60% Gem Upgrade Chance More Like 40%

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It is in my experience throught this whole season that the 60% roll is significantly lower than 60%. all the other rolls seem correct (50% 70% 80% ext). I think the 60% roll specifically is bugged. however, chances are chances and I could be wrong though I feel there are quite a few people in the community that have had the same experience with 60% specificaly.
07/22/2016 01:59 AMPosted by Lloyd
OP You might be totally right. There might totally be a bug in this (very likely) very simple piece of code.


I suspect it's not just a simple % but more factors are taken into the equation like completion speed and max reached level, and the given % is more of a indication of what the average for most players/conditions look like.

And go ahead, call me crazy and downvote me. I think it's strange people just blindly accept and defend something without having done any research themselves, now that is crazy!
Over the lifetime of my D3 playing career, "60%"upgrade attempts has been actually 43%. Say what you will, but that is my number based on attempts over a year and over 1000 attempts.
Yeah I used to think this too. Then I started to pay attention to my winning rolls as well as those that fail. Found that it is 60% pretty much on the button. Bad streaks tend to colour our vision...
OP: If you switch to GEICO you can save over 15% on car insurance.
Obviously none of you claiming "60% isnt 60%" have never been to a casino.

You are comparing apples to oranges.

hmm i rolled this 10 times and failed 9 thats only 10% wtf blizzard lies.

Seriously, SMH.
7/39 is 60% according to Blizz. Seems the 60% chance is bogus and they will never admit it.
Why?? because then they would have to hire another real developer to fix one of their many problems and cut into their bonuses at year end!
Have reported this and yet Blizz continues to remain adamant about the BS 60% roll.
Agree with past blogger - if you roll 4 times in one game, you should at least get 2 succeed, nont all 4 fails!!! Make no sense and deters from running grifts !!!
As many gem upgrades as I've done, it does feel around 40-50%.

But 60%, is 60%. It's a chance, 40% chance to fail, does not mean you will absolutely fail 40% of the time.

There are times I have 60% and full upgrade 4/4 or 3/3... So yea... These topics are getting dumb AF...

Just stop.
07/21/2016 05:08 PMPosted by ShogunRob
The 60% fail chance has been posted many times. 60% has been proven to be about 10%.

You don't have a clue, what program are you running to know what percentile you rolled per attempt. Of all your failures at 60% please tell us what value over 60 did they roll each time for it to fail. Or do you have actual proof that at 60% you rolled under and still counted as a fail
08/21/2016 12:48 AMPosted by Duke
Agree with past blogger - if you roll 4 times in one game, you should at least get 2 succeed, nont all 4 fails!!! Make no sense and deters from running grifts !!!

And why should you automatically get a free upgrade. You get a 60% chance per roll. If you roll over 60% 4 times in a row why should you get a couple of free upgrades seeing as you failed the roll 4 times
Agreed with OP, Many many times i have 0 success on 4 attempt at 60 %.
0.4 * 0.4* 0.4* 0.4 = 0.02 -> 2% that 4 fails in a row happens at 60%.
And that situation happent way more times than 2 out of my last 100 tries.

Urshi is a scammer.
Facts don't give a damn about your feelings. It's 60% you can measure it.
There was a huge thread a while back with extensive evidence indicating the 60% roll was in fact inverted for some unknown reason to 40%.
07/21/2016 04:45 PMPosted by Kargon
The percentages are correct, 60% only means given an infinite number of tries you should average 60% success, it does not mean streaks of bad or good outcome will not occur.


60% of infinite tries = ????

somebody failed at math...
07/22/2016 07:59 AMPosted by dyna
And go ahead, call me crazy and downvote me. I think it's strange people just blindly accept and defend something without having done any research themselves, now that is crazy!


The research of people that claim 60% is not 60% amounts to the fact that "THEY" have failed six times in a row. How is that any different than the research anyone else has done? I have had times when I succeeded 4 times in a row. I have had other times when i failed 3 times out of 4 times. I accept that trying a gem at 60% is gonna result in some failures and I am fine with that, because I am doing the rifts to help lesser geared friends and clannies get more gear more than I am to get my gems as high a level as possible.
People in this thread seem to not understand theoretical probability does not equal actual outcome.

Let's say you have 10 rolls, if you have a 90% percent chance of success - it is still possible to fail ALL 10 of those rolls. That's how RNG works.
07/21/2016 04:45 PMPosted by Kargon
The percentages are correct, 60% only means given an infinite number of tries you should average 60% success, it does not mean streaks of bad or good outcome will not occur.


Yes thats exactly what 60% means, thanks for clarifying

Now show me your infinite number of attempts that result in 60% success to show me that the percentages are indeed correct as you say
I've failed three in a row at 90%. I've also hit three in a row at 30%.

That's what happens when you roll a dice. A sample size of four (or four hundred, for that matter) means nothing. If you don't like to gamble. Find another game.
08/21/2016 08:53 AMPosted by Henslock
People in this thread seem to not understand theoretical probability does not equal actual outcome.

Let's say you have 10 rolls, if you have a 90% percent chance of success - it is still possible to fail ALL 10 of those rolls. That's how RNG works.


People in this thread also do not understand that perfect theoretical probability and flawless RNG does not equal fun......
08/21/2016 12:02 PMPosted by tanthil
07/21/2016 04:45 PMPosted by Kargon
The percentages are correct, 60% only means given an infinite number of tries you should average 60% success, it does not mean streaks of bad or good outcome will not occur.


Yes thats exactly what 60% means, thanks for clarifying

Now show me your infinite number of attempts that result in 60% success to show me that the percentages are indeed correct as you say


That's not how it works, Tanthill. The game says it is 60%. The ownus is on you to prove it is not. It is not the other way around. The claim is being made that a 60% chance to upgrade is actually coming out to 40%. This is a hypothesis you have to prove with evidence. It is not the other way around.

Anecdotal evidence of people talking about failing 6 times in a row is not evidence of the stat being incorrect.
Well it's all on a roll. You get lucky then you dont. Some of my experience:

60% Fail !
60% Succeeded !
60% Fail !
60% Succeeded !

or u get the nice one...

60% Fail !
60% Fail !
60% Fail !
60% Fail !

Uggg...then there is:

60% Succeeded !
60% Succeeded !
60% Succeeded !
30% Succeeded !

Whoa...ummm, ok lol

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