RNG, my tucchus.

Console Discussion
03/24/2015 03:11 AMPosted by Kelial
The funny thing with statistics is that most people don't quite understand it. It's counter intuitive at best. A 25% chance to drop a key could see you running hundreds of times without ever seeing one.

In theory, yes. In practice, well, let's run some numbers and see.

03/24/2015 03:11 AMPosted by Kelial
Doing key runs you could expect to see 25 keys drop in 100 runs. Simple. But for you in 150 runs only 3 dropped. Someone else could see 75 keys drop in 100 runs and yet another person sees none in 200 keywarden kills.

Odds of 25 or fewer keys out of 100 runs: 55.3%
Likelihood: Reasonable

Odds of 3 or fewer keys out of 150 runs: 0.00000000000039%
Powerball equivalent: 1.75 jackpots in a row

Odds of 75 or more keys out of 100 runs: 0.000000000000000000000014%
Powerball equivalent: 3.01 jackpots in a row

Odds of 0 keys out of 200 runs: 0.00000000000000000000001%
Powerball equivalent: 3.03 jackpots in a row

In other words, although the outcomes are theoretically possible, at some point "rng is rng" becomes an unreasonable explanation, and you have to start looking elsewhere for answers. Sometimes it's legitimately a bug, and other times (as blue pointed out in this case) it's the player making a wrong assumption.

Relevant Wolfram Alpha links:
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=odds+of+at+most+25+successes+out+of+100+trials+at+25%25
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=odds+of+at+most+3+successes+out+of+150+trials+at+25%25
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=odds+of+at+least+75+successes+out+of+100+trials+at+25%25
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=odds+of+0+successes+out+of+200+trials+at+25%25
03/24/2015 04:49 PMPosted by ChowYunFat72
03/24/2015 04:26 PMPosted by InvisibleInk
As a courtesy to the rest of the community who clearly would lack this information. I feel it would be a great benefit to everyone seeking this information, to have it stickied" at the top of our infamous trash can. So it is not lost forever, like the rest of our threads. K Thanks....

If not this thread, specifically, then *a* thread, that can be appended / updated with useful console-specific information. I also think that would benefit console players.


Actually, the information was in this thread, you could have found it if you'd actually read punkee's post.

As for the blue response: no need to be surprised, as this is the only question that gets a blue response but this particular question *almost always* gets one. This is a very safe question and they don't seem to be able to engage in discussions, just give safe replies to positive threads or a small number of concrete issues. Tbh, I find this a bit sad, along with the "OMG a blue response!" reactions, exactly because these aren't real responses. Blizzard is so extremely corporate now that you will not be able to engage with their employees in these discussions.

There's a "Request Sticky" button too (don't expect it to work though). There also used to be an excellent FAQ thread, but someone needs to put work into maintaining it constantly for all versions.
Just remember that the 4th warden is just to get Amulet plans. While there is a tiny chance of him also dropping a key, the odds against it are so great that people are better off not farming him once they get the plans.

I must have killed him over 200 times and never got a key. I got the plans, and even some legendary items but no key.

I did get the Key of Evil from the Act1 warden one time, but the odds of that happening again are rather slim.
Step 1: Kill Keywardens to get keys
- act 1 keywarden = kill
- act 2 keywarden = kill
- act 3 keywarden = kill
- act 4 keywarden = ignore him, he is not important, has low self-esteem and hates kittens and puppies

Step 2: Gather keys and craft the first three infernal machine portals

Step 3: Open those portals, kill ubers t obtain ingredients
- Leoric/Maghda = 1st ingredient
- Ghom/Rakanoth = 2nd ingredient
- Kulle/Siegebreaker = ingre..... NO... NO... another key! The key of evil! Gasp!

Step 4: Gather keys, along with key of evil, to craft the fourth and final infernal machine

Step 5: Open last portal, kill ubers
- Diablo and Friends = 3rd ingredient

NOW you have all three ingredients to craft your hellfires.

:)
Did you guys REALLY do it this way because the crafting screen can only show 3 reagents at a time?

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