Failing 16 out of 24 times at 60%+?!?!

General Discussion
There is nothing better than spending 6 gr keys empowered, and trying to get 10 levels but only getting 8....Can someone explain how I'm failing 16 out of 24 times at 60%??!?!?!? Like seriously this has been happening for a while now and it's very damn annoying.

This is how my RNG luck in gem leveling goes...

80% fail 80% succeeded 70% fail 70% fail
70% succeeded 60% fail 60% fail 60% succeeded
60% succeeded 60% fail 60% fail 60% fail
60% fail 60% fail 60% fail 60% succeeded
60% fail 60% fail 60% succeeded 60% fail
60% fail 60% fail 60% succeeded 60% succeeded

This happens wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy more often than not.. I fail way more when probability says I should be succeeding more...Explain please blizzard. And will someone explain what reason there is to play after getting the cosmetics if you are just going to waste your time to constantly fail on leveling gems?

Also..Why have I only got one ancient bow in 880 paragon levels? Seriously wth is going on this season?
Go take a statistics course.
06/14/2016 12:09 AMPosted by Jman420
Also..Why have I only got one ancient bow in 880 paragon levels? Seriously wth is going on this season?


Really? I rolled 3 ancient Yangs upgrading 20 bows in the cube this morning, you are either the most unlucky player ever or....
Each roll is independent of one another. Fail / success has no influence over your chance of success in following tries. Look at a roulette wheel, the lottery, or flipping a coin. Just because the ball hit black 15 times in a roll doesn't mean the next is going to be red. You could literally flip a coin 100 times and come out with heads 80% of the time even though it's a 50% chance for either to show up. Just because the lottery is now up to $500 mil and no one has hit out of the millions of tickets purchased in previous drawings doesn't mean a winner will be drawn.
heres a lil lesson from a gambler:

if you have 50 percent chance to win 1 million dollars...

getting 2 chances to win the million bucks doesnt make it 100%

#learn2math

#odds

#probability

#noobsgonnanoob
Some gems are easier to upgrade than others. I don't care who says what. Easiest gems are things like Hoarder, Stricken, Enforcer, Gem of Ease, Moratorium. Hardest? Trapped, Powerful, Gogok, Taeguk, PE.

Try it. You guys trust the numbers they display to actually reflect true percentage of chance for each gem?

With algorithms, the people making the programs make the rules.
Bad luck mate is all I can say. I tried to level a gem from 74 to 75 by running an empowered GR 74 (60% Chance) and failed all 4 tries and the second run I failed the 1st 2 tries. Finally got it on the 2nd run 3rd try... less than 14% success rate.

On the other hand, I have had multiple successes in a row on a 30% chance rate...

Just keep your head up and push through the bad luck and enjoy the good luck when it hits mate.
06/14/2016 08:18 AMPosted by Arsenal
Some gems are easier to upgrade than others. I don't care who says what. Easiest gems are things like Hoarder, Stricken, Enforcer, Gem of Ease, Moratorium. Hardest? Trapped, Powerful, Gogok, Taeguk, PE.

Try it. You guys trust the numbers they display to actually reflect true percentage of chance for each gem?

With algorithms, the people making the programs make the rules.


I can't even begin to explain how stupid this is.
Serious......ManBaby here!
Law of Total Probability:
If B1,B2,B3,⋯B1,B2,B3,⋯ is a partition of the sample space S, then for any event A we have
P(A)=∑iP(A∩Bi)=∑iP(A|Bi)P(Bi).
This seriously reminds of a time I was having a conversation with a random (back in season3) he was trying to upgrade a gem with 1% chance and he claim that after 100 tries he was suppose to get one, and I was like, dude wtf that doesnt work like that.

100s of 1% doesnt mean you have a guaranteed one at 100
This horse... It's starting to rot.... Maybe roll it over on its other side before you beat it agai.... wait... no that sides donezo too....

There's no more horse left.
The percentages aren't accurate, I've seen way too many high percentage fails to believe that.
I think you're crazy to do empowered rifts. Just run a couple of rifts instead. About the silliest thing diablo introduced.
are you keeping the GR level 13 levels above the gem? if you do then the chance is 100% for all 3 or 4 tries.
Dudes! I heard that days that end with "y" have success rates that *feel* different than what is listed.

60%? More like 0 to 100%! (Depending on my personal scientifically verified luck)

As Lance deGrasse Armstrong would say: "That's science!"
You could fail 1000 rolls in a row at 90% and nothing would be wrong with that.

RNG bro, learn to love it.
60% of the time, it works every time.
Don't listen to the clowns telling you to take a statistics course. It is they that need the refresher.

The best bet you can do is maintain a log of your pass/fails and submit them to the bug forum. I would suggest you don't submit anything with less than 30 attempts. More would be better.

Join the Conversation

Return to Forum