tinfoil about the rng.

Nah. There were <Viz> people who constantly spammed the thread with negative posts. So it looked like it's not working.

It was working, but then patch changed 1 mechanic and it stopped working.

Do you remember my screenshot with big R made from RoRGs in my inventory, in the time when they were ultra rare?

It was one of points in time where certain <Viz> people lost all credit to me. "Tell me how to do it or GTFO" was their approach. They made TealDawn look like a troll.

It's still same case. CKbrah makes thread abou Wiz being slowest, Jaetch and other <Viz> put trash on him. Then he comes with video. Then Jaetch makes video with lil worse times in which on the end he's saying big boy stuff like "yeah he's [ckbrah] making super doom threads but you see it's not a big deal" making CKbrah look like a moron.

The fact that peeps in CKbrahs group are picking up mats and stuff, whereas in Jaetchs one they do not, is just epic Jaetchs fail. It's big difference in clear time when you do or not do pick up stuff. But harm has been already done and CKbrah "is a moron".

Same case as with Teals thread. Troll for <Viz> and they were very laud about it, truth for people who went to Teal, asked, and tried. I did it personally. Melkor tried, but long after he already put a lot of sht on Teal in that thread. Bad for him. He tried to get the info from me, I gave him major hints. But didn't tell the last piece. He unfriended me later on and thing got patched.

2 cents from a moron RV. Because they made a moron from me too. You might see why I talked trash bout <Viz> then.
How come I haven't found a Furnace since Day 3 of patch? Same for Wand of Woh when I found my first one then.

Oh because RNG is RNG and at that particular point in time your theory wasn't conveniently applicable. Come on Yoda. I will say this my man, if you do get a Furnace, you better wait 'till everyone is offline to ID it. You don't wanna pop US Best Int' Furnace with us on.

Also, thanks for your life story RV. Always refreshing to read your posts brother. Gives me much needed insight to the clan I associate myself with. Helps me know them fundamentally.
After 2.1.2 and the ensuing blood thief mania, rolled my first ancient TnT's from kadala and 5 more regular ones from her the next day or so. Too bad they rolled without either CC or CD but i was able to make up for it elsewhere for one of my side builds. Now I'll probably never see some again. Shame. Still waiting on the BiS SoJ. Hopefully third time is a charm. Finally got my second unity, now i just need the follower cannot die relic, which seems to be as rare as a WoH or Furnace for me. All I can find are the gain access to all skills ones for enchantress. About 5 so far. RNG
01/30/2015 02:17 PMPosted by percydaman
Proceeds to ramble on about RNG, that is wholly incorrect.
Confirmation bias.
And mathematically speaking, you only are guaranteed to get one, if you play long enough. Long enough, might just be 500 years.
There is no guarantee.
Past results do not affect future results, and the probability does not change.
While the probability getting at least one of a given item over a given number of drops increases with the number of drops taken into account, it does not actually change the probabilities of getting it in any given drop - they stay exactly the same.
RV, I don't speak for Viz and they don't speak for me. I don't play the "this clan vs. that clan" game, in case you haven't noticed by now. That's all BS to me. I deal in matters of truth. Teal made himself look like a troll by not giving details of method or at the very least giving one piece of credible evidence that it wasn't a hoax. You and him sounded like spektr does now. Making bold claims with nothing to back it up and the only way to get this revolutionary info is via private message in game.

You were responding to me, not Viz, so I'm not sure why you brought up CK's thread, in which my only post was something along the lines of "I like playing wizard because I'm stubborn." I wasn't even involved in that.
He never looked like a troll to me (unlike Spektr). Knowing lil about his history (other games), I had huge respect to him. The method worked for me, on top. And now knowing him more from clan, I know that I was right from day 1 about him.

All my thoughts about how RNG ain't real RNG are coming from having experience with optimizing software/system under big (big) load. That was IMO the case for the issue he discovered - optimizing stuff. But it was patched pretty soon for obvious reasons.

Anyway, knowing how many design-kind-of bugs we already discovered in the game, I have 0 trust in that RNG is true RNG. I don't even thing true RNG is what I would put into my game in the first place, being the game designer.

It is interesting talk for me from more perspectives.

