunderfuries, 5 shard of hates, various immunity necklaces, cindercoats, you name it. If theres an item I want, I'll find it within 3 days of hardcore farming. This was simply a waste of time, but alas, curiosity got the better of me.


@ xana

What is your method of farming?


Just multiboxing Core of Arreat (prenerf), Abandoned Siegecamp till my accounts were geared enough for torment 3 bounties/rifts (I found this to be the cutoff point where Legendaries Per Hour > chest farming). Don't be mistaken though, Multiboxing is alot of work and isn't necessarily better in the long run (thinking about ladders, etc.) The xp loss for controlling 4 accounts is not worth the amount of legendaries you aquire. Its just efficient for obtaining loot. I'm simply doing this in a permanent league (Diablo 3 Softcore) to find out which character I want to play for ladders by quickly gearing classes and see what they require to farm the most efficient xp/loot solo.

To give you an idea of how long its taken me to gear my characters to their current state here is the amount of time played per character (You can see my characters by viewing my profile):

Genja (Main Barbarian): 100 hours 35 minutes.
Xanaa (Alt Barb, abandoned for faster Leaps on fembarb): 476 hours 35 mins)*
Darien (Wizard): 37 hours 16 minutes
Diamond (Monk): 254 hours 53 minutes (Some of its loot is unorganized/in bank)*
Edward (Crusader): 3 hours 54 minutes (Not much to see here, Handmedown Barbarian loot, although its relatively decent).

** = Not sure if this applies to those numbers, but I played both of those characters pre-RoS for about 100~ hours total.

As you can see Multiboxing is VERY effective for fast gearing.

But stop the presses, Tealdawns method CONFIRMED working, I figured out what he was witholding, its so simple I'm surprised others didn't figure it out.

Proof: http://i.imgur.com/WwMG8gE.jpg
<span class="truncated">...</span>

@ xana

What is your method of farming?


Just multiboxing Core of Arreat (prenerf), Abandoned Siegecamp till my accounts were geared enough for torment 3 bounties/rifts (I found this to be the cutoff point where Legendaries Per Hour > chest farming). Don't be mistaken though, Multiboxing is alot of work and isn't necessarily better in the long run (thinking about ladders, etc.) The xp loss for controlling 4 accounts is not worth the amount of legendaries you aquire. Its just efficient for obtaining loot. I'm simply doing this in a permanent league (Diablo 3 Softcore) to find out which character I want to play for ladders by quickly gearing classes and see what they require to farm the most efficient xp/loot solo.

To give you an idea of how long its taken me to gear my characters to their current state here is the amount of time played per character (You can see my characters by viewing my profile):

Genja (Main Barbarian): 100 hours 35 minutes.
Xanaa (Alt Barb, abandoned for faster Leaps on fembarb): 476 hours 35 mins)*
Darien (Wizard): 37 hours 16 minutes
Diamond (Monk): 254 hours 53 minutes (Some of its loot is unorganized/in bank)*
Edward (Crusader): 3 hours 54 minutes (Not much to see here, Handmedown Barbarian loot, although its relatively decent).

** = Not sure if this applies to those numbers, but I played both of those characters pre-RoS for about 100~ hours total.

As you can see Multiboxing is VERY effective for fast gearing.

But stop the presses, Tealdawns method CONFIRMED working, I figured out what he was witholding, its so simple I'm surprised others didn't figure it out.

Proof: http://i.imgur.com/WwMG8gE.jpg


Hi, could you give a tip to the right direction perhaps? Congratz for figuring it out, I've also been reading this topic ever since it started, both of them and have been very intrigued by this. Yesterday I gambled 500 shards to get 2 magfistst and 2 taskers, considering how rare tasker is, this seems that there is some truth to the loot table but this is nowhere near a proof.
If any wizard on EU wants to farm these following items, i got an open game with Vyrs legs and Moonlight ward already droped, i will be in this game until i run out of keystones, which should be under an hour.
edit: removed tag
@cradow, look closer at the image. xana is playing you.
05/04/2014 03:00 AMPosted by xana
05/04/2014 02:47 AMPosted by Rage2G
...

@ xana

What is your method of farming?


Just multiboxing Core of Arreat (prenerf), Abandoned Siegecamp till my accounts were geared enough for torment 3 bounties/rifts (I found this to be the cutoff point where Legendaries Per Hour > chest farming). Don't be mistaken though, Multiboxing is alot of work and isn't necessarily better in the long run (thinking about ladders, etc.) The xp loss for controlling 4 accounts is not worth the amount of legendaries you aquire. Its just efficient for obtaining loot. I'm simply doing this in a permanent league (Diablo 3 Softcore) to find out which character I want to play for ladders by quickly gearing classes and see what they require to farm the most efficient xp/loot solo.

