07/22/2016 01:59 AMPosted by LloydOP You might be totally right. There might totally be a bug in this (very likely) very simple piece of code.

I suspect it's not just a simple % but more factors are taken into the equation like completion speed and max reached level, and the given % is more of a indication of what the average for most players/conditions look like.

And go ahead, call me crazy and downvote me. I think it's strange people just blindly accept and defend something without having done any research themselves, now that is crazy!

OP: If you switch to GEICO you can save over 15% on car insurance.

Jul 22, 2016
-5

Obviously none of you claiming "60% isnt 60%" have never been to a casino.

You are comparing apples to oranges.

hmm i rolled this 10 times and failed 9 thats only 10% wtf blizzard lies.

Seriously, SMH.

You are comparing apples to oranges.

hmm i rolled this 10 times and failed 9 thats only 10% wtf blizzard lies.

Seriously, SMH.

Why?? because then they would have to hire another real developer to fix one of their many problems and cut into their bonuses at year end!

Have reported this and yet Blizz continues to remain adamant about the BS 60% roll.

Agree with past blogger - if you roll 4 times in one game, you should at least get 2 succeed, nont all 4 fails!!! Make no sense and deters from running grifts !!!

Aug 21, 2016
-1

As many gem upgrades as I've done, it does feel around 40-50%.

But 60%, is 60%. It's a chance, 40% chance to fail, does not mean you will absolutely fail 40% of the time.

There are times I have 60% and full upgrade 4/4 or 3/3... So yea... These topics are getting dumb AF...

Just stop.

But 60%, is 60%. It's a chance, 40% chance to fail, does not mean you will absolutely fail 40% of the time.

There are times I have 60% and full upgrade 4/4 or 3/3... So yea... These topics are getting dumb AF...

Just stop.

07/21/2016 05:08 PMPosted by ShogunRobThe 60% fail chance has been posted many times. 60% has been proven to be about 10%.

You don't have a clue, what program are you running to know what percentile you rolled per attempt. Of all your failures at 60% please tell us what value over 60 did they roll each time for it to fail. Or do you have actual proof that at 60% you rolled under and still counted as a fail

08/21/2016 12:48 AMPosted by DukeAgree with past blogger - if you roll 4 times in one game, you should at least get 2 succeed, nont all 4 fails!!! Make no sense and deters from running grifts !!!

And why should you automatically get a free upgrade. You get a 60% chance per roll. If you roll over 60% 4 times in a row why should you get a couple of free upgrades seeing as you failed the roll 4 times

0.4 * 0.4* 0.4* 0.4 = 0.02 -> 2% that 4 fails in a row happens at 60%.

And that situation happent way more times than 2 out of my last 100 tries.

Urshi is a scammer.

Facts don't give a damn about your feelings. It's 60% you can measure it.

07/21/2016 04:45 PMPosted by KargonThe percentages are correct, 60% only means given an infinite number of tries you should average 60% success, it does not mean streaks of bad or good outcome will not occur.

60% of infinite tries = ????

somebody failed at math...

07/22/2016 07:59 AMPosted by dynaAnd go ahead, call me crazy and downvote me. I think it's strange people just blindly accept and defend something without having done any research themselves, now that is crazy!

The research of people that claim 60% is not 60% amounts to the fact that "THEY" have failed six times in a row. How is that any different than the research anyone else has done? I have had times when I succeeded 4 times in a row. I have had other times when i failed 3 times out of 4 times. I accept that trying a gem at 60% is gonna result in some failures and I am fine with that, because I am doing the rifts to help lesser geared friends and clannies get more gear more than I am to get my gems as high a level as possible.

Aug 21, 2016
-1

People in this thread seem to not understand theoretical probability does not equal actual outcome.

Let's say you have 10 rolls, if you have a 90% percent chance of success - it is still possible to fail ALL 10 of those rolls.

Let's say you have 10 rolls, if you have a 90% percent chance of success - it is still possible to fail ALL 10 of those rolls.

**That's how RNG works.**07/21/2016 04:45 PMPosted by KargonThe percentages are correct, 60% only means given an infinite number of tries you should average 60% success, it does not mean streaks of bad or good outcome will not occur.

Yes thats exactly what 60% means, thanks for clarifying

Now show me your infinite number of attempts that result in 60% success to show me that the percentages are indeed correct as you say

That's what happens when you roll a dice. A sample size of four (or four hundred, for that matter) means nothing. If you don't like to gamble. Find another game.

08/21/2016 08:53 AMPosted by HenslockPeople in this thread seem to not understand theoretical probability does not equal actual outcome.

Let's say you have 10 rolls, if you have a 90% percent chance of success - it is still possible to fail ALL 10 of those rolls. That's how RNG works.

People in this thread also do not understand that perfect theoretical probability and flawless RNG does not equal fun......

08/21/2016 12:02 PMPosted by tanthil07/21/2016 04:45 PMPosted by KargonThe percentages are correct, 60% only means given an infinite number of tries you should average 60% success, it does not mean streaks of bad or good outcome will not occur.

Yes thats exactly what 60% means, thanks for clarifying

Now show me your infinite number of attempts that result in 60% success to show me that the percentages are indeed correct as you say

That's not how it works, Tanthill. The game says it is 60%. The ownus is on you to prove it is not. It is not the other way around. The claim is being made that a 60% chance to upgrade is actually coming out to 40%. This is a hypothesis you have to prove with evidence. It is not the other way around.

Anecdotal evidence of people talking about failing 6 times in a row is not evidence of the stat being incorrect.

60% Fail !

60% Succeeded !

60% Fail !

60% Succeeded !

or u get the nice one...

60% Fail !

60% Fail !

60% Fail !

60% Fail !

Uggg...then there is:

60% Succeeded !

60% Succeeded !

60% Succeeded !

30% Succeeded !

Whoa...ummm, ok lol