One is that people defend the thought "rng is real" even though they have no access to the D3 source code. Second is that this game is for me an interesting piece of software/system, as I am a software/system builder. D3 devs/designers know a lot of stuff so it's interesting to talk what could and could not be inside. True RNG to me doesn't look like a thing which really is inside. I would not put it there. I would put something which works with player somehow.

So yes, for me interesting to think about it. :-)
I haven't play much lately and haven't found much. But I will say that it's truly hard to design anything that is really RNG.
Okay, first, it's just psuedo RNG. Second, there's nothing that can be done by you or anyone to trick it. All items in same pool, spits out stuff according to formula, insert 15% non-smart loot. This has been confirmed by blues. Any other tinfoil is just that. Maybe I am wrong, but the bias involved in all these posts shows the truth: Its RNG (which isnt perfect, but we wont be breaking the algorithm without the code either).

On a side note, RV, I just joined Viz, but I know everyone you are talking about, and have run with all of them and have been clanmates with most at one point. No one in fire has a problem with viz, that I am aware of, except awesomo, who enjoys trolling jaetch for funsies. You come off sounding hurt about whatever went down.

Jaetch and everyone in Viz have tons of respect for Teal. There was no need to air your grievances like that. Festivus was last month. You got a problem? Talk to that person/persons about it instead of complaining about it in an RNG thread no less. Im not trying to pile on or anything, jsut giving you advice on how better to handle problems you may have with certain people.
lol rob, I told ppl in clan bout ur post, n one dude agreed on everything u said n other dude said viz would have bashed junger(rules) so badly if he wasn't in viz hehe. thats probably why ck said viz = http://tinyurl.com/d3clanviz

01/31/2015 11:08 AMPosted by Pallis
No one in fire has a problem with viz, that I am aware of, except awesomo

lol wtf? I trolled on jatech even b4 ros anyway. but I don't really have anything against viz(n I probably had most drama with viz members lol) or jaetch cos I honestly don't really gif a fk.. otherwise I wouldn't have asked to join viz at the start(rather than making fire) n probably stopped posting on wiz forum long long time ago. :)

but i think fire n viz should join force n fight dragon cos they are becoming too powerful(#1 for paragon/grift in us server i think) n also cos ';..;' ck shiftily stole two good grift players from us. ><
01/30/2015 12:19 PMPosted by Garyas
It's all psychological. You don't find one, you want it soooo bad, time not finding it seems very long. Once you find one, you care less, don't wait for the drop any more and time flies.

It's not all psychological. There's also the law of large numbers.
Lol, awesomo, the next part of that sentence is "who enjoys trolling Jaetch for funsies" I wasnt implying you have an actual problem with him, just that you enjoy messing with him (who doesnt?). I am all for fire and viz cooperation.

Lance just beat a 50(!) and Unity is up there too with SM. Fire got knocked down hard the last couple of days, 2 in top 20, no one until top 14. The "elite clans" rule the leader board and I consider Fire in that group for wizard.
Yes sure. The combination of small sample sizes and subjective perception of the results leads to wrong conclusions.

Consider the following scenario. Three players are throwing dice, n-times per player.
Player A get's m sixes.
Player B get's m ones.
Player C get's m threes.

Player A would be considered lucky, Player B would be considered unlucky and Player C would probably go unnoticed, though the probability for all three results is the same. That's all psychology.

Or another example. Player A throws 5 sixes in a row. Player B throws 15424. The probability for both is exactly the same. But since the one is something every player wants to achieve and the other has no special meaning, we tend to only notice the first and forget the other.

Yes sure, a player might have found a certain number of Furnaces, but another player might have found a number of other legendary weapons in the same time and no one notices.

If we were to collect ALL(!) data on leg drops across many players, I'm pretty sure those results would be in quite good agreement with the predicted values based on the intended distribution.

All this said, I'm not claiming that the implementation of RNG in D3 is flawless. Could well be that there are streaks and impact of badly chosen seeds. But in the long run, this will be averaged out.

