Reforge legendary to ancient chance?

General Discussion
I've re rolled my Deathwish more than 50 times and not once was it rolled to ancient.... Did they change something? I absolutely feel like the loot table and chances are different among certain items.
Odds are still 1 out of 10. Sometimes RNGesus just hates on people.
05/10/2018 07:45 PMPosted by Kardinal
Did they change something?


no...

05/10/2018 07:45 PMPosted by Kardinal
the loot table and chances are different among certain items.


ya some items r more rare...
Not for rerolling an item. It's always a 1/10 chance for any legendary item to be ancient and 1/450 for primal (if you have primals unlocked).

You are talking about the Law of Kulle recipe that takes 5 of each act material and 50 forgotten souls, right?

Failing 50 tries is pretty unlucky but not impossible.
05/10/2018 09:03 PMPosted by SoAngry
Failing 50 tries is pretty unlucky but not impossible.


.9 ^ 50 == .00515 or .515% or 1 in 200

From experience, though:
P(crappy item being ancient or primal) = ~50%
P(critical item being ancient or primal) = ~.0000001%
I'm sure everyone here can vouch for that...
05/11/2018 12:13 AMPosted by flarbear
I'm sure everyone here can vouch for that...

Yes, I'm sure that you'll be able to find some people that prefer to believe how they feel rather than what maths tells us it is.
For me? 0% so far.

PS: FFS Meteor. If you want to argue statistical probabilities why don't you petition for membership to The Royal Statistical Society. They might appreciate your staunch, unwavering defense of hard, cold, statistical analysis and probability on virtually every topic of discussion on this Forum. But for the love of Christ, give it a rest here, would you?
05/11/2018 01:50 AMPosted by StonePro
PS: FFS Meteor. If you want to argue statistical probabilities why don't you petition for membership to The Royal Statistical Society. They might appreciate your staunch, unwavering defense of hard, cold, statistical analysis and probability on virtually every topic of discussion on this Forum. But for the love of Christ, give it a rest here, would you?

I'll stop using facts / maths / evidence when people stop arguing that things must be true because of "feels before reals".
You just notice failure to get a good ancient or primal version of something important more because until you do you're being hamstrung with the crap you have to substitute for it.
05/11/2018 03:08 AMPosted by Meteorblade
I'll stop using facts / maths / evidence when people stop arguing that things must be true because of "feels before reals".

Huh.

Facts are nice, but sadly this is a game where we should feel like we are having fun. Fun can't be quantified, yet, the numbers sure do make us feel like fools.
05/10/2018 07:45 PMPosted by Kardinal
I've re rolled my Deathwish more than 50 times and not once was it rolled to ancient.... Did they change something? I absolutely feel like the loot table and chances are different among certain items.


The chances are the same as normal drops. Ancient is 10%, Primal is 0.4%, Normal is 89.96%.
It's a one year old thread. Why the bump?
07/07/2019 08:02 AMPosted by naksiloth
It's a one year old thread. Why the bump?
You just bumped it more, good job! Next time, post something useful.
I think it would be neat if we could use Primal items as a recipe in a cube recipe, because like 80% of primals are complete trash.

Maybe Ancient Item + Primal item = reroll Ancient item?
07/07/2019 12:55 PMPosted by Mumrah
07/07/2019 08:02 AMPosted by naksiloth
It's a one year old thread. Why the bump?
You just bumped it more, good job! Next time, post something useful.


… Do you think what you posted the first time was useful?

It wasn't.

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