Gold to USD exchange rate predictions

General Discussion
The most important variable to consider here is whether farmers will be able to horde gold/items through bots. I really do not know how good Blizzard's anti-bot programs are, but assuming bots are unfeasible due to chance of being banned (and losing that $60 diablo license), I am betting that the exchange rate will settle at 1mil/2USD.

Let's list the ways gold enter the economy and how they exit.
-Gold enters the economy when people pick up gold after killing stuff. No surprise here.
-Gold exits the economy when people pay the 15% auction house fee
-Gold exits when people pay to upgrade crafters
-Gold exits when people buy items or crafter services
-Gold exits when people pay repair costs. Currently, the repair cost gold sink is negligible, but Blizzard is raising the costs to 4x-6x their current amount in the upcoming patch. And due to these repair costs, people will Always need gold

As a contrast to gold, good items NEVER exit the economy after they are picked up.

So while the supply of gold will always decrease due to the costs listed above, the supply of good items can only increase. This means that if there is no RMAH, the value of gold will increase in relationship to the value of good items due to the changes in their respective supplies.
1$ for 3-5mill, while gold ah inflates to the moon.
Do we know what the exchange rate is going to be?
You have misunderstanding about bots.

Blizzard's anti-bots would not be able to pick up the execution of most bots on condition that the operator of them doesn't cause trouble due to his greed.(ex: 24 hours full execution, only one execution pattern.)

He would adopt random access pattern and random control patterns.

Picking up them is impossible.

Thanks to bot program, money and item will explode. I bet it.

Picking up them is impossible.


What about Warden?

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