All the discussion in the forums is due to
a) too small sample size
b) subjective perception

leading to incorrect conclusions / hypotheses. And those are based on a psychological interpretation of the data rather than a purely mathematical analysis.
This thread has proved most useful. Showing me certains people's true colors and how they'd take any topic just to put their recycled comments out there about other people.
If they respect Teal now, my fight was not worthless in the end. But it was painful and anyway it didn't work at that time. I still think they don't believe in his as they call it tinfoil, tho. ;-)

I lold! Yeah, Junger rules thread would be destroyed by certain <Viz> if it was not from <Viz>, it would be same case again.


Haha again same as every time when someone brings old times, it's hard to ignore information without correcting it and thread is getting big.
The blues say its pure RNG, why come up with unprovable conspiracy theories? If it was provable, then someone would have run the math and proven it. I have yet to see any such thing. If you want to claim something I, and everyone else with a brain, demand proof, not anecdotes. You know what HAS been datamined? Drop rates. So either those are incorrect because of your crazy reasoning, or thats how things work.

@Brendson (not to inject my own opinions, but just to show you how some people are)
Unfortunately its something helpful members have to deal with. I even got a decent amount of crap from other people in my own frakking gear check thread (28 pages of me going over every single piece of gear, every roll, and every skill from literally anyone who asked)

Keep in mind this guy specifically asked for my advice.

I have always backed up Jaetch and Melk whenever someone has something to say about them. The simple fact is, they are the most helpful people to the community (BDF now too) and, for the nth time, no one in this game owes anyone else anything, least of all sparing hurt feelings. CKs thread wasnt helping anyone, pure QQ, so I dont care what goes on in there. I HATE personal attacks in a game forum, but some people can't help themselves.

The fact that anyone (kiza, apo, Teal, kasper, gripp, me, a whole bunch of others) took even one minute out their day to consider someone else's playing experience, or the state of this forum, shows them to be good people who dont deserve to be talked down to or insulted because they disagree with someone or troll for fun.
/end rant

Edit: Ninja'd by RV - You know I dont have a problem with you, we have always gotten along and you do a great job helping, something I appreciate. But, personal attacks piss me off and put you in bad company with other people who are not helpful. Try to put aside whatever your problems may be with people and at least keep it private.
The blue said many things which were proven wrong -check.

For them it's most clever to say that it is pure RNG because:

- if they would publicly reveal some Drop mechanics
- general forum would be full of QQers about how that mechanic didn't trigger for them

One of reasons why it's best to say "it's just pure RNG".


Fact: snapshot bug was discovered few days ago. If you would see a thread "I am snapshoting my Dot to insane numbers!" before it was publicly revealed, you would call it tinfoil, troll, whatever.

I never do that. There were already so many bugs in this game, that I really wonder how anyone can say "blue said X so it's like that" actually thinking it really is like that.

How can a guy say "you cannot prove its not rng" without thinking "oh but I cannot prove it is rng too" at the same time.

Btw I like you too. You hardly make fools of people, which is forums end game in my book.
... Yoda is so good in this ... LOL. Again.
RV - we have the drop tables. If there weren't drop tables, I would say it is up in the air and tinfoil or not would be even. But, the drop tables are there (some type of proof) vs. no mathematical evidence for tinfoil. My opinion anyway.

I will agree there are plenty of bugs, so they could easily be in the RNG as well. My point is, they are not exploitable due to the fact no one has given any repeatable tests to prove it. Until that day, I dont believe in anything but pure RNG, the only thing that has any evidence in its favor. Of course the blues could be wrong, but I count it as at least some evidence towards RNG. I never believe anything 100%, as that way lies madness and jerkfacedom.
"In the olden days (you know, the days of Atari), developing games with Random Number Generators wasn't just hard -- it was impossible. Most so-called "random" events were actually carefully calibrated to only create the illusion of randomness... Today's programmers still have a similar problem: finding a "true random.""

It's interesting thing.

C standard library uses a PRNG (pseudorandom number generator). You will never get true random numbers.

I was actually trying to make pseudo RNG using rand, random and srandom + time few years ago and it suckd.

I guess D3 is written in C? Adding drop rates, making true RNG for every drop in game for such a huge number of players at the same time is a scientist kind of a task, imo.

The "true/pure RNG" is not the case at all, that's 100%.

But since we all have same environment, I understand the use of word "RNG" even tho it's fundamentally wrong.

/here sorry for English, I just tried to express myself even tho risking weird sentences might happen :-)

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