To give you an idea of how long its taken me to gear my characters to their current state here is the amount of time played per character (You can see my characters by viewing my profile):

Genja (Main Barbarian): 100 hours 35 minutes.
Xanaa (Alt Barb, abandoned for faster Leaps on fembarb): 476 hours 35 mins)*
Darien (Wizard): 37 hours 16 minutes
Diamond (Monk): 254 hours 53 minutes (Some of its loot is unorganized/in bank)*
Edward (Crusader): 3 hours 54 minutes (Not much to see here, Handmedown Barbarian loot, although its relatively decent).

** = Not sure if this applies to those numbers, but I played both of those characters pre-RoS for about 100~ hours total.

As you can see Multiboxing is VERY effective for fast gearing.

But stop the presses, Tealdawns method CONFIRMED working, I figured out what he was witholding, its so simple I'm surprised others didn't figure it out.

Proof: http://i.imgur.com/WwMG8gE.jpg


wait so his method does work? what was the problem?
05/04/2014 04:35 AMPosted by Rage2G

wait so his method does work? what was the problem?


Look closely ;)
05/04/2014 04:36 AMPosted by xana
05/04/2014 04:35 AMPosted by Rage2G

wait so his method does work? what was the problem?


Look closely ;)


>.< haha
update on specific item farm:
90mins or so between all 3 moonlight wards (all crappy rolls)
http://imgur.com/ykhuF7f
So, i gave this Theory a shot on the Horadrich caches.

Farmed some time on t3 till i had one stash full of caches and some in my inventory, then farmed 3 caches and opend till i found the RRoG.
I found him in the FIRST Cache i opened.
I didnt leave the game. I opened 45 (!) more caches after the first one.
In the third Cache was Schafers Hammer.

It followed no legendary up. No second Ring no nothing.

Dont know if i got something wrong, but it doesnt feel good to open 46 Chaches with the RIng in my "Loot Table" and get nothing...

Just for the Datas. Wont do it again, its boring. ;)

Dat Beast from EU here.
i just wonder how his profile is actually geared with good mirrorballs, and all followers have lvl 13 wards, and his chars are wearing good wards too. I know his pic was photoshopped, but how did he get these great rolls and so many. and what about that utube video, where he drops !@#$loads of these? For all i know, i dont know anybody that have found that amount of good mirrorballs etc.
05/04/2014 08:08 AMPosted by GankYa
i just wonder how his profile is actually geared with good mirrorballs, and all followers have lvl 13 wards, and his chars are wearing good wards too. I know his pic was photoshopped, but how did he get these great rolls and so many. and what about that utube video, where he drops !@#$loads of these? For all i know, i dont know anybody that have found that amount of good mirrorballs etc.


He has THREE Mirrorballs on his profile...

I have 4 Shard of Hates, 3 Thunderfury's showing on my profile alone, not including the ones I've given to my friends/other accounts.

Not saying I'm better than Tealdawn or anything, just saying the quality and quantity of items he has is no different to any semi-hardcore Diablo 3 Fanatic.
05/04/2014 04:36 AMPosted by xana
05/04/2014 04:35 AMPosted by Rage2G

wait so his method does work? what was the problem?


Look closely ;)


Haha you got me at first glance but I was just hoping you actually found it :DD

Well done sir!
05/04/2014 02:28 AMPosted by xana

Can you even read? Go read my post again and get your information right before spitting pure bs.

Half the people on this board skip information and just plain and simply can't read. Its no surprise this troll made it this far.

Enjoy your level 34 games.


You're right, I misread your posts. My apologies. I still don't believe your test in any way conclusively disproves the idea, because i don't believe that any one instance of farming can disprove it, because RNG/luck is going to play a role in any of this. But sorry it didn't work for you.
05/04/2014 02:20 PMPosted by Daenerys
05/04/2014 02:28 AMPosted by xana

Can you even read? Go read my post again and get your information right before spitting pure bs.

Half the people on this board skip information and just plain and simply can't read. Its no surprise this troll made it this far.

Enjoy your level 34 games.


You're right, I misread your posts. My apologies. I still don't believe your test in any way conclusively disproves the idea, because i don't believe that any one instance of farming can disprove it, because RNG/luck is going to play a role in any of this. But sorry it didn't work for you.


Its alright, as per my other posts it hasn't necessarily worked for Tealdawn either, the only thing its effectively done is tank his XP gain :p
Updated the FAQ 5/4

Main points:

Koreans uncovered master list for item drop rates

Finite loot table confirmed

Bolded first Q/A about obtaining items from kadala above the game level for clarity
Im sorry if this was covered already but I really have to know (i read all of the FAQs and went through 10+ pages on each thread before i gave up, i must be misunderstanding this)

I have a 34 Crusader. I want to get more Fate of Fells, one with a socket/str/+whatever so I can roll the damage to holy and abuse the passive holy cause even harder

If I make the game as a 34, then my friend joins in, then i switch to my lvl 70 crusader will the loot tables change? Or does switching characters not cause loot tables to change?

edit: I guess the reason why Im asking this is I've gotten more WD sets on my crusader than my WD and it usually happened to me when I was playing my WD, got frustrated and switched to my crusader
05/04/2014 08:08 AMPosted by GankYa
i just wonder how his profile is actually geared with good mirrorballs, and all followers have lvl 13 wards, and his chars are wearing good wards too. I know his pic was photoshopped, but how did he get these great rolls and so many. and what about that utube video, where he drops !@#$loads of these? For all i know, i dont know anybody that have found that amount of good mirrorballs etc.


It was? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8pOziq6jTE
As I stated earlier in this thread, I gave it a go on Saturday. It was worth it to me, as there were 3 items on my wishlist I hadn't seen since launch (Mask of Jeram, Carnevil, and Razor Strop) along with a couple I do have, but wouldn't have minded upgrades on (Quetzacaotl & Starmetal Kukri). I had about 220 keys to work with and all day to farm, so given this theory, my assumption was that even in the case I ended up with none of them, I should see signs of fixed loot table.

The first lvl 34 game I farmed for about an hour seeing 6-7 legs that I had no interest in, so I restarted the game about 11AM Saturday. I farmed for another hour, and at noon, a Carnevil dropped. Game on. I took a short break for lunch and farmed for the next 3 hours or so, gambling everything on helms. No Carnevil. At the end of these three hours my interest was starting to wane, when the razor strop dropped in game. I switched to gambling belts. By the time I could amass another couple hundred shards, a second Razor Strop had dropped in game. It wasn't long before Kadala gave me my level 70 version. 300-500 total shards between the first Strop and my lvl 70 version. I actually kept farming (and gambling helms) hoping for that Carnevil. It didn't ever fall, but I'll let her off the hook, as I did receive a beastly Mask of Jeram from her in the process. I ran out of keys about 6 hours after I started this game.

There's nothing here that would have me proclaiming this actually works, but there's an awful lot or smoke to at least be some fire...

One of my prior posts hinted at this, but one of the things I took away from this "theory" is that if the loot table is somewhat truncated and fixed for each single game, then if you can amass enough leg drops in 1 game, you should see a fair number of duplicate legs. I got doubles of the following legs throughout the course of a 6 hour game: 2 Hammer Jammers (both dropped in game), 3 Razor Strops (2 IG, 1 Kadala), 3 Saffron Wraps (1 IG, 2 Kadala), 2 Broken Staff (IG), 2 Andariels Visage (Kadala). There may be others I've forgotten. A pretty decent percentage of my leg drops were duplicates as time went on.

Throughout the course of gambling helms, I got 5 different legendary helms (not counting Voodoo Masks btw). Bling Faith, Andariels, Broken Crown, Mempo, and another I've forgotten... This has me believing that the slots as described by the OP, are actually split up by the catagories in the game guide. If they're not, then that was at least 7 helms in the same game including the 2 Voodoo Masks. I also believe that if you're after a category thats lumped in with something else, you will have a much harder time gambling said item. 1 handers and helms, I'm looking at you.

The last observation I've noticed with this experience doesn't really have anything to do with the OP's theory, but I noticed when Kadala put out, she was usually good for a couple drops. On a few occasions, I received multiple legs within a few purchases of each other. Likewise, there were rifts in game were I saw 3 legs within 2 mins of each other. I've gambled back 2 back legs on a couple of occasions prior to this, and it could be nothing more than coincedence, but I did notice it as odd.

Whether or not you buy into this "theory" or not, there is one thing about this technique that no one can deny: This is a extremely creative way of spamming shards. Would I do it again? Probably not, unless I was desperate for upgrades on the 2 items I mentioned for possible upgrades. It'll be awhile before that happens :)

The irony in all of this, is that I got up on Sunday morning and ran 1 rift. I scored the Carnevil (with crit :D) I was after in that rift. 2 days, 3 items off my wishlist. Considering it had been a while since I had seen anything I was after, I'm satisfied